With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.
Getting by Fresno State and improving their rating changes Boise State's projected record to 13-0. And surprisingly the only other team joining them with an undefeated projection is Houston. But with 28 teams still undefeated, there are a host of teams that could still pull it off.
The teams most likely to pull it off are those projected to have 1 loss and those are topped by Penn State with a 25.6% chance of doing so. The current #1, Alabama has a 17.8% chance of being undefeated but is presently projected to have 1 loss.
Somewhat surprisingly Florida is not only no longer projected to go undefeated but is now projected to have 2 losses! This is due to their rating dropping a bit after the close win over Tennessee but also future opponents LSU, Florida State, and Georgia all improving their rating. Similarly, USC is now projected to have 3 losses and Cal is projected to be the best in the Pac-10 with just 2 losses.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Boise St | 13-0 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 22.1 |
| Houston | 12-0 | 49.7 | 0.0 | 38.9 |
| Penn State | 11-1 | 40.6 | 25.6 | 25.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 11-1 | 37.2 | 18.1 | 29.3 |
| Alabama | 11-1 | 37.6 | 17.8 | 30.0 |
| Cincinnati | 11-1 | 37.8 | 16.0 | 31.0 |
| Texas | 11-1 | 36.6 | 15.8 | 31.9 |
| TCU | 11-1 | 37.6 | 14.0 | 33.4 |
| Florida | 10-2 | 32.1 | 29.2 | 19.2 |
| Miami FL | 10-2 | 33.9 | 26.1 | 22.4 |
| California | 10-2 | 31.6 | 24.7 | 22.5 |
| Iowa | 10-2 | 38.0 | 23.4 | 25.5 |
| Northern Illinois | 10-2 | 40.5 | 18.6 | 30.4 |
| Navy | 10-3 | 39.1 | 16.4 | 31.0 |
| Kansas | 9-3 | 31.4 | 28.6 | 18.3 |
| Auburn | 9-3 | 30.8 | 28.1 | 18.5 |
| Missouri | 9-3 | 32.2 | 28.0 | 19.0 |
| Mississippi | 9-3 | 29.5 | 27.2 | 18.6 |
| North Carolina | 9-3 | 31.6 | 27.1 | 19.9 |
| Utah | 9-3 | 38.8 | 22.4 | 26.1 |
| Wisconsin | 9-3 | 30.1 | 21.4 | 24.1 |
| Ohio State | 9-3 | 34.8 | 21.3 | 26.6 |
| Brigham Young | 9-3 | 31.2 | 18.3 | 27.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 9-3 | 29.6 | 17.1 | 27.5 |
| LSU | 9-3 | 31.6 | 17.0 | 29.8 |
| Nebraska | 9-3 | 31.4 | 16.6 | 29.5 |
| Southern Cal | 9-3 | 29.6 | 16.1 | 28.5 |
| Clemson | 9-3 | 31.2 | 15.1 | 30.6 |
| Florida St | 8-4 | 31.4 | 27.1 | 19.5 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 8-4 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 18.2 |
| Connecticut | 8-4 | 39.9 | 26.1 | 23.6 |
| Oklahoma St | 8-4 | 32.8 | 25.7 | 21.8 |
| Colorado St | 8-4 | 36.2 | 23.6 | 24.8 |
| Ohio U. | 8-4 | 33.9 | 23.3 | 24.4 |
| Georgia Tech | 8-4 | 30.8 | 23.2 | 23.0 |
| Central Michigan | 8-4 | 31.1 | 23.1 | 23.3 |
| Michigan | 8-4 | 32.0 | 22.3 | 24.6 |
| Tulsa | 8-4 | 33.6 | 22.1 | 25.1 |
| Oregon | 8-4 | 30.1 | 21.9 | 23.9 |
| Oklahoma | 8-4 | 29.0 | 19.2 | 25.6 |
| Texas Tech | 8-4 | 30.7 | 17.7 | 28.6 |
| Georgia | 8-4 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 27.8 |
| Bowling Green | 8-4 | 34.6 | 16.0 | 30.7 |
| Hawaii | 8-5 | 29.9 | 17.2 | 28.2 |
| West Virginia | 7-5 | 31.5 | 29.9 | 16.7 |
| South Carolina | 7-5 | 31.4 | 29.1 | 17.6 |
| Fresno St | 7-5 | 31.1 | 26.8 | 20.1 |
| Southern Miss | 7-5 | 30.5 | 25.9 | 20.2 |
| Arizona | 7-5 | 30.4 | 25.1 | 20.9 |
