2009 Week 4 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results

Ratings through week 4 (games played thru 26-Sep).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Week 4 continued the theme of some upsets, an analysis of those upsets here, but with more data the computer is beginning to give a clearer picture of how each team should be rated and how they compare, so this is when it gets interesting.

Alabama remains #1 with Boise State close behind at #2.  Both teams had convincing wins, Boise State on the road, and that boosted their ratings over 5 points each.  Boise State was also buoyed by prior opponent Oregon winning convincingly over prior undefeated Cal.  There was a bunch of changed behind them though with new #3 thru #5 that each made big moves this week to get there.

South Florida moves to #3, and my gut says that is too high, but even though they've played 4 games, only one has been meaningful, and my computer aims to not overly penalize teams for have a few weak opponents by giving more weight to the meaningful games, so South Florida's rating is based for the most part on their win over Florida State.

Virginia Tech moves to #4 but for a different reason.  Their only loss was to #1 Alabama and they have a quality win over now #7 Nebraska and a walloping of former undefeated and now #13 Miami this week.

And Iowa moves to #5 after their big win over Penn State at Happy Valley, and they have another quality win over 1-loss Arizona.  While they have a narrow win over Northern Iowa, that is Northern Iowa's only loss and they've had huge wins over their other opponents so perhaps that narrow win wasn't so bad.

With 17 undefeated teams still, including traditional and recent powers Florida, Texas, and LSU, there is still a lot to be determined and many teams still have a shot at moving to the top of the ratings.  Check out the season projections which will be updated shortly to see who might stay undefeated.

