With week 5 already started a day earlier than normal, it is time for a preview of some of the interesting games. Full picks are here.
Last week the computer had a good week overall and in the games I highlighted didn't get Purdue in the upset but had the spread right, got the Houston win correct, had Oregon and the points, and Virginia Tech and the points too.
Hawaii and Louisiana Tech are playing tonight with Hawaii the computer pick but Louisiana Tech the pick by Vegas. This isn't uncommon for Hawaii as their real road disadvantage is larger than the standard computer factor, and that is proving true with Hawaii losing by 21 as I write this.
So lets get to some games my computer has a shot at picking right! While it wouldn't ordinarily be a notable game, I highlight South Florida visiting Syracuse as it will be a test to see if South Florida is for real. With the computer picking them by 24, there is plenty of opportunity for them to fall short which will drop them in the rankings.
Washington visits Notre Dame and while the computer agrees that Notre Dame should win, the margin is only 6 while the line is around 13.5. Was the win over USC an aberation and they are more like the team that lost to Stanford? The computer doesn't think so.
I'm a little baffled as to why Tennessee is favored by 2.5 over Auburn as the computer has Auburn winning by 5.1. Is there an injury I'm not aware of or do the odds makers really like a team that lost at home to UCLA and didn't beat Ohio very convincingly?
Miami hosts Oklahoma and is picked by 1 by the computer while the visitors are the 7 point Vegas pick. Does Miami recover from the loss or does Oklahoma keep it going after the early loss?
LSU and Georgia appears to be a great game with Georgia the Vegas pick by 3 but the computer liking LSU by a mere 0.2. Tough to pick, but will home field be enough for Georgia?
Last, in a game that could go far in deciding the Pac-10, USC visits Cal. USC has already had their misstep in a Pac-10 road game but Cal will be looking to bounce back after last week. The computer likes Cal by 1.1 even though the line is USC by 5.
Enjoy the games!
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Earlier prediction errors corrected
Thanks to an observant reader, I discovered a bug in my script that generates the HTML for the predictions postings that resulted in the favorite and underdog being swapped on a few picks. I've now corrected this in the earlier postings and on the ratings web-site to match the actual picks.
Apologies for the incorrect picks earlier.
Apologies for the incorrect picks earlier.
2009 Week 4 NFL Predictions
Here are my computer's predictions for week 4 of the NFL season. These are also posted here each week for easier reference.
After 2 weeks the computer is doing quite well going 30-17-1 against the spread and 32-16 straight up beating Vegas' 31-16 straight up.
The computer is picking 3 upsets this week, Jacksonville over Tennessee, Baltimore over New England, and Denver over Dallas. Last week the 1 upset missed due in part to Seattle's injuries that the computer cannot take into account. But all 3 upsets are based on the results this year while the Vegas line is based more on expectations that Tennessee is not an 0-3 team, New England is still New England, and Denver's 3-0 is a bit of a fraud. This is what makes it interesting!
Updated Noon PDT 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in picks.
After 2 weeks the computer is doing quite well going 30-17-1 against the spread and 32-16 straight up beating Vegas' 31-16 straight up.
The computer is picking 3 upsets this week, Jacksonville over Tennessee, Baltimore over New England, and Denver over Dallas. Last week the 1 upset missed due in part to Seattle's injuries that the computer cannot take into account. But all 3 upsets are based on the results this year while the Vegas line is based more on expectations that Tennessee is not an 0-3 team, New England is still New England, and Denver's 3-0 is a bit of a fraud. This is what makes it interesting!
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
| Denver | 6.3 | Dallas |
| Houston | 3.9 | Oakland |
| Jacksonville | 2.5 | Tennessee |
| Minnesota | 10.2 | Green Bay |
| San Francisco | 21.2 | St Louis |
| Pittsburgh | 2.3 | San Diego |
| New Orleans | 9.3 | NY Jets |
| Buffalo | 3.2 | Miami |
| NY Giants | 10.9 | Kansas City |
| Baltimore | 0.8 | New England |
| Washington | 6.1 | Tampa Bay |
| Cincinnati | 6.2 | Cleveland |
| Chicago | 9.2 | Detroit |
| Indianapolis | 10.4 | Seattle |
Updated Noon PDT 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in picks.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
2009 Week 5 College Football Predictions
Here are my computer's predictions for week 5 of the college
football season. These also appear, and the current predictions always
will, at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-predictions. And see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-prediction-performance for the historical performance of the picks.
