Monday, September 21, 2009

2009 Week 2 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 2 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

Even though they are ranked #1, Baltimore is projected to have the best record at 14-2.  This is because they presently have the 2nd easiest schedule in all of the NFL and 4th easiest the rest of the year.  It is nice to get Cleveland and Cincinnati twice and Detroit and Oakland once each.  The #1 team, New Orleans, is only projected to finish 12-4.  Their schedule on average isn't a whole lot harder, but they don't have the gimme's Baltimore does.  The big surprise is San Francisco projected to be 12-4 along with New England only 8-8.

If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners Baltimore, New York Jets, San Diego, and Indy with wildcards Pittsburgh and Denver.  The NFC would have New York Giants, Minnesota, San Francisco, and New Orleans along with wildcards being 2 of Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Baltimore14-231.922.324.4
NY Giants13-328.616.128.1
NY Jets13-328.024.919.6
Minnesota12-425.022.818.8
San Francisco12-424.217.922.4
New Orleans12-423.223.116.7
Pittsburgh11-525.118.922.3
San Diego10-628.419.125.1
Dallas10-627.225.218.3
Atlanta10-624.118.322.0
Indianapolis10-623.216.722.6
Denver10-622.517.720.8
Philadelphia10-621.916.720.9
Arizona9-724.521.918.9
Buffalo9-722.817.221.6
Tennessee8-824.918.822.3
Chicago8-823.718.921.0
New England8-823.222.017.2
Seattle8-822.018.619.3
Cincinnati7-928.817.027.6
Green Bay7-923.620.319.4
Houston7-922.721.417.3
Washington6-1028.921.223.7
Oakland5-1127.924.719.0
Jacksonville5-1125.622.818.9
Carolina5-1123.517.822.0
Miami4-1224.722.118.7
Tampa Bay3-1326.022.220.0
Cleveland3-1324.523.516.9
St Louis3-1324.522.518.0
Kansas City2-1433.621.626.8
Detroit2-1429.428.915.1