2009 Week 4 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 4 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

In something of a surprise, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated goes from 2 last week to 6!  A number of teams on the fringe last week got by crucial games and has set them up well for the remainder of the season.

Boise State remains the team with the best shot at finishing with a perfect record, now at a staggering 92% after getting by Bowling Green.  With no team ranked above #61 the rest of the year it is hard to see them faltering.  But their schedule will also be the reason many lobby for them not getting credit for a no-loss season and getting into the BCS championship game.

Alabama also remains slated to finish undefeated at a very high 67.5% chance.  They do still have #15 Auburn, #21 LSU, #24 South Carolina, and #27 Ole Miss on their schedule.

The additions to the list include Iowa (62.5%), Houston (56.9%), TCU (56.4%), and South Florida (45%).  Iowa may be rated a tad high and still has to visit Ohio State, but their schedule isn't that difficult other than that.  Houston got by their big obstacle in Texas Tech.  TCU got by Clemson but still has BYU and Utah.  South Florida also may be rated a bit high but has big tests in Cincinnati and Miami both at home.

Two teams projected with 1 loss do have a shot at going undefeated, those being Florida (22%) and Cincinnati (12%).  Texas will be favored in all remaining games but is projected to have 2 losses given their schedule but does have a 10.7% chance of finishing unblemished.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Boise St	13-0	92.4	0.0	7.6
Alabama	12-0	67.5	0.0	28.4
Iowa	12-0	62.5	0.0	33.6
Houston	12-0	56.9	0.0	36.5
TCU	12-0	56.4	0.0	36.7
South Florida	12-0	45.0	0.0	39.8
Cincinnati	11-1	47.1	12.0	33.0
Virginia Tech	11-1	44.6	0.0	41.5
Florida	11-1	39.4	22.0	27.4
Penn State	10-2	39.2	17.5	31.4
Wisconsin	10-2	37.5	9.3	35.1
Texas	10-2	33.2	29.9	19.0
Utah	9-3	46.3	39.7	10.3
Brigham Young	9-3	37.1	26.2	22.6
LSU	9-3	36.7	20.5	28.9
Central Michigan	9-3	36.6	27.1	21.8
Georgia Tech	9-3	36.6	21.6	26.1
Marshall	9-3	35.9	24.7	24.1
Miami FL	9-3	34.8	17.5	30.4
Middle Tennessee St	9-3	34.0	27.5	21.2
Ohio State	9-3	34.0	17.7	29.6
Oregon	9-3	32.7	30.4	18.4
Auburn	9-3	32.6	31.5	16.6
Nebraska	9-3	32.3	32.3	16.7
Missouri	9-3	31.5	25.8	20.9
Bowling Green	8-4	43.3	28.2	22.6
Northern Illinois	8-4	40.0	32.3	17.8
South Carolina	8-4	38.5	30.7	19.2
Fresno St	8-4	37.8	21.0	27.7
Clemson	8-4	37.2	26.8	22.6
Ohio U.	8-4	36.6	17.1	31.0
Navy	9-4	35.8	19.9	28.2
