Sunday, September 27, 2009

2009 Week 4 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results

Ratings through week 4 (games played thru 26-Sep).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Week 4 continued the theme of some upsets, an analysis of those upsets here, but with more data the computer is beginning to give a clearer picture of how each team should be rated and how they compare, so this is when it gets interesting.

Alabama remains #1 with Boise State close behind at #2.  Both teams had convincing wins, Boise State on the road, and that boosted their ratings over 5 points each.  Boise State was also buoyed by prior opponent Oregon winning convincingly over prior undefeated Cal.  There was a bunch of changed behind them though with new #3 thru #5 that each made big moves this week to get there.

South Florida moves to #3, and my gut says that is too high, but even though they've played 4 games, only one has been meaningful, and my computer aims to not overly penalize teams for have a few weak opponents by giving more weight to the meaningful games, so South Florida's rating is based for the most part on their win over Florida State.

Virginia Tech moves to #4 but for a different reason.  Their only loss was to #1 Alabama and they have a quality win over now #7 Nebraska and a walloping of former undefeated and now #13 Miami this week.

And Iowa moves to #5 after their big win over Penn State at Happy Valley, and they have another quality win over 1-loss Arizona.  While they have a narrow win over Northern Iowa, that is Northern Iowa's only loss and they've had huge wins over their other opponents so perhaps that narrow win wasn't so bad.

With 17 undefeated teams still, including traditional and recent powers Florida, Texas, and LSU, there is still a lot to be determined and many teams still have a shot at moving to the top of the ratings.  Check out the season projections which will be updated shortly to see who might stay undefeated.

