Sunday, September 20, 2009

2009 Week 3 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 3 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

Getting by Fresno State and improving their rating changes Boise State's projected record to 13-0.  And surprisingly the only other team joining them with an undefeated projection is Houston.  But with 28 teams still undefeated, there are a host of teams that could still pull it off.

The teams most likely to pull it off are those projected to have 1 loss and those are topped by Penn State with a 25.6% chance of doing so.  The current #1, Alabama has a 17.8% chance of being undefeated but is presently projected to have 1 loss.

Somewhat surprisingly Florida is not only no longer projected to go undefeated but is now projected to have 2 losses!  This is due to their rating dropping a bit after the close win over Tennessee but also future opponents LSU, Florida State, and Georgia all improving their rating.  Similarly, USC is now projected to have 3 losses and Cal is projected to be the best in the Pac-10 with just 2 losses.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Boise St 13-0 76.0 0.0 22.1
Houston 12-0 49.7 0.0 38.9
Penn State 11-1 40.6 25.6 25.1
Pittsburgh 11-1 37.2 18.1 29.3
Alabama 11-1 37.6 17.8 30.0
Cincinnati 11-1 37.8 16.0 31.0
Texas 11-1 36.6 15.8 31.9
TCU 11-1 37.6 14.0 33.4
Florida 10-2 32.1 29.2 19.2
Miami FL 10-2 33.9 26.1 22.4
California 10-2 31.6 24.7 22.5
Iowa 10-2 38.0 23.4 25.5
Northern Illinois 10-2 40.5 18.6 30.4
Navy 10-3 39.1 16.4 31.0
Kansas 9-3 31.4 28.6 18.3
Auburn 9-3 30.8 28.1 18.5
Missouri 9-3 32.2 28.0 19.0
Mississippi 9-3 29.5 27.2 18.6
North Carolina 9-3 31.6 27.1 19.9
Utah 9-3 38.8 22.4 26.1
Wisconsin 9-3 30.1 21.4 24.1
Ohio State 9-3 34.8 21.3 26.6
Brigham Young 9-3 31.2 18.3 27.4
Virginia Tech 9-3 29.6 17.1 27.5
LSU 9-3 31.6 17.0 29.8
Nebraska 9-3 31.4 16.6 29.5
Southern Cal 9-3 29.6 16.1 28.5
Clemson 9-3 31.2 15.1 30.6
Florida St 8-4 31.4 27.1 19.5
Middle Tennessee St 8-4 28.6 27.0 18.2
Connecticut 8-4 39.9 26.1 23.6
Oklahoma St 8-4 32.8 25.7 21.8
Colorado St 8-4 36.2 23.6 24.8
Ohio U. 8-4 33.9 23.3 24.4
Georgia Tech 8-4 30.8 23.2 23.0
Central Michigan 8-4 31.1 23.1 23.3
Michigan 8-4 32.0 22.3 24.6
Tulsa 8-4 33.6 22.1 25.1
Oregon 8-4 30.1 21.9 23.9
Oklahoma 8-4 29.0 19.2 25.6
Texas Tech 8-4 30.7 17.7 28.6
Georgia 8-4 29.0 17.0 27.8
Bowling Green 8-4 34.6 16.0 30.7
Hawaii 8-5 29.9 17.2 28.2
West Virginia 7-5 31.5 29.9 16.7
South Carolina 7-5 31.4 29.1 17.6
Fresno St 7-5 31.1 26.8 20.1
Southern Miss 7-5 30.5 25.9 20.2
Arizona 7-5 30.4 25.1 20.9
Marshall 7-5 27.7 25.1 19.1
UCLA 7-5 30.8 25.0 21.0
Buffalo 7-5 31.1 24.6 21.9
South Florida 7-5 28.7 19.5 25.2
Notre Dame 7-5 28.2 18.4 26.0
Air Force 7-5 28.3 17.8 26.5
Arizona St 7-5 25.5 16.8 25.3
Temple 6-6 32.2 30.3 17.2
Oregon St 6-6 31.6 27.9 18.7
UNLV 6-6 29.1 27.6 17.4
Rutgers 6-6 31.9 25.5 21.5
Minnesota 6-6 32.9 25.4 22.3
Kentucky 6-6 31.3 25.3 20.9
East Carolina 6-6 30.7 25.3 20.8
Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6 29.6 24.9 20.4
Texas A&M 6-6 28.1 23.0 21.1
Troy 6-6 27.0 22.7 20.7
North Texas 6-6 27.9 21.1 22.9
Boston College 6-6 27.5 21.0 22.8
Purdue 6-6 29.8 20.5 24.9
Stanford 6-6 28.0 19.6 24.5
Central Florida 6-6 34.6 17.2 30.6
Arkansas St 6-6 25.8 17.2 24.9
Western Michigan 6-6 30.1 17.1 28.3
Toledo 6-6 27.8 17.0 26.9
Army 5-7 35.8 29.2 18.1
Baylor 5-7 39.4 28.2 19.4
Wake Forest 5-7 30.1 27.9 17.3
Tennessee 5-7 28.8 26.5 18.1
Washington 5-7 29.6 25.9 19.1
Florida Int'l 5-7 27.6 25.1 19.0
Michigan St 5-7 29.6 24.4 20.7
North Carolina St 5-7 29.7 23.7 21.6
UTEP 5-7 30.3 20.1 25.8
Northwestern 5-7 35.8 19.6 30.0
Florida Atlantic 5-7 25.6 19.1 22.8
SMU 5-7 35.8 18.7 29.6
Louisiana Tech 5-7 31.2 18.0 28.9
Iowa St 5-7 36.3 17.5 31.2
Idaho 5-7 29.2 17.4 28.3
Mississippi St 5-7 28.3 17.0 28.2
Duke 5-7 31.1 16.9 30.0
Utah St 5-7 32.9 16.3 30.6
Indiana 4-8 40.8 29.5 18.3
Arkansas 4-8 31.7 27.2 19.0
Louisville 4-8 30.3 25.9 19.6
Louisiana-Monroe 4-8 27.7 24.9 18.7
Kansas St 4-8 39.0 23.8 25.6
Syracuse 4-8 40.6 22.4 28.2
Maryland 4-8 31.0 22.3 24.1
Nevada 4-8 28.0 22.1 22.0
Alabama-Birmingham 4-8 29.1 19.9 25.6
Illinois 4-8 29.4 19.8 25.8
San Jose St 4-8 29.7 19.5 26.2
San Diego St 4-8 40.6 17.5 31.1
Wyoming 3-9 32.3 29.0 17.3
Memphis 3-9 31.3 27.4 18.6
Akron 3-9 37.0 26.1 21.7
Vanderbilt 3-9 33.1 25.8 21.4
Kent St 3-9 37.4 22.6 27.1
Rice 3-9 29.8 18.1 28.1
Colorado 2-10 35.2 31.0 15.7
Eastern Michigan 2-10 35.0 25.4 22.8
Virginia 2-10 40.5 24.0 26.0
Tulane 2-10 31.9 18.6 29.8
New Mexico 2-10 38.1 15.9 37.2
Ball St 1-11 38.3 31.9 15.8
Western Kentucky 1-11 34.6 29.3 17.5
Washington St 1-11 82.6 16.5 0.0
New Mexico St 1-12 61.6 32.0 0.0
Miami OH 0-12 50.3 37.6 0.0