Tuesday, September 29, 2009

2009 Week 3 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 3 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans off their 3rd impressive win moves to the top spot on the projected record list at 15-1.  Note that a 14-2 record is nearly the most likely record at 38.8% versus the 39% for 15-1.  This may seem like a pretty gaudy record and it is, but it is based on their performance this year which has been stellar.

Minnesota and the Jets are close behind projected to be at 14-2 and Denver and San Francisco are at 13-3.  These teams will all have to keep up their surprising play to keep those projections up there.

If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners New York Jets, Denver, Baltimore, and Indianapolis with wildcards New England and then in a dog fight, one of San Diego, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The NFC would have New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the New York Giants as division winners with wildcards being Dallas and Philadelphia.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
15-1
39.0
38.8
17.1
Minnesota
14-2
28.1
17.1
26.4
NY Jets
14-2
32.9
14.1
32.0
Denver
13-3
27.4
18.4
24.8
San Francisco
13-3
28.9
15.9
28.0
Baltimore
12-4
24.3
24.1
16.8
NY Giants
12-4
30.8
22.7
23.0
Indianapolis
12-4
24.7
18.9
22.0
Dallas
10-6
28.4
20.1
24.0
New England
10-6
25.7
20.1
21.8
Philadelphia
10-6
23.6
19.7
20.1
San Diego
9-7
26.0
25.9
16.4
Cincinnati
9-7
30.8
23.5
22.3
Pittsburgh
9-7
25.8
20.0
22.0
Buffalo
9-7
25.7
19.0
22.8
Chicago
9-7
25.3
17.3
24.1
Arizona
8-8
24.4
22.4
18.3
Atlanta
8-8
25.8
19.1
22.9
Green Bay
8-8
23.8
17.0
23.1
Jacksonville
7-9
26.8
24.7
18.2
Seattle
7-9
23.7
18.2
21.7
Tennessee
6-10
25.6
17.8
24.2
Houston
5-11
28.1
23.9
19.9
Detroit
4-12
27.6
27.3
15.8
Oakland
4-12
30.9
26.3
19.2
Washington
4-12
30.5
26.1
19.0
Miami
4-12
26.4
17.8
25.2
Carolina
3-13
27.1
26.5
16.4
Cleveland
3-13
25.3
22.9
18.5
Tampa Bay
2-14
29.7
25.6
19.3
Kansas City
2-14
32.6
20.1
28.3
St Louis
2-14
30.4
18.2
29.5