Monday, September 7, 2009

2009 Week 1 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 1 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Only 2 teams are presently projected to finish undefeated; Boise State and Florida.  Four others have a decent shot at it.  Obviously, this is based on just a single game played by most teams so it will likely change in the upcoming weeks.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Boise St 13-0 47.9 0.0 39.2
Florida 12-0 46.8 0.0 38.1
Penn State 11-1 40.9 32.3 20.6
Alabama 11-1 45.0 26.9 22.3
Cincinnati 11-1 38.5 18.1 30.3
Southern Cal 11-1 35.1 16.6 30.1
TCU 10-2 33.3 32.9 16.5
Mississippi 10-2 33.0 29.7 19.0
Brigham Young 10-2 32.2 26.4 21.3
Texas 10-2 34.5 25.8 22.7
California 10-2 32.1 20.8 25.7
Buffalo 10-2 30.0 18.1 26.9
Utah 10-2 35.0 18.0 29.9
Missouri 10-2 29.7 16.4 28.1
Oklahoma St 10-2 30.6 16.3 28.9
Navy 10-3 33.9 17.1 29.2
Ohio State 9-3 32.4 32.2 16.2
Bowling Green 9-3 36.2 24.1 23.7
Nebraska 9-3 30.2 20.9 24.9
Notre Dame 9-3 28.6 20.5 23.9
Michigan St 9-3 29.2 20.4 24.4
Oklahoma 9-3 30.0 18.2 26.9
Miami FL 9-3 28.7 18.2 26.3
South Florida 9-3 28.0 18.0 26.0
Houston 8-4 28.0 27.5 17.1
Tulsa 8-4 27.8 27.5 17.0
Boston College 8-4 28.5 23.2 21.3
Clemson 8-4 27.1 22.1 21.2
Arizona 8-4 29.9 22.0 23.5
Virginia Tech 8-4 27.5 21.8 22.0
North Carolina 8-4 26.9 20.6 22.5
Alabama-Birmingham 8-4 27.5 19.5 24.0
West Virginia 8-4 29.0 19.3 25.4
Texas Tech 8-4 28.7 19.3 25.1
Northwestern 8-4 29.9 18.7 26.6
Oregon 8-4 28.3 18.6 25.4
Northern Illinois 8-4 27.4 16.8 26.2
Fresno St 7-5 28.2 27.8 16.9
Colorado St 7-5 28.6 27.4 17.5
Auburn 7-5 27.3 27.1 16.3
LSU 7-5 32.9 26.4 20.9
South Carolina 7-5 27.7 26.2 17.6
Georgia 7-5 27.4 25.4 18.6
Oregon St 7-5 28.3 25.1 19.2
Kansas 7-5 29.1 24.8 19.9
Iowa 7-5 27.6 24.7 19.1
Pittsburgh 7-5 25.3 24.0 17.7
East Carolina 7-5 27.2 23.4 19.9
Wisconsin 7-5 25.8 22.3 19.9
Connecticut 7-5 29.1 21.7 23.4
Air Force 7-5 31.6 21.3 24.9
Rutgers 7-5 27.7 19.7 24.2
Akron 7-5 30.5 19.1 26.5
Michigan 7-5 29.2 18.7 26.7
Georgia Tech 7-5 24.4 18.6 22.1
Southern Miss 7-5 26.1 17.3 25.0
Baylor 7-5 27.4 16.6 27.3
Kentucky 6-6 30.9 29.1 16.1
Tennessee 6-6 28.5 27.4 17.2
North Texas 6-6 25.0 24.4 17.0
Texas A&M 6-6 29.4 24.3 20.9
Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 25.3 24.3 17.4
Temple 6-6 30.2 23.4 22.3
Stanford 6-6 28.1 22.9 21.1
Army 6-6 28.7 22.1 22.6
Central Michigan 6-6 33.2 21.9 25.4
Troy 6-6 26.8 20.9 22.2
Purdue 6-6 26.1 20.4 22.1
Vanderbilt 6-6 27.8 20.1 23.9
Florida St 6-6 27.2 19.1 24.3
North Carolina St 6-6 27.7 18.5 25.5
Louisiana-Monroe 6-6 27.3 18.2 25.4
Arkansas St 6-6 25.3 17.5 24.3
Arizona St 6-6 28.4 17.0 27.8
Wake Forest 6-6 25.3 16.5 25.2
Hawaii 6-7 25.2 23.8 17.6
UNLV 5-7 27.0 26.8 16.3
Arkansas 5-7 30.5 26.4 19.3
Western Michigan 5-7 27.2 25.2 18.2
Utah St 5-7 28.1 25.0 19.2
Minnesota 5-7 28.2 23.9 20.2
UCLA 5-7 29.3 23.3 21.5
Florida Int'l 5-7 26.0 23.2 19.2
Nevada 5-7 27.6 22.2 21.5
Marshall 5-7 27.6 22.0 21.7
Middle Tennessee St 5-7 25.5 21.4 20.5
Kansas St 5-7 29.6 20.8 24.9
UTEP 5-7 26.4 20.0 22.7
Florida Atlantic 5-7 26.5 18.9 24.0
San Jose St 5-7 28.6 18.3 26.3
Kent St 4-8 30.8 27.4 17.9
Iowa St 4-8 28.7 27.3 17.0
Louisiana Tech 4-8 32.0 27.1 19.6
Ohio U. 4-8 28.4 26.9 17.4
Central Florida 4-8 28.8 25.8 18.4
Ball St 4-8 26.6 25.8 16.8
Wyoming 4-8 30.0 25.1 20.3
Maryland 4-8 25.3 24.5 16.9
Memphis 4-8 27.5 24.4 19.1
Idaho 4-8 27.2 23.9 19.3
Duke 4-8 28.1 23.8 20.3
Rice 4-8 29.0 23.5 21.1
Illinois 4-8 30.1 21.3 24.7
Virginia 3-9 29.2 23.5 21.4
Toledo 3-9 29.3 23.3 21.7
San Diego St 3-9 32.0 22.9 23.9
Syracuse 3-9 34.1 22.8 25.1
Mississippi St 3-9 32.0 22.6 24.8
SMU 3-9 34.7 22.5 26.0
Colorado 3-9 30.4 21.5 24.5
New Mexico 3-9 30.7 20.2 26.4
Tulane 3-9 30.2 18.3 28.5
Indiana 3-9 31.8 18.2 30.2
Louisville 2-10 38.8 28.6 20.2
Washington 2-10 42.8 19.3 27.9
Eastern Michigan 2-10 31.8 17.0 31.7
New Mexico St 2-11 36.5 20.5 30.1
Washington St 1-11 33.3 33.0 12.0
Western Kentucky 1-11 33.9 29.2 17.1
Miami OH 1-11 44.8 16.8 35.2