Sunday, September 20, 2009

BCS Busters go Bust, Boise St., Houston, and TCU remain

After week 3's upsets and other entertaining games, it is time for an update to my earlier BCS Buster analysis.

My earlier analysis highlighted Boise State, TCU, BYU, Utah, and Buffalo.  Of those, 3 have gone bust while 2 have remained on track to find their way into a BCS bowl.  And as you'll see below, another team has joined the ranks of a BCS buster to replace the 3 that have fallen.

#2 Boise State
Boise State has moved up in the rankings and continues to be projected to finish 13-0 (76%) and is thus the most likely BCS buster.  Getting by Fresno State was one of the keys to accomplishing the feat and with that out of the way along with defeating Oregon, the toughest tests the rest of the way are #53 Tulsa and #58 Bowling Green.

#8 Houston
Houston joins the ranks of potential BCS busters with their 10 point win at Oklahoma State.  They are also projected to finish undefeated (49.7%) but still have #24 Texas Tech, #53 Tulsa, and #59 Mississippi State to deal with.  If they can get by Texas Tech this coming week it, it would confirm their high rating and could be smooth sailing for them the rest of the way, and they get them in Houston.

#12 TCU
TCU is hanging around that #10 spot and has improved their projected record to 11-1 (37.6%) with a 14% chance of going undefeated.  They will have a tough road with #18 Clemson, #31 Utah, #37 BYU, and #60 Air Force still on the schedule.

Chances are that one, but only one, will pull it off and due to the easy schedule it should be Boise State.