Sunday, September 20, 2009

2009 Week 3 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results

Ratings through week 3 (games played thru 19-Sep).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With week 3 came some upsets, closer games than expected, and just plain more data for the computer and that results in a bunch of change as the computer also just about eliminates the effect of the pre-season ratings.

The new #1 is Alabama after a convincing win and they were also helped by Virginia Tech's win over Nebraska.  But they didn't so much jump to #1 as they benefited from previous top teams falling.  The biggest of those being a heavily favored USC losing at Washington and dropping all the way to #13.  And while Florida didn't lose, they too were heavily favored and won unimpressively dropping them to #4.  Texas also loses some ratings points but stays at #3.

Those moving up include Boise State after the free for all with Fresno State but also benefits from previous opponent Oregon beating Utah.  Cincinnati's win at Oregon State boosts them to #6 but Miami is the big mover jumping all the way to #7.  They benefited from prior opponent Florida State winning big at BYU as well which also helped jump them to #14.

The predictions did not have a good week going 23-39-1 against the spread but a much better 48-15 picking winners for the week so not all bad.  The Vegas line went 49-14 straight up for comparison.  A poor showing against the spread is not uncommon in the first 3 weeks of the season as the system begins to get enough games to work with so that one is out of the way now.

Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
Rank Team Rating Record Schedule Change
1 Alabama 88.262 3-0 68.559 +3, +0.840
2 Boise St 87.975 3-0 66.646 +6, +2.244
3 Texas 87.250 3-0 66.148 +0, -2.009
4 Florida 86.897 3-0 58.939 -3, -5.918
5 California 86.568 3-0 67.579 +0, +0.019
6 Cincinnati 86.000 3-0 64.380 +5, +1.800
7 Miami FL 85.660 2-0 81.165 +19, +6.256
8 Houston 85.403 2-0 63.088 -1, -0.715
9 Oklahoma 85.209 2-1 63.494 -3, -1.183
10 Kansas 84.235 3-0 62.075 +11, +3.586
11 Pittsburgh 84.121 3-0 66.104 +2, +1.306
12 TCU 83.527 2-0 63.004 -2, -1.240
13 Southern Cal 83.501 2-1 72.848 -11, -7.381
14 Florida St 83.429 2-1 75.078 +31, +8.261
15 Nebraska 83.038 2-1 68.466 +0, +0.490
16 Penn State 82.736 3-0 59.795 -7, -2.467
17 Mississippi 82.687 2-0 59.284 +0, +0.320
18 Clemson 82.351 2-1 72.529 +4, +2.169
19 Auburn 82.239 3-0 67.808 +16, +4.622
20 Iowa 82.090 3-0 73.098 +7, +2.916
21 Virginia Tech 81.590 2-1 77.653 +2, +1.475
22 North Carolina 81.368 3-0 67.420 +2, +1.781
23 Missouri 81.195 3-0 63.781 -4, -0.957
24 Texas Tech 81.062 2-1 66.569 -10, -1.664
25 Ohio State 80.868 2-1 73.095 -13, -2.234
26 LSU 80.812 3-0 66.525 +4, +2.149
27 Oklahoma St 80.005 2-1 71.329 -7, -1.149
28 Oregon 79.620 2-1 78.752 +0, +0.457
29 Connecticut 79.467 2-1 76.272 +17, +4.509
30 Georgia Tech 78.900 2-1 77.071 -1, -0.123
31 Utah 78.393 2-1 69.553 -13, -3.863
32 Georgia 78.384 2-1 76.884 +5, +1.026
33 South Carolina 78.132 2-1 72.096 +3, +0.709
34 Arizona 77.524 2-1 69.481 -9, -1.984
35 Navy 76.811 1-2 77.661 -1, -1.144
36 Wisconsin 76.463 3-0 66.693 +14, +3.089
37 Brigham Young 76.372 2-1 74.226 -21, -6.024
38 West Virginia 75.913 2-1 69.403 +2, -0.470
39 UCLA 75.662 3-0 65.547 +9, +2.000
40 South Florida 75.151 3-0 51.512 -2, -1.764
41 Notre Dame 75.137 2-1 69.040 +1, -0.614
