Wednesday, September 30, 2009

2009 Week 4 NFL Predictions

Here are my computer's predictions for week 4 of the NFL season.  These are also posted here each week for easier reference.

After 2 weeks the computer is doing quite well going 30-17-1 against the spread and 32-16 straight up beating Vegas' 31-16 straight up.

The computer is picking 3 upsets this week, Jacksonville over Tennessee, Baltimore over New England, and Denver over Dallas.  Last week the 1 upset missed due in part to Seattle's injuries that the computer cannot take into account.  But all 3 upsets are based on the results this year while the Vegas line is based more on expectations that Tennessee is not an 0-3 team, New England is still New England, and Denver's 3-0 is a bit of a fraud.  This is what makes it interesting!

Favorite
Margin
Underdog
Favorite
Margin
Underdog
Denver
6.3
Dallas
Houston
3.9
Oakland
Jacksonville
2.5
Tennessee
Minnesota
10.2
Green Bay
San Francisco
21.2
St Louis
Pittsburgh
2.3
San Diego
New Orleans
9.3
NY Jets
Buffalo
3.2
Miami
NY Giants
10.9
Kansas City
Baltimore
0.8
New England
Washington
6.1
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati
6.2
Cleveland
Chicago
9.2
Detroit
Indianapolis
10.4
Seattle

Updated Noon PDT 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in picks.