Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Only 2 teams are presently projected to finish undefeated; Boise State and Florida. Four others have a decent shot at it. Obviously, this is based on just a single game played by most teams so it will likely change in the upcoming weeks.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Boise St | 13-0 | 47.9 | 0.0 | 39.2 |
| Florida | 12-0 | 46.8 | 0.0 | 38.1 |
| Penn State | 11-1 | 40.9 | 32.3 | 20.6 |
| Alabama | 11-1 | 45.0 | 26.9 | 22.3 |
| Cincinnati | 11-1 | 38.5 | 18.1 | 30.3 |
| Southern Cal | 11-1 | 35.1 | 16.6 | 30.1 |
| TCU | 10-2 | 33.3 | 32.9 | 16.5 |
| Mississippi | 10-2 | 33.0 | 29.7 | 19.0 |
| Brigham Young | 10-2 | 32.2 | 26.4 | 21.3 |
| Texas | 10-2 | 34.5 | 25.8 | 22.7 |
| California | 10-2 | 32.1 | 20.8 | 25.7 |
| Buffalo | 10-2 | 30.0 | 18.1 | 26.9 |
| Utah | 10-2 | 35.0 | 18.0 | 29.9 |
| Missouri | 10-2 | 29.7 | 16.4 | 28.1 |
| Oklahoma St | 10-2 | 30.6 | 16.3 | 28.9 |
| Navy | 10-3 | 33.9 | 17.1 | 29.2 |
| Ohio State | 9-3 | 32.4 | 32.2 | 16.2 |
| Bowling Green | 9-3 | 36.2 | 24.1 | 23.7 |
| Nebraska | 9-3 | 30.2 | 20.9 | 24.9 |
| Notre Dame | 9-3 | 28.6 | 20.5 | 23.9 |
| Michigan St | 9-3 | 29.2 | 20.4 | 24.4 |
| Oklahoma | 9-3 | 30.0 | 18.2 | 26.9 |
| Miami FL | 9-3 | 28.7 | 18.2 | 26.3 |
| South Florida | 9-3 | 28.0 | 18.0 | 26.0 |
| Houston | 8-4 | 28.0 | 27.5 | 17.1 |
| Tulsa | 8-4 | 27.8 | 27.5 | 17.0 |
| Boston College | 8-4 | 28.5 | 23.2 | 21.3 |
| Clemson | 8-4 | 27.1 | 22.1 | 21.2 |
| Arizona | 8-4 | 29.9 | 22.0 | 23.5 |
| Virginia Tech | 8-4 | 27.5 | 21.8 | 22.0 |
| North Carolina | 8-4 | 26.9 | 20.6 | 22.5 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 8-4 | 27.5 | 19.5 | 24.0 |
| West Virginia | 8-4 | 29.0 | 19.3 | 25.4 |
| Texas Tech | 8-4 | 28.7 | 19.3 | 25.1 |
| Northwestern | 8-4 | 29.9 | 18.7 | 26.6 |
| Oregon | 8-4 | 28.3 | 18.6 | 25.4 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 27.4 | 16.8 | 26.2 |
| Fresno St | 7-5 | 28.2 | 27.8 | 16.9 |
| Colorado St | 7-5 | 28.6 | 27.4 | 17.5 |
| Auburn | 7-5 | 27.3 | 27.1 | 16.3 |
| LSU | 7-5 | 32.9 | 26.4 | 20.9 |
| South Carolina | 7-5 | 27.7 | 26.2 | 17.6 |
| Georgia | 7-5 | 27.4 | 25.4 | 18.6 |
| Oregon St | 7-5 | 28.3 | 25.1 | 19.2 |
| Kansas | 7-5 | 29.1 | 24.8 | 19.9 |
| Iowa | 7-5 | 27.6 | 24.7 | 19.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 7-5 | 25.3 | 24.0 | 17.7 |
| East Carolina | 7-5 | 27.2 | 23.4 | 19.9 |
| Wisconsin | 7-5 | 25.8 | 22.3 | 19.9 |
| Connecticut | 7-5 | 29.1 | 21.7 | 23.4 |
| Air Force | 7-5 | 31.6 | 21.3 | 24.9 |
| Rutgers | 7-5 | 27.7 | 19.7 | 24.2 |
| Akron | 7-5 | 30.5 | 19.1 | 26.5 |
| Michigan | 7-5 | 29.2 | 18.7 | 26.7 |
| Georgia Tech | 7-5 | 24.4 | 18.6 | 22.1 |
| Southern Miss | 7-5 | 26.1 | 17.3 | 25.0 |
| Baylor | 7-5 | 27.4 | 16.6 | 27.3 |
| Kentucky | 6-6 | 30.9 | 29.1 | 16.1 |
| Tennessee | 6-6 | 28.5 | 27.4 | 17.2 |