These predictions are based on the week 4 ratings so there are 4 games for many teams and as we saw from last weeks performance, they have gotten more accurate. A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later this week.
Updated 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in some picks.
These predictions are based on the week 4 ratings so there are 4 games for many teams and as we saw from last weeks performance, they have gotten more accurate. A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later this week.
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
| South Florida | 24.3 | Syracuse |
| South Carolina | 29.9 | South Carolina St |
| Marshall | 9.5 | East Carolina |
| Wisconsin | 3.7 | Minnesota |
| Purdue | 16.0 | Northwestern |
| Ohio State | 9.3 | Indiana |
| Brigham Young | 13.8 | Utah St |
| Hawaii | 3.4 | Louisiana Tech |
| Iowa | 28.4 | Arkansas St |
| Idaho | 2.4 | Colorado St |
| Temple | 11.4 | Eastern Michigan |
| Notre Dame | 6.0 | Washington |
| Bowling Green | 8.0 | Ohio U. |
| West Virginia | 12.3 | Colorado |
| Toledo | 10.7 | Ball St |
| Auburn | 5.1 | Tennessee |
| Cincinnati | 33.4 | Miami OH |
| Northern Illinois | 10.7 | Western Michigan |
| Alabama | 21.4 | Kentucky |
| Penn State | 11.3 | Illinois |
| Miami FL | 1.0 | Oklahoma |
| LSU | 0.2 | Georgia |
| Boise St | 38.9 | UC-Davis |
| San Diego St | 14.2 | New Mexico St |
| Virginia Tech | 20.7 | Duke |
| Oregon | 29.5 | Washington St |
| Arizona St | 7.5 | Oregon St |
| California | 1.1 | Southern Cal |
| Navy | 7.6 | Air Force |
| Central Florida | 5.7 | Memphis |
| Houston | 18.7 | UTEP |
| Clemson | 16.2 | Maryland |
| Wake Forest | 1.8 | North Carolina St |
| Central Michigan | 10.5 | Buffalo |
| Texas A&M | 2.2 | Arkansas |
| Michigan St | 2.5 | Michigan |
| North Carolina | 12.3 | Virginia |
| Army | 4.1 | Tulane |
| Tulsa | 17.3 | Rice |
| Iowa St | 4.8 | Kansas St |
| Mississippi | 10.8 | Vanderbilt |
| Pittsburgh | 8.0 | Louisville |
| Georgia Tech | 5.4 | Mississippi St |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 5.8 | Florida Int'l |
| Florida St | 5.3 | Boston College |
| Stanford | 6.1 | UCLA |
| Texas Tech | 35.1 | New Mexico |
| TCU | 27.8 | SMU |
| Florida Atlantic | 3.1 | Wyoming |
Updated 9/30: Fixed transcription errors in some picks.
2009 Week 3 NFL Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 3
of the NFL season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.
New Orleans off their 3rd impressive win moves to the top spot on the projected record list at 15-1. Note that a 14-2 record is nearly the most likely record at 38.8% versus the 39% for 15-1. This may seem like a pretty gaudy record and it is, but it is based on their performance this year which has been stellar.
Minnesota and the Jets are close behind projected to be at 14-2 and Denver and San Francisco are at 13-3. These teams will all have to keep up their surprising play to keep those projections up there.
If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners New York Jets, Denver, Baltimore, and Indianapolis with wildcards New England and then in a dog fight, one of San Diego, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. The NFC would have New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the New York Giants as division winners with wildcards being Dallas and Philadelphia.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
New Orleans off their 3rd impressive win moves to the top spot on the projected record list at 15-1. Note that a 14-2 record is nearly the most likely record at 38.8% versus the 39% for 15-1. This may seem like a pretty gaudy record and it is, but it is based on their performance this year which has been stellar.
