Sunday, September 27, 2009

2009 Week 4 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 4 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

In something of a surprise, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated goes from 2 last week to 6!  A number of teams on the fringe last week got by crucial games and has set them up well for the remainder of the season.

Boise State remains the team with the best shot at finishing with a perfect record, now at a staggering 92% after getting by Bowling Green.  With no team ranked above #61 the rest of the year it is hard to see them faltering.  But their schedule will also be the reason many lobby for them not getting credit for a no-loss season and getting into the BCS championship game.

Alabama also remains slated to finish undefeated at a very high 67.5% chance.  They do still have #15 Auburn, #21 LSU, #24 South Carolina, and #27 Ole Miss on their schedule.

The additions to the list include Iowa (62.5%), Houston (56.9%), TCU (56.4%), and South Florida (45%).  Iowa may be rated a tad high and still has to visit Ohio State, but their schedule isn't that difficult other than that.  Houston got by their big obstacle in Texas Tech.  TCU got by Clemson but still has BYU and Utah.  South Florida also may be rated a bit high but has big tests in Cincinnati and Miami both at home.

Two teams projected with 1 loss do have a shot at going undefeated, those being Florida (22%) and Cincinnati (12%).  Texas will be favored in all remaining games but is projected to have 2 losses given their schedule but does have a 10.7% chance of finishing unblemished.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Boise St13-092.40.07.6
Alabama12-067.50.028.4
Iowa12-062.50.033.6
Houston12-056.90.036.5
TCU12-056.40.036.7
South Florida12-045.00.039.8
Cincinnati11-147.112.033.0
Virginia Tech11-144.60.041.5
Florida11-139.422.027.4
Penn State10-239.217.531.4
Wisconsin10-237.59.335.1
Texas10-233.229.919.0
Utah9-346.339.710.3
Brigham Young9-337.126.222.6
LSU9-336.720.528.9
Central Michigan9-336.627.121.8
Georgia Tech9-336.621.626.1
Marshall9-335.924.724.1
Miami FL9-334.817.530.4
Middle Tennessee St9-334.027.521.2
Ohio State9-334.017.729.6
Oregon9-332.730.418.4
Auburn9-332.631.516.6
Nebraska9-332.332.316.7
Missouri9-331.525.820.9
Bowling Green8-443.328.222.6
Northern Illinois8-440.032.317.8
South Carolina8-438.530.719.2
Fresno St8-437.821.027.7
Clemson8-437.226.822.6
Ohio U.8-436.617.131.0
Navy9-435.819.928.2
Tulsa8-435.624.723.5
Mississippi8-434.625.722.5
Texas Tech8-434.517.330.2
Rutgers8-434.413.834.1
Michigan8-433.320.227.7
North Carolina8-433.316.132.6
Pittsburgh8-432.621.725.4
Kansas8-432.524.922.1
Arizona8-432.225.421.8
Notre Dame8-431.420.226.2
Southern Miss8-431.015.330.7
Southern Cal8-429.721.524.0
California8-429.420.824.6
Oklahoma8-429.020.724.2
Stanford8-428.016.027.9
Colorado St7-536.832.316.9
West Virginia7-536.126.622.3
Connecticut7-535.829.318.8
Toledo7-535.423.524.6
Temple7-535.332.016.0
North Carolina St7-533.525.022.6
Florida St7-532.623.723.5
UCLA7-532.024.722.1
Georgia7-531.431.315.0
Idaho7-530.925.820.7
Arizona St7-529.420.624.6
Boston College7-529.418.127.1
Oklahoma St7-529.324.121.1
Troy7-529.019.525.4
Texas A&M7-528.521.722.8
Western Michigan6-639.825.122.4
Minnesota6-637.421.227.8
Iowa St6-634.422.725.3
East Carolina6-634.116.232.1
Tennessee6-632.821.326.2
Wake Forest6-632.118.828.4
Air Force6-632.029.616.6
Michigan St6-630.916.329.8
Hawaii7-629.524.420.9
Louisiana-Monroe6-629.223.821.3
Louisiana-Lafayette6-628.724.320.6
Indiana5-741.831.315.4
Central Florida5-739.235.015.3
Utah St5-738.221.126.5
SMU5-737.231.517.6
UNLV5-734.930.217.8
Oregon St5-734.722.226.4
Kentucky5-734.629.318.7
Buffalo5-732.217.728.9
Washington5-732.122.924.6
North Texas5-730.519.726.4
Purdue5-730.529.816.2
Mississippi St5-730.216.829.5
Arkansas St5-729.620.225.1
Baylor5-729.627.517.2
San Diego St4-851.019.326.3
Army4-843.130.715.5
Wyoming4-839.328.021.1
Vanderbilt4-838.818.431.2
Louisville4-836.821.926.6
Arkansas4-835.824.024.5
Kent St4-835.619.530.0
Kansas St4-835.317.931.9
Louisiana Tech4-834.518.730.5
San Jose St4-832.028.218.6
UTEP4-830.625.021.0
Florida Int'l4-829.916.828.7
Florida Atlantic4-827.522.920.8
Syracuse3-962.022.812.4
Northwestern3-954.334.53.5
Duke3-946.928.216.7
Memphis3-937.324.324.4
Virginia3-936.813.535.0
Akron3-934.430.715.7
Illinois3-934.125.322.4
Tulane3-934.024.323.7
Alabama-Birmingham3-932.924.922.6
Nevada3-928.627.616.8
Maryland2-1040.129.219.5
Eastern Michigan2-1037.713.836.7
Colorado2-1032.331.313.8
Western Kentucky2-1031.921.626.1
Washington St1-1187.511.90.0
New Mexico St2-1173.923.80.0
Rice1-1143.722.628.4
New Mexico0-1288.810.70.0
Miami OH0-1265.129.90.0
Ball St0-1262.933.40.0