| North Texas | 6-6 | 25.0 | 24.4 | 17.0 |
| Texas A&M | 6-6 | 29.4 | 24.3 | 20.9 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 6-6 | 25.3 | 24.3 | 17.4 |
| Temple | 6-6 | 30.2 | 23.4 | 22.3 |
| Stanford | 6-6 | 28.1 | 22.9 | 21.1 |
| Army | 6-6 | 28.7 | 22.1 | 22.6 |
| Central Michigan | 6-6 | 33.2 | 21.9 | 25.4 |
| Troy | 6-6 | 26.8 | 20.9 | 22.2 |
| Purdue | 6-6 | 26.1 | 20.4 | 22.1 |
| Vanderbilt | 6-6 | 27.8 | 20.1 | 23.9 |
| Florida St | 6-6 | 27.2 | 19.1 | 24.3 |
| North Carolina St | 6-6 | 27.7 | 18.5 | 25.5 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 6-6 | 27.3 | 18.2 | 25.4 |
| Arkansas St | 6-6 | 25.3 | 17.5 | 24.3 |
| Arizona St | 6-6 | 28.4 | 17.0 | 27.8 |
| Wake Forest | 6-6 | 25.3 | 16.5 | 25.2 |
| Hawaii | 6-7 | 25.2 | 23.8 | 17.6 |
| UNLV | 5-7 | 27.0 | 26.8 | 16.3 |
| Arkansas | 5-7 | 30.5 | 26.4 | 19.3 |
| Western Michigan | 5-7 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 18.2 |
| Utah St | 5-7 | 28.1 | 25.0 | 19.2 |
| Minnesota | 5-7 | 28.2 | 23.9 | 20.2 |
| UCLA | 5-7 | 29.3 | 23.3 | 21.5 |
| Florida Int'l | 5-7 | 26.0 | 23.2 | 19.2 |
| Nevada | 5-7 | 27.6 | 22.2 | 21.5 |
| Marshall | 5-7 | 27.6 | 22.0 | 21.7 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 5-7 | 25.5 | 21.4 | 20.5 |
| Kansas St | 5-7 | 29.6 | 20.8 | 24.9 |
| UTEP | 5-7 | 26.4 | 20.0 | 22.7 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5-7 | 26.5 | 18.9 | 24.0 |
| San Jose St | 5-7 | 28.6 | 18.3 | 26.3 |
| Kent St | 4-8 | 30.8 | 27.4 | 17.9 |
| Iowa St | 4-8 | 28.7 | 27.3 | 17.0 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-8 | 32.0 | 27.1 | 19.6 |
| Ohio U. | 4-8 | 28.4 | 26.9 | 17.4 |
| Central Florida | 4-8 | 28.8 | 25.8 | 18.4 |
| Ball St | 4-8 | 26.6 | 25.8 | 16.8 |
| Wyoming | 4-8 | 30.0 | 25.1 | 20.3 |
| Maryland | 4-8 | 25.3 | 24.5 | 16.9 |
| Memphis | 4-8 | 27.5 | 24.4 | 19.1 |
| Idaho | 4-8 | 27.2 | 23.9 | 19.3 |
| Duke | 4-8 | 28.1 | 23.8 | 20.3 |
| Rice | 4-8 | 29.0 | 23.5 | 21.1 |
| Illinois | 4-8 | 30.1 | 21.3 | 24.7 |
| Virginia | 3-9 | 29.2 | 23.5 | 21.4 |
| Toledo | 3-9 | 29.3 | 23.3 | 21.7 |
| San Diego St | 3-9 | 32.0 | 22.9 | 23.9 |
| Syracuse | 3-9 | 34.1 | 22.8 | 25.1 |
| Mississippi St | 3-9 | 32.0 | 22.6 | 24.8 |
| SMU | 3-9 | 34.7 | 22.5 | 26.0 |
| Colorado | 3-9 | 30.4 | 21.5 | 24.5 |
| New Mexico | 3-9 | 30.7 | 20.2 | 26.4 |
| Tulane | 3-9 | 30.2 | 18.3 | 28.5 |
| Indiana | 3-9 | 31.8 | 18.2 | 30.2 |
| Louisville | 2-10 | 38.8 | 28.6 | 20.2 |
| Washington | 2-10 | 42.8 | 19.3 | 27.9 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-10 | 31.8 | 17.0 | 31.7 |
| New Mexico St | 2-11 | 36.5 | 20.5 | 30.1 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 33.3 | 33.0 | 12.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 1-11 | 33.9 | 29.2 | 17.1 |
| Miami OH | 1-11 | 44.8 | 16.8 | 35.2 |
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