Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Florida remains projected to finish undefeated but Boise State is now more likely to finish with 1 loss than 0. This is due to future opponents Fresno State, Bowling Green, and Tulsa improving their ratings this week increase the chance one might pull of the upset. They do still have a 33.8% chance of finishing undefeated though so do not be surprised if it happens.
There are 6 other teams projected to have 1 loss that have a good shot at not losing at all, and even Texas and Pitt have a better than 10% chance of doing so.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Florida | 12-0 | 58.4 | 0.0 | 33.3 |
| Boise St | 12-1 | 42.8 | 33.8 | 19.1 |
| Houston | 11-1 | 43.3 | 30.9 | 20.9 |
| Alabama | 11-1 | 43.1 | 29.8 | 21.4 |
| Penn State | 11-1 | 40.7 | 29.2 | 22.6 |
| Southern Cal | 11-1 | 40.2 | 22.1 | 26.7 |
| Cincinnati | 11-1 | 36.8 | 13.6 | 33.5 |
| TCU | 11-1 | 34.3 | 12.6 | 33.8 |
| Texas | 10-2 | 32.4 | 31.4 | 17.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-2 | 31.9 | 30.1 | 18.3 |
| Brigham Young | 10-2 | 32.3 | 27.6 | 20.4 |
| California | 10-2 | 32.5 | 25.9 | 21.9 |
| Mississippi | 10-2 | 33.2 | 22.3 | 25.1 |
| Utah | 10-2 | 36.7 | 19.9 | 28.6 |
| Navy | 10-3 | 38.5 | 22.3 | 25.8 |
| Bowling Green | 9-3 | 36.2 | 30.1 | 20.0 |
| Ohio State | 9-3 | 35.6 | 29.2 | 20.3 |
| Missouri | 9-3 | 30.2 | 25.9 | 20.1 |
| Tulsa | 9-3 | 32.9 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| North Carolina | 9-3 | 29.9 | 21.3 | 24.2 |
| Nebraska | 9-3 | 30.1 | 20.8 | 25.0 |
| Iowa | 9-3 | 30.8 | 20.1 | 25.7 |
| Georgia Tech | 9-3 | 25.7 | 16.6 | 25.1 |
| LSU | 8-4 | 35.5 | 28.0 | 19.7 |
| Kansas | 8-4 | 30.4 | 27.4 | 18.4 |
| West Virginia | 8-4 | 32.0 | 26.3 | 20.4 |
| Boston College | 8-4 | 27.3 | 26.1 | 17.7 |
| Virginia Tech | 8-4 | 28.2 | 25.1 | 19.6 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 32.2 | 24.3 | 22.6 |
| Oklahoma | 8-4 | 29.2 | 24.1 | 21.2 |
| South Florida | 8-4 | 29.2 | 23.1 | 22.0 |
| Auburn | 8-4 | 29.3 | 22.5 | 22.7 |
| Arizona | 8-4 | 29.8 | 21.8 | 23.5 |
| Texas Tech | 8-4 | 29.2 | 21.8 | 23.2 |
| Clemson | 8-4 | 29.0 | 21.8 | 23.1 |
| Miami FL | 8-4 | 28.3 | 21.7 | 22.6 |
| Buffalo | 8-4 | 28.8 | 20.6 | 24.0 |
| Purdue | 8-4 | 28.2 | 19.7 | 24.4 |
| Oklahoma St | 8-4 | 31.2 | 19.4 | 26.9 |
| Wisconsin | 8-4 | 26.8 | 18.8 | 24.2 |
| Central Michigan | 8-4 | 32.9 | 18.2 | 28.2 |
| Michigan | 8-4 | 29.2 | 16.7 | 28.6 |
| Fresno St | 8-4 | 31.5 | 15.7 | 29.7 |
| Southern Miss | 7-5 | 28.8 | 27.0 | 17.9 |
| Oregon St | 7-5 | 29.5 | 25.0 | 20.1 |
| Georgia | 7-5 | 29.1 | 24.4 | 20.8 |
| Oregon | 7-5 | 28.4 | 22.7 | 21.8 |
| Kentucky | 7-5 | 33.4 | 22.5 | 24.8 |
| Baylor | 7-5 | 28.9 | 22.5 | 22.3 |
| South Carolina | 7-5 | 30.9 | 21.8 | 24.4 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7-5 | 28.6 | 21.4 | 23.1 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 7-5 | 26.9 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| UCLA | 7-5 | 29.0 | 19.8 | 25.0 |
