Sunday, September 27, 2009

Comparing the polls with the computer rankings

After 4 weeks of the season, you'd like to think both a computer ratings system and the poll voters have enough information to make a fair estimation of the rating/ranking of the top-25.  So, I thought I'd compare several polls and rating systems below to see if there was any consistency.  For the purposes of this comparison I'm using the AP and Coaches polls along with my computer and the Sagarin Predictor computer ratings.

Team AP Coaches Schmidt Sagarin
Florida 1 1 6 1
Texas 2 2 8 7
Alabama 3 3 1 8
LSU 4 4 21 12
Boise State 5 5 2 5
Virginia Tech 6 6 4 4
USC 7 7 19 3
Oklahoma 8 8 12 2
Ohio State 9 9 25 6
Cincinnati 10 11 11 13
TCU 11 10 9 16
Houston 12 15 16 49
Iowa 13 17 5 11
Oklahoma State 14 12 36 39
Penn State 15 13 30 17
Oregon 16 25 10 9
Miami 17 21 13 23
Kansas 18 16 31 42
Georgia 19 14 34 27
BYU 20 21 33 15
Mississippi 21 18 27 44
Michigan 22 20 48 45
Nebraska 23 24 7 10
California 24 19 28 18
Georgia Tech 25 26 18 22

In the top-10, the standout differences in the top-10 are that LSU, #4 in both polls, is #21 and #12 in the computers.  And my computer is not nearly as impressed by USC and Ohio State as the polls and Sagarin.  And interestingly Sagarin has 1-loss Oklahoma rated #2!

Outside the top-10 Sagarin also doesn't like Houston while the polls and my computer are pretty consistent there.  My computer is ready to anoint Iowa as the best in the Big-Televen but the others are not.  The computers are consistent in saying that Oklahoma State, Kansas, Georgia, and Michigan are overrated in the polls and that Oregon and Nebraska are a bit underrated.

An interesting comparison.  What do you think?