| Marshall | 7-5 | 27.7 | 25.1 | 19.1 |
| UCLA | 7-5 | 30.8 | 25.0 | 21.0 |
| Buffalo | 7-5 | 31.1 | 24.6 | 21.9 |
| South Florida | 7-5 | 28.7 | 19.5 | 25.2 |
| Notre Dame | 7-5 | 28.2 | 18.4 | 26.0 |
| Air Force | 7-5 | 28.3 | 17.8 | 26.5 |
| Arizona St | 7-5 | 25.5 | 16.8 | 25.3 |
| Temple | 6-6 | 32.2 | 30.3 | 17.2 |
| Oregon St | 6-6 | 31.6 | 27.9 | 18.7 |
| UNLV | 6-6 | 29.1 | 27.6 | 17.4 |
| Rutgers | 6-6 | 31.9 | 25.5 | 21.5 |
| Minnesota | 6-6 | 32.9 | 25.4 | 22.3 |
| Kentucky | 6-6 | 31.3 | 25.3 | 20.9 |
| East Carolina | 6-6 | 30.7 | 25.3 | 20.8 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 6-6 | 29.6 | 24.9 | 20.4 |
| Texas A&M | 6-6 | 28.1 | 23.0 | 21.1 |
| Troy | 6-6 | 27.0 | 22.7 | 20.7 |
| North Texas | 6-6 | 27.9 | 21.1 | 22.9 |
| Boston College | 6-6 | 27.5 | 21.0 | 22.8 |
| Purdue | 6-6 | 29.8 | 20.5 | 24.9 |
| Stanford | 6-6 | 28.0 | 19.6 | 24.5 |
| Central Florida | 6-6 | 34.6 | 17.2 | 30.6 |
| Arkansas St | 6-6 | 25.8 | 17.2 | 24.9 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 30.1 | 17.1 | 28.3 |
| Toledo | 6-6 | 27.8 | 17.0 | 26.9 |
| Army | 5-7 | 35.8 | 29.2 | 18.1 |
| Baylor | 5-7 | 39.4 | 28.2 | 19.4 |
| Wake Forest | 5-7 | 30.1 | 27.9 | 17.3 |
| Tennessee | 5-7 | 28.8 | 26.5 | 18.1 |
| Washington | 5-7 | 29.6 | 25.9 | 19.1 |
| Florida Int'l | 5-7 | 27.6 | 25.1 | 19.0 |
| Michigan St | 5-7 | 29.6 | 24.4 | 20.7 |
| North Carolina St | 5-7 | 29.7 | 23.7 | 21.6 |
| UTEP | 5-7 | 30.3 | 20.1 | 25.8 |
| Northwestern | 5-7 | 35.8 | 19.6 | 30.0 |
| Florida Atlantic | 5-7 | 25.6 | 19.1 | 22.8 |
| SMU | 5-7 | 35.8 | 18.7 | 29.6 |
| Louisiana Tech | 5-7 | 31.2 | 18.0 | 28.9 |
| Iowa St | 5-7 | 36.3 | 17.5 | 31.2 |
| Idaho | 5-7 | 29.2 | 17.4 | 28.3 |
| Mississippi St | 5-7 | 28.3 | 17.0 | 28.2 |
| Duke | 5-7 | 31.1 | 16.9 | 30.0 |
| Utah St | 5-7 | 32.9 | 16.3 | 30.6 |
| Indiana | 4-8 | 40.8 | 29.5 | 18.3 |
| Arkansas | 4-8 | 31.7 | 27.2 | 19.0 |
| Louisville | 4-8 | 30.3 | 25.9 | 19.6 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 4-8 | 27.7 | 24.9 | 18.7 |
| Kansas St | 4-8 | 39.0 | 23.8 | 25.6 |
| Syracuse | 4-8 | 40.6 | 22.4 | 28.2 |
| Maryland | 4-8 | 31.0 | 22.3 | 24.1 |
| Nevada | 4-8 | 28.0 | 22.1 | 22.0 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 4-8 | 29.1 | 19.9 | 25.6 |
| Illinois | 4-8 | 29.4 | 19.8 | 25.8 |
| San Jose St | 4-8 | 29.7 | 19.5 | 26.2 |
| San Diego St | 4-8 | 40.6 | 17.5 | 31.1 |
| Wyoming | 3-9 | 32.3 | 29.0 | 17.3 |
| Memphis | 3-9 | 31.3 | 27.4 | 18.6 |
| Akron | 3-9 | 37.0 | 26.1 | 21.7 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-9 | 33.1 | 25.8 | 21.4 |
| Kent St | 3-9 | 37.4 | 22.6 | 27.1 |
| Rice | 3-9 | 29.8 | 18.1 | 28.1 |
| Colorado | 2-10 | 35.2 | 31.0 | 15.7 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-10 | 35.0 | 25.4 | 22.8 |
| Virginia | 2-10 | 40.5 | 24.0 | 26.0 |
| Tulane | 2-10 | 31.9 | 18.6 | 29.8 |
| New Mexico | 2-10 | 38.1 | 15.9 | 37.2 |
| Ball St | 1-11 | 38.3 | 31.9 | 15.8 |
| Western Kentucky | 1-11 | 34.6 | 29.3 | 17.5 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 82.6 | 16.5 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico St | 1-12 | 61.6 | 32.0 | 0.0 |
| Miami OH | 0-12 | 50.3 | 37.6 | 0.0 |
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