Tulsa	8-4	35.6	24.7	23.5
Mississippi	8-4	34.6	25.7	22.5
Texas Tech	8-4	34.5	17.3	30.2
Rutgers	8-4	34.4	13.8	34.1
Michigan	8-4	33.3	20.2	27.7
North Carolina	8-4	33.3	16.1	32.6
Pittsburgh	8-4	32.6	21.7	25.4
Kansas	8-4	32.5	24.9	22.1
Arizona	8-4	32.2	25.4	21.8
Notre Dame	8-4	31.4	20.2	26.2
Southern Miss	8-4	31.0	15.3	30.7
Southern Cal	8-4	29.7	21.5	24.0
California	8-4	29.4	20.8	24.6
Oklahoma	8-4	29.0	20.7	24.2
Stanford	8-4	28.0	16.0	27.9
Colorado St	7-5	36.8	32.3	16.9
West Virginia	7-5	36.1	26.6	22.3
Connecticut	7-5	35.8	29.3	18.8
Toledo	7-5	35.4	23.5	24.6
Temple	7-5	35.3	32.0	16.0
North Carolina St	7-5	33.5	25.0	22.6
Florida St	7-5	32.6	23.7	23.5
UCLA	7-5	32.0	24.7	22.1
Georgia	7-5	31.4	31.3	15.0
Idaho	7-5	30.9	25.8	20.7
Arizona St	7-5	29.4	20.6	24.6
Boston College	7-5	29.4	18.1	27.1
Oklahoma St	7-5	29.3	24.1	21.1
Troy	7-5	29.0	19.5	25.4
Texas A&M	7-5	28.5	21.7	22.8
Western Michigan	6-6	39.8	25.1	22.4
Minnesota	6-6	37.4	21.2	27.8
Iowa St	6-6	34.4	22.7	25.3
East Carolina	6-6	34.1	16.2	32.1
Tennessee	6-6	32.8	21.3	26.2
Wake Forest	6-6	32.1	18.8	28.4
Air Force	6-6	32.0	29.6	16.6
Michigan St	6-6	30.9	16.3	29.8
Hawaii	7-6	29.5	24.4	20.9
Louisiana-Monroe	6-6	29.2	23.8	21.3
Louisiana-Lafayette	6-6	28.7	24.3	20.6
Indiana	5-7	41.8	31.3	15.4
Central Florida	5-7	39.2	35.0	15.3
Utah St	5-7	38.2	21.1	26.5
SMU	5-7	37.2	31.5	17.6
UNLV	5-7	34.9	30.2	17.8
Oregon St	5-7	34.7	22.2	26.4
Kentucky	5-7	34.6	29.3	18.7
Buffalo	5-7	32.2	17.7	28.9
Washington	5-7	32.1	22.9	24.6
North Texas	5-7	30.5	19.7	26.4
Purdue	5-7	30.5	29.8	16.2
Mississippi St	5-7	30.2	16.8	29.5
Arkansas St	5-7	29.6	20.2	25.1
Baylor	5-7	29.6	27.5	17.2
San Diego St	4-8	51.0	19.3	26.3
Army	4-8	43.1	30.7	15.5
Wyoming	4-8	39.3	28.0	21.1
Vanderbilt	4-8	38.8	18.4	31.2
Louisville	4-8	36.8	21.9	26.6
Arkansas	4-8	35.8	24.0	24.5
Kent St	4-8	35.6	19.5	30.0
Kansas St	4-8	35.3	17.9	31.9
Louisiana Tech	4-8	34.5	18.7	30.5
San Jose St	4-8	32.0	28.2	18.6
UTEP	4-8	30.6	25.0	21.0
Florida Int'l	4-8	29.9	16.8	28.7
Florida Atlantic	4-8	27.5	22.9	20.8
Syracuse	3-9	62.0	22.8	12.4
Northwestern	3-9	54.3	34.5	3.5
Duke	3-9	46.9	28.2	16.7
Memphis	3-9	37.3	24.3	24.4
Virginia	3-9	36.8	13.5	35.0
Akron	3-9	34.4	30.7	15.7
Illinois	3-9	34.1	25.3	22.4
Tulane	3-9	34.0	24.3	23.7
Alabama-Birmingham	3-9	32.9	24.9	22.6
Nevada	3-9	28.6	27.6	16.8
Maryland	2-10	40.1	29.2	19.5
Eastern Michigan	2-10	37.7	13.8	36.7
Colorado	2-10	32.3	31.3	13.8
Western Kentucky	2-10	31.9	21.6	26.1
Washington St	1-11	87.5	11.9	0.0
New Mexico St	2-11	73.9	23.8	0.0
Rice	1-11	43.7	22.6	28.4
New Mexico	0-12	88.8	10.7	0.0
Miami OH	0-12	65.1	29.9	0.0
Ball St	0-12	62.9	33.4	0.0