| Colorado St | 7-5 | 29.3 | 18.2 | 26.5 |
| Notre Dame | 7-5 | 28.3 | 16.3 | 27.9 |
| Texas A&M | 7-5 | 29.1 | 15.8 | 28.9 |
| Hawaii | 7-6 | 26.8 | 22.9 | 20.2 |
| Connecticut | 6-6 | 31.2 | 28.2 | 17.7 |
| Minnesota | 6-6 | 28.3 | 27.0 | 17.3 |
| Akron | 6-6 | 30.9 | 24.7 | 21.1 |
| Rutgers | 6-6 | 28.9 | 22.2 | 22.6 |
| Wake Forest | 6-6 | 28.4 | 21.9 | 22.4 |
| Troy | 6-6 | 27.1 | 21.2 | 22.1 |
| East Carolina | 6-6 | 28.5 | 20.9 | 23.5 |
| Temple | 6-6 | 29.5 | 20.4 | 24.7 |
| Arkansas St | 6-6 | 26.6 | 20.3 | 22.6 |
| Florida Int'l | 6-6 | 26.2 | 19.7 | 22.7 |
| Air Force | 6-6 | 32.5 | 18.9 | 27.5 |
| Arkansas | 6-6 | 30.4 | 18.9 | 27.1 |
| SMU | 6-6 | 31.1 | 18.7 | 27.5 |
| UNLV | 6-6 | 28.5 | 18.6 | 25.7 |
| Arizona St | 6-6 | 28.4 | 18.3 | 26.4 |
| Toledo | 6-6 | 28.6 | 17.5 | 26.9 |
| Northwestern | 6-6 | 29.8 | 17.2 | 29.0 |
| Army | 5-7 | 29.7 | 26.8 | 18.3 |
| Michigan St | 5-7 | 27.5 | 26.7 | 16.6 |
| Ohio U. | 5-7 | 30.1 | 25.9 | 19.7 |
| Stanford | 5-7 | 28.1 | 25.7 | 18.3 |
| Utah St | 5-7 | 28.6 | 24.9 | 19.6 |
| Maryland | 5-7 | 26.3 | 24.4 | 18.0 |
| San Jose St | 5-7 | 30.3 | 23.9 | 22.0 |
| Vanderbilt | 5-7 | 30.6 | 23.3 | 22.5 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 5-7 | 27.1 | 23.2 | 20.2 |
| Duke | 5-7 | 29.1 | 23.1 | 22.0 |
| Tennessee | 5-7 | 32.8 | 21.9 | 25.5 |
| Central Florida | 5-7 | 30.3 | 21.9 | 23.9 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 5-7 | 28.0 | 21.9 | 22.3 |
| North Texas | 5-7 | 28.0 | 21.7 | 22.4 |
| North Carolina St | 5-7 | 29.2 | 21.0 | 24.2 |
| Wyoming | 5-7 | 28.5 | 20.8 | 23.7 |
| Marshall | 5-7 | 26.8 | 20.8 | 22.3 |
| Florida St | 5-7 | 27.8 | 19.0 | 25.2 |
| Kansas St | 5-7 | 32.2 | 18.5 | 29.0 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5-7 | 25.5 | 17.5 | 24.4 |
| Nevada | 5-7 | 26.3 | 16.9 | 25.9 |
| Kent St | 5-7 | 28.5 | 16.7 | 28.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-8 | 30.9 | 29.9 | 16.1 |
| Western Michigan | 4-8 | 28.6 | 27.4 | 16.8 |
| San Diego St | 4-8 | 30.7 | 27.0 | 18.6 |
| UTEP | 4-8 | 28.2 | 24.0 | 20.3 |
| Syracuse | 4-8 | 32.8 | 22.0 | 25.1 |
| Indiana | 4-8 | 31.5 | 17.5 | 31.0 |
| Iowa St | 4-8 | 31.8 | 16.0 | 31.2 |
| Illinois | 3-9 | 30.2 | 29.0 | 16.1 |
| Memphis | 3-9 | 32.3 | 23.3 | 23.9 |
| Idaho | 3-9 | 31.7 | 22.2 | 25.1 |
| Rice | 3-9 | 30.6 | 20.6 | 25.7 |
| Virginia | 3-9 | 29.5 | 18.9 | 27.0 |
| Washington | 3-9 | 36.7 | 18.0 | 34.3 |
| New Mexico | 2-10 | 31.4 | 29.9 | 15.4 |
| Ball St | 2-10 | 28.3 | 27.7 | 16.0 |
| Tulane | 2-10 | 29.5 | 27.5 | 17.3 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-10 | 33.6 | 22.8 | 25.3 |
| Mississippi St | 2-10 | 40.1 | 19.9 | 33.6 |
| Louisville | 2-10 | 41.6 | 19.8 | 33.4 |
| New Mexico St | 2-11 | 40.0 | 18.1 | 36.7 |
| Western Kentucky | 1-11 | 33.8 | 29.2 | 17.1 |
| Colorado | 1-11 | 39.2 | 27.4 | 21.6 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 41.5 | 19.4 | 33.8 |
| Miami OH | 0-12 | 43.3 | 38.9 | 0.0 |
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