42 Michigan 74.993 3-0 62.277 +7, +1.521
43 Northern Illinois 74.824 2-1 68.787 +22, +4.886
44 Wake Forest 74.711 2-1 65.427 -1, -0.765
45 Oregon St 74.674 2-1 68.124 -6, -2.139
46 Baylor 74.566 1-1 77.089 -13, -3.390
47 Arizona St 74.495 2-0 50.618 +8, +2.265
48 Stanford 74.416 2-1 65.635 +5, +1.997
49 Fresno St 73.391 1-2 72.281 +5, +1.133
50 Tennessee 73.203 1-2 70.166 +12, +2.291
51 Washington 72.925 2-1 72.514 +36, +7.576
52 Purdue 72.887 1-2 72.139 -11, -3.283
53 Tulsa 72.568 2-1 67.752 -21, -5.699
54 Michigan St 72.422 1-2 65.008 +6, +0.920
55 Boston College 72.266 2-1 59.695 -24, -6.359
56 North Carolina St 72.237 2-1 53.944 +0, +0.062
57 Minnesota 72.146 2-1 73.453 +0, +0.159
58 Bowling Green 71.830 1-2 72.912 -14, -3.606
59 Mississippi St 71.519 2-1 63.588 +38, +8.742
60 Air Force 71.348 2-1 58.578 +4, +0.951
61 Central Michigan 71.232 2-1 64.620 +0, +0.146
62 Kentucky 70.568 2-0 57.421 -15, -3.327
63 Duke 70.564 1-2 75.040 -5, -1.406
64 Rutgers 70.229 2-1 58.529 +4, +1.324
65 Colorado St 70.212 3-0 63.160 +6, +2.203
66 Ohio U. 69.882 2-1 68.161 +24, +5.333
67 Texas A&M 69.710 2-0 56.649 -16, -3.452
68 Hawaii 69.624 2-1 63.657 +4, +2.203
69 Arkansas 69.515 1-1 63.640 -17, -3.432
70 Middle Tennessee St 69.420 2-1 71.695 +9, +3.071
71 Maryland 68.656 1-2 74.010 -12, -2.914
72 Southern Miss 68.629 3-0 54.601 -5, -0.289
73 UNLV 68.197 2-1 62.217 -7, -1.380
74 Louisville 67.917 1-1 45.659 +42,+13.510
75 Marshall 67.660 2-1 71.478 +28, +5.385
76 Buffalo 67.531 1-2 72.208 -7, -1.185
77 Iowa St 67.068 2-1 62.537 +16, +3.323
78 East Carolina 67.059 1-2 73.848 -4, +0.112
79 Illinois 66.976 1-1 63.935 +7, +1.483
80 Kansas St 66.899 1-2 70.066 -10, -1.175
81 Troy 66.880 1-2 74.724 -6, -0.053
82 Virginia 66.337 0-3 73.512 -9, -1.024
83 Northwestern 65.765 2-1 55.329 -3, -0.519
84 Central Florida 65.553 2-1 64.534 +10, +1.828
85 Temple 65.494 0-2 76.136 -4, -0.571
86 Syracuse 65.442 1-2 72.549 -1, -0.157
87 Florida Int'l 65.290 0-2 82.246 -5, -0.771
88 Vanderbilt 65.187 1-2 63.971 -25, -5.392
89 Indiana 65.033 3-0 57.598 +20, +4.369
90 Louisiana Tech 64.992 1-2 69.209 +2, +0.928
91 Toledo 64.974 1-2 72.770 -3, -0.125
92 North Texas 64.798 1-2 73.666 +14, +3.558
93 Colorado 64.553 1-2 64.291 +15, +3.685
94 Louisiana-Lafayette 64.463 2-1 63.405 -11, -1.583
95 Utah St 64.289 0-2 77.051 -11, -1.633
96 Western Michigan 64.241 1-2 64.317 +6, +1.937
97 Arkansas St 64.143 1-1 51.606 -2, +0.497
98 UTEP 63.950 1-2 65.865 +2, +1.293
99 Army 62.829 2-1 61.290 -3, -0.264
100 Nevada 62.705 0-2 75.675 -9, -1.548
101 Florida Atlantic 62.666 0-2 83.585 -2, -0.036
102 Alabama-Birmingham 62.445 1-2 61.570 -13, -2.370
103 Idaho 62.229 2-1 61.432 +12, +5.859
104 San Jose St 61.749 0-3 79.770 -28, -5.159
105 SMU 61.632 2-1 60.714 -4, -0.829
106 Memphis 61.078 1-2 65.023 +6, +1.946
107 Wyoming 60.687 1-2 71.342 -30, -6.199
108 Ball St 59.852 0-3 63.681 +2, -0.453
109 Louisiana-Monroe 59.693 1-2 66.346 -11, -3.052
110 San Diego St 59.540 1-2 65.172 -6, -2.379
111 Rice 59.200 0-3 77.504 -4, -1.752
112 Akron 57.448 1-2 61.676 -34, -9.227
113 Washington St 57.444 1-2 66.557 +5, +3.427
114 Eastern Michigan 56.454 0-3 68.862 +0, -0.646
115 Kent St 55.875 1-2 60.990 -10, -5.655
116 New Mexico 55.009 0-3 70.209 -5, -4.994
117 Tulane 54.039 0-2 71.470 -4, -3.319
118 Western Kentucky 50.938 0-3 70.228 +1, -2.267
119 Miami OH 49.926 0-3 76.261 -2, -4.434
120 New Mexico St 48.830 1-2 54.810 +0, -0.478