As usually happens in week 4, the computer started doing better on predictions going 32-26-1 against the spread, and 9-4 on the best picks.  The best picks are now a very good 18-9-1 for the year.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	88.262	3-0	68.559	+3, +0.840
2	Boise St	87.975	3-0	66.646	+6, +2.244
3	Texas	87.250	3-0	66.148	+0, -2.009
4	Florida	86.897	3-0	58.939	-3, -5.918
5	California	86.568	3-0	67.579	+0, +0.019
6	Cincinnati	86.000	3-0	64.380	+5, +1.800
7	Miami FL	85.660	2-0	81.165	+19, +6.256
8	Houston	85.403	2-0	63.088	-1, -0.715
9	Oklahoma	85.209	2-1	63.494	-3, -1.183
10	Kansas	84.235	3-0	62.075	+11, +3.586
11	Pittsburgh	84.121	3-0	66.104	+2, +1.306
12	TCU	83.527	2-0	63.004	-2, -1.240
13	Southern Cal	83.501	2-1	72.848	-11, -7.381
14	Florida St	83.429	2-1	75.078	+31, +8.261
15	Nebraska	83.038	2-1	68.466	+0, +0.490
16	Penn State	82.736	3-0	59.795	-7, -2.467
17	Mississippi	82.687	2-0	59.284	+0, +0.320
18	Clemson	82.351	2-1	72.529	+4, +2.169
19	Auburn	82.239	3-0	67.808	+16, +4.622
20	Iowa	82.090	3-0	73.098	+7, +2.916
21	Virginia Tech	81.590	2-1	77.653	+2, +1.475
22	North Carolina	81.368	3-0	67.420	+2, +1.781
23	Missouri	81.195	3-0	63.781	-4, -0.957
24	Texas Tech	81.062	2-1	66.569	-10, -1.664
25	Ohio State	80.868	2-1	73.095	-13, -2.234
26	LSU	80.812	3-0	66.525	+4, +2.149
27	Oklahoma St	80.005	2-1	71.329	-7, -1.149
28	Oregon	79.620	2-1	78.752	+0, +0.457
29	Connecticut	79.467	2-1	76.272	+17, +4.509
30	Georgia Tech	78.900	2-1	77.071	-1, -0.123
31	Utah	78.393	2-1	69.553	-13, -3.863
32	Georgia	78.384	2-1	76.884	+5, +1.026
33	South Carolina	78.132	2-1	72.096	+3, +0.709
34	Arizona	77.524	2-1	69.481	-9, -1.984
35	Navy	76.811	1-2	77.661	-1, -1.144
36	Wisconsin	76.463	3-0	66.693	+14, +3.089
37	Brigham Young	76.372	2-1	74.226	-21, -6.024
38	West Virginia	75.913	2-1	69.403	+2, -0.470
39	UCLA	75.662	3-0	65.547	+9, +2.000
40	South Florida	75.151	3-0	51.512	-2, -1.764
41	Notre Dame	75.137	2-1	69.040	+1, -0.614
42	Michigan	74.993	3-0	62.277	+7, +1.521
43	Northern Illinois	74.824	2-1	68.787	+22, +4.886
44	Wake Forest	74.711	2-1	65.427	-1, -0.765
45	Oregon St	74.674	2-1	68.124	-6, -2.139
46	Baylor	74.566	1-1	77.089	-13, -3.390
47	Arizona St	74.495	2-0	50.618	+8, +2.265
48	Stanford	74.416	2-1	65.635	+5, +1.997
49	Fresno St	73.391	1-2	72.281	+5, +1.133
50	Tennessee	73.203	1-2	70.166	+12, +2.291
51	Washington	72.925	2-1	72.514	+36, +7.576
52	Purdue	72.887	1-2	72.139	-11, -3.283
53	Tulsa	72.568	2-1	67.752	-21, -5.699
54	Michigan St	72.422	1-2	65.008	+6, +0.920
55	Boston College	72.266	2-1	59.695	-24, -6.359
56	North Carolina St	72.237	2-1	53.944	+0, +0.062
57	Minnesota	72.146	2-1	73.453	+0, +0.159
58	Bowling Green	71.830	1-2	72.912	-14, -3.606
59	Mississippi St	71.519	2-1	63.588	+38, +8.742
60	Air Force	71.348	2-1	58.578	+4, +0.951
61	Central Michigan	71.232	2-1	64.620	+0, +0.146
62	Kentucky	70.568	2-0	57.421	-15, -3.327
63	Duke	70.564	1-2	75.040	-5, -1.406
64	Rutgers	70.229	2-1	58.529	+4, +1.324
65	Colorado St	70.212	3-0	63.160	+6, +2.203
66	Ohio U.	69.882	2-1	68.161	+24, +5.333
67	Texas A&M	69.710	2-0	56.649	-16, -3.452
68	Hawaii	69.624	2-1	63.657	+4, +2.203
69	Arkansas	69.515	1-1	63.640	-17, -3.432
70	Middle Tennessee St	69.420	2-1	71.695	+9, +3.071
71	Maryland	68.656	1-2	74.010	-12, -2.914
72	Southern Miss	68.629	3-0	54.601	-5, -0.289
73	UNLV	68.197	2-1	62.217	-7, -1.380
74	Louisville	67.917	1-1	45.659	+42,+13.510
75	Marshall	67.660	2-1	71.478	+28, +5.385
76	Buffalo	67.531	1-2	72.208	-7, -1.185
77	Iowa St	67.068	2-1	62.537	+16, +3.323
78	East Carolina	67.059	1-2	73.848	-4, +0.112
79	Illinois	66.976	1-1	63.935	+7, +1.483
80	Kansas St	66.899	1-2	70.066	-10, -1.175
81	Troy	66.880	1-2	74.724	-6, -0.053
82	Virginia	66.337	0-3	73.512	-9, -1.024
83	Northwestern	65.765	2-1	55.329	-3, -0.519
84	Central Florida	65.553	2-1	64.534	+10, +1.828
85	Temple	65.494	0-2	76.136	-4, -0.571
86	Syracuse	65.442	1-2	72.549	-1, -0.157
87	Florida Int'l	65.290	0-2	82.246	-5, -0.771
88	Vanderbilt	65.187	1-2	63.971	-25, -5.392
89	Indiana	65.033	3-0	57.598	+20, +4.369
90	Louisiana Tech	64.992	1-2	69.209	+2, +0.928
91	Toledo	64.974	1-2	72.770	-3, -0.125
92	North Texas	64.798	1-2	73.666	+14, +3.558
93	Colorado	64.553	1-2	64.291	+15, +3.685
94	Louisiana-Lafayette	64.463	2-1	63.405	-11, -1.583
95	Utah St	64.289	0-2	77.051	-11, -1.633
96	Western Michigan	64.241	1-2	64.317	+6, +1.937
97	Arkansas St	64.143	1-1	51.606	-2, +0.497
98	UTEP	63.950	1-2	65.865	+2, +1.293
99	Army	62.829	2-1	61.290	-3, -0.264
100	Nevada	62.705	0-2	75.675	-9, -1.548
101	Florida Atlantic	62.666	0-2	83.585	-2, -0.036
102	Alabama-Birmingham	62.445	1-2	61.570	-13, -2.370
103	Idaho	62.229	2-1	61.432	+12, +5.859
104	San Jose St	61.749	0-3	79.770	-28, -5.159
105	SMU	61.632	2-1	60.714	-4, -0.829
106	Memphis	61.078	1-2	65.023	+6, +1.946
107	Wyoming	60.687	1-2	71.342	-30, -6.199
108	Ball St	59.852	0-3	63.681	+2, -0.453
109	Louisiana-Monroe	59.693	1-2	66.346	-11, -3.052
110	San Diego St	59.540	1-2	65.172	-6, -2.379
111	Rice	59.200	0-3	77.504	-4, -1.752
112	Akron	57.448	1-2	61.676	-34, -9.227
113	Washington St	57.444	1-2	66.557	+5, +3.427
114	Eastern Michigan	56.454	0-3	68.862	+0, -0.646
115	Kent St	55.875	1-2	60.990	-10, -5.655
116	New Mexico	55.009	0-3	70.209	-5, -4.994
117	Tulane	54.039	0-2	71.470	-4, -3.319
118	Western Kentucky	50.938	0-3	70.228	+1, -2.267
119	Miami OH	49.926	0-3	76.261	-2, -4.434
120	New Mexico St	48.830	1-2	54.810	+0, -0.478