As usually happens in week 4, the computer started doing better on predictions going 32-26-1 against the spread, and 9-4 on the best picks.  The best picks are now a very good 18-9-1 for the year.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
88.262
3-0
68.559
+3, +0.840
2
Boise St
87.975
3-0
66.646
+6, +2.244
3
Texas
87.250
3-0
66.148
+0, -2.009
4
Florida
86.897
3-0
58.939
-3, -5.918
5
California
86.568
3-0
67.579
+0, +0.019
6
Cincinnati
86.000
3-0
64.380
+5, +1.800
7
Miami FL
85.660
2-0
81.165
+19, +6.256
8
Houston
85.403
2-0
63.088
-1, -0.715
9
Oklahoma
85.209
2-1
63.494
-3, -1.183
10
Kansas
84.235
3-0
62.075
+11, +3.586
11
Pittsburgh
84.121
3-0
66.104
+2, +1.306
12
TCU
83.527
2-0
63.004
-2, -1.240
13
Southern Cal
83.501
2-1
72.848
-11, -7.381
14
Florida St
83.429
2-1
75.078
+31, +8.261
15
Nebraska
83.038
2-1
68.466
+0, +0.490
16
Penn State
82.736
3-0
59.795
-7, -2.467
17
Mississippi
82.687
2-0
59.284
+0, +0.320
18
Clemson
82.351
2-1
72.529
+4, +2.169
19
Auburn
82.239
3-0
67.808
+16, +4.622
20
Iowa
82.090
3-0
73.098
+7, +2.916
21
Virginia Tech
81.590
2-1
77.653
+2, +1.475
22
North Carolina
81.368
3-0
67.420
+2, +1.781
23
Missouri
81.195
3-0
63.781
-4, -0.957
24
Texas Tech
81.062
2-1
66.569
-10, -1.664
25
Ohio State
80.868
2-1
73.095
-13, -2.234
26
LSU
80.812
3-0
66.525
+4, +2.149
27
Oklahoma St
80.005
2-1
71.329
-7, -1.149
28
Oregon
79.620
2-1
78.752
+0, +0.457
29
Connecticut
79.467
2-1
76.272
+17, +4.509
30
Georgia Tech
78.900
2-1
77.071
-1, -0.123
31
Utah
78.393
2-1
69.553
-13, -3.863
32
Georgia
78.384
2-1
76.884
+5, +1.026
33
South Carolina
78.132
2-1
72.096
+3, +0.709
34
Arizona
77.524
2-1
69.481
-9, -1.984
35
Navy
76.811
1-2
77.661
-1, -1.144
36
Wisconsin
76.463
3-0
66.693
+14, +3.089
37
Brigham Young
76.372
2-1
74.226
-21, -6.024
38
West Virginia
75.913
2-1
69.403
+2, -0.470
39
UCLA
75.662
3-0
65.547
+9, +2.000
40
South Florida
75.151
3-0
51.512
-2, -1.764
41
Notre Dame
75.137
2-1
69.040
+1, -0.614
42
Michigan
74.993
3-0
62.277
+7, +1.521
43
Northern Illinois
74.824
2-1
68.787
+22, +4.886
44
Wake Forest
74.711
2-1
65.427
-1, -0.765
45
Oregon St
74.674
2-1
68.124
-6, -2.139
46
Baylor
74.566
1-1
77.089
-13, -3.390
47
Arizona St
74.495
2-0
50.618
+8, +2.265
48
Stanford
74.416
2-1
65.635
+5, +1.997
49
Fresno St
73.391
1-2
72.281
+5, +1.133
50
Tennessee
73.203
1-2
70.166
+12, +2.291
51
Washington
72.925
2-1
72.514
+36, +7.576
52
Purdue
72.887
1-2
72.139
-11, -3.283
53
Tulsa
72.568
2-1
67.752
-21, -5.699
54
Michigan St
72.422
1-2
65.008
+6, +0.920
55
Boston College
72.266
2-1
59.695
-24, -6.359
56
North Carolina St
72.237
2-1
53.944
+0, +0.062
57
Minnesota
72.146
2-1
73.453
+0, +0.159
58
Bowling Green
71.830
1-2
72.912
-14, -3.606
59
Mississippi St
71.519
2-1
63.588
+38, +8.742
60
Air Force
71.348
2-1
58.578
+4, +0.951
61
Central Michigan
71.232
2-1
64.620
+0, +0.146
62
Kentucky
70.568
2-0
57.421
-15, -3.327
63
Duke
70.564
1-2
75.040
-5, -1.406
64
Rutgers
70.229
2-1
58.529
+4, +1.324
65
Colorado St
70.212
3-0
63.160
+6, +2.203
66
Ohio U.
69.882
2-1
68.161
+24, +5.333
67
Texas A&M
69.710
2-0
56.649
-16, -3.452
68
Hawaii
69.624
2-1
63.657
+4, +2.203
69
Arkansas
69.515
1-1
63.640
-17, -3.432
70
Middle Tennessee St
69.420
2-1
71.695
+9, +3.071
71
Maryland
68.656
1-2
74.010
-12, -2.914
72
Southern Miss
68.629
3-0
54.601
-5, -0.289
73
UNLV
68.197
2-1
62.217
-7, -1.380
74
Louisville
67.917
1-1
45.659
+42,+13.510
75
Marshall
67.660
2-1
71.478
+28, +5.385
76
Buffalo
67.531
1-2
72.208
-7, -1.185
77
Iowa St
67.068
2-1
62.537
+16, +3.323
78
East Carolina
67.059
1-2
73.848
-4, +0.112
79
Illinois
66.976
1-1
63.935
+7, +1.483
80
Kansas St
66.899
1-2
70.066
-10, -1.175
81
Troy
66.880
1-2
74.724
-6, -0.053
82
Virginia
66.337
0-3
73.512
-9, -1.024
83
Northwestern
65.765
2-1
55.329
-3, -0.519
84
Central Florida
65.553
2-1
64.534
+10, +1.828
85
Temple
65.494
0-2
76.136
-4, -0.571
86
Syracuse
65.442
1-2
72.549
-1, -0.157
87
Florida Int'l
65.290
0-2
82.246
-5, -0.771
88
Vanderbilt
65.187
1-2
63.971
-25, -5.392
89
Indiana
65.033
3-0
57.598
+20, +4.369
90
Louisiana Tech
64.992
1-2
69.209
+2, +0.928
91
Toledo
64.974
1-2
72.770
-3, -0.125
92
North Texas
64.798
1-2
73.666
+14, +3.558
93
Colorado
64.553
1-2
64.291
+15, +3.685
94
Louisiana-Lafayette
64.463
2-1
63.405
-11, -1.583
95
Utah St
64.289
0-2
77.051
-11, -1.633
96
Western Michigan
64.241
1-2
64.317
+6, +1.937
97
Arkansas St
64.143
1-1
51.606
-2, +0.497
98
UTEP
63.950
1-2
65.865
+2, +1.293
99
Army
62.829
2-1
61.290
-3, -0.264
100
Nevada
62.705
0-2
75.675
-9, -1.548
101
Florida Atlantic
62.666
0-2
83.585
-2, -0.036
102
Alabama-Birmingham
62.445
1-2
61.570
-13, -2.370
103
Idaho
62.229
2-1
61.432
+12, +5.859
104
San Jose St
61.749
0-3
79.770
-28, -5.159
105
SMU
61.632
2-1
60.714
-4, -0.829
106
Memphis
61.078
1-2
65.023
+6, +1.946
107
Wyoming
60.687
1-2
71.342
-30, -6.199
108
Ball St
59.852
0-3
63.681
+2, -0.453
109
Louisiana-Monroe
59.693
1-2
66.346
-11, -3.052
110
San Diego St
59.540
1-2
65.172
-6, -2.379
111
Rice
59.200
0-3
77.504
-4, -1.752
112
Akron
57.448
1-2
61.676
-34, -9.227
113
Washington St
57.444
1-2
66.557
+5, +3.427
114
Eastern Michigan
56.454
0-3
68.862
+0, -0.646
115
Kent St
55.875
1-2
60.990
-10, -5.655
116
New Mexico
55.009
0-3
70.209
-5, -4.994
117
Tulane
54.039
0-2
71.470
-4, -3.319
118
Western Kentucky
50.938
0-3
70.228
+1, -2.267
119
Miami OH
49.926
0-3
76.261
-2, -4.434
120
New Mexico St
48.830
1-2
54.810
+0, -0.478