Minnesota and the Jets are close behind projected to be at 14-2 and Denver and San Francisco are at 13-3. These teams will all have to keep up their surprising play to keep those projections up there.
If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners New York Jets, Denver, Baltimore, and Indianapolis with wildcards New England and then in a dog fight, one of San Diego, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo. The NFC would have New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, and the New York Giants as division winners with wildcards being Dallas and Philadelphia.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| New Orleans | 15-1 | 39.0 | 38.8 | 17.1 |
| Minnesota | 14-2 | 28.1 | 17.1 | 26.4 |
| NY Jets | 14-2 | 32.9 | 14.1 | 32.0 |
| Denver | 13-3 | 27.4 | 18.4 | 24.8 |
| San Francisco | 13-3 | 28.9 | 15.9 | 28.0 |
| Baltimore | 12-4 | 24.3 | 24.1 | 16.8 |
| NY Giants | 12-4 | 30.8 | 22.7 | 23.0 |
| Indianapolis | 12-4 | 24.7 | 18.9 | 22.0 |
| Dallas | 10-6 | 28.4 | 20.1 | 24.0 |
| New England | 10-6 | 25.7 | 20.1 | 21.8 |
| Philadelphia | 10-6 | 23.6 | 19.7 | 20.1 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 26.0 | 25.9 | 16.4 |
| Cincinnati | 9-7 | 30.8 | 23.5 | 22.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 9-7 | 25.8 | 20.0 | 22.0 |
| Buffalo | 9-7 | 25.7 | 19.0 | 22.8 |
| Chicago | 9-7 | 25.3 | 17.3 | 24.1 |
| Arizona | 8-8 | 24.4 | 22.4 | 18.3 |
| Atlanta | 8-8 | 25.8 | 19.1 | 22.9 |
| Green Bay | 8-8 | 23.8 | 17.0 | 23.1 |
| Jacksonville | 7-9 | 26.8 | 24.7 | 18.2 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 23.7 | 18.2 | 21.7 |
| Tennessee | 6-10 | 25.6 | 17.8 | 24.2 |
| Houston | 5-11 | 28.1 | 23.9 | 19.9 |
| Detroit | 4-12 | 27.6 | 27.3 | 15.8 |
| Oakland | 4-12 | 30.9 | 26.3 | 19.2 |
| Washington | 4-12 | 30.5 | 26.1 | 19.0 |
| Miami | 4-12 | 26.4 | 17.8 | 25.2 |
| Carolina | 3-13 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 16.4 |
| Cleveland | 3-13 | 25.3 | 22.9 | 18.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 2-14 | 29.7 | 25.6 | 19.3 |
| Kansas City | 2-14 | 32.6 | 20.1 | 28.3 |
| St Louis | 2-14 | 30.4 | 18.2 | 29.5 |
2009 Week 3 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary
Week 3 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted
in some changes in the ratings. The ratings are below but can always
be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.
New Orleans extends the ratings lead cementing their hold on #1 with over a 6 point advantage over #2 Baltimore and #3 New York Jets. Denver does make a big jump to #4 after a second convincing win in 2 weeks. Minnesota also moves into the top-5.
These moves were at the expense of the Giants and Eagles who both dropped a few spots, but interestingly the Giants didn't lose ratings points, they just got passed by other teams that improved their ratings more. Philly suffered a bit by having previous opponent Carolina not do so well against a 1-loss Dallas team last night.
The computer did very well picking games this week going 12-4 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners too. That puts the computer at a very good 30-17-1 against the spread for the season.
New Orleans extends the ratings lead cementing their hold on #1 with over a 6 point advantage over #2 Baltimore and #3 New York Jets. Denver does make a big jump to #4 after a second convincing win in 2 weeks. Minnesota also moves into the top-5.
These moves were at the expense of the Giants and Eagles who both dropped a few spots, but interestingly the Giants didn't lose ratings points, they just got passed by other teams that improved their ratings more. Philly suffered a bit by having previous opponent Carolina not do so well against a 1-loss Dallas team last night.
The computer did very well picking games this week going 12-4 against the spread and 11-5 picking winners too. That puts the computer at a very good 30-17-1 against the spread for the season.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | New Orleans | 95.099 | 3-0 | 82.543 | +0, +4.745 |
| 2 | Baltimore | 88.873 | 3-0 | 75.633 | +0, +0.228 |
| 3 | NY Jets | 88.816 | 3-0 | 79.846 | +0, +0.822 |
| 4 | Denver | 87.905 | 3-0 | 78.565 | +8, +4.549 |
| 5 | Minnesota | 87.487 | 3-0 | 79.822 | +2, +1.501 |
| 6 | San Francisco | 87.323 | 2-1 | 83.600 | +0, +1.253 |
| 7 | NY Giants | 87.271 | 3-0 | 78.962 | -3, +0.192 |
| 8 | Indianapolis | 86.074 | 3-0 | 80.117 | +5, +3.023 |
| 9 | Philadelphia | 86.036 | 2-1 | 80.160 | -4, -0.959 |
| 10 | New England | 85.079 | 2-1 | 83.503 | +4, +2.430 |
| 11 | Dallas | 84.571 | 2-1 | 77.462 | -2, -0.734 |
| 12 | San Diego | 83.198 | 2-1 | 79.776 | -1, -0.403 |
| 13 | Buffalo | 82.763 | 1-2 | 83.433 | +4, +0.326 |
| 14 | Pittsburgh | 82.536 | 1-2 | 82.400 | -4, -2.441 |
| 15 | Cincinnati | 82.485 | 2-1 | 82.565 | +8, +3.539 |
| 16 | Chicago | 82.016 | 2-1 | 81.488 | +2, +1.175 |
| 17 | Atlanta | 81.929 | 2-1 | 77.876 | -9, -3.707 |
| 18 | Arizona | 81.641 | 1-2 | 83.183 | -3, -0.996 |
| 19 | Green Bay | 80.255 | 2-1 | 76.883 | +2, +0.681 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 79.698 | 0-3 | 84.037 | -4, -2.776 |
| 21 | Jacksonville | 79.152 | 1-2 | 82.825 | +6, +1.577 |
| 22 | Seattle | 78.673 | 1-2 | 78.496 | -3, -1.861 |
| 23 | Houston | 77.760 | 1-2 | 81.555 | -3, -1.895 |
| 24 | Oakland | 76.898 | 1-2 | 80.498 | +2, -1.047 |
| 25 | Miami | 76.558 | 0-3 | 84.734 | -1, -1.456 |
| 26 | Washington | 76.194 | 1-2 | 78.417 | -4, -2.904 |
| 27 | Detroit | 75.831 | 1-2 | 85.260 | +4, +3.259 |
| 28 | Carolina | 74.992 | 0-3 | 85.179 | -3, -2.971 |
| 29 | Kansas City | 73.389 | 0-3 | 84.935 | +0, -1.106 |
| 30 | Cleveland | 73.311 | 0-3 | 89.088 | +0, +0.187 |
| 31 | Tampa Bay | 73.123 | 0-3 | 83.868 | -3, -2.396 |
| 32 | St Louis | 69.149 | 0-3 | 79.374 | +0, -1.890 |
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Comparing the polls with the computer rankings
After 4 weeks of the season, you'd like to think both a computer ratings system and the poll voters have enough information to make a fair estimation of the rating/ranking of the top-25. So, I thought I'd compare several polls and rating systems below to see if there was any consistency. For the purposes of this comparison I'm using the AP and Coaches polls along with my computer and the Sagarin Predictor computer ratings.
In the top-10, the standout differences in the top-10 are that LSU, #4 in both polls, is #21 and #12 in the computers. And my computer is not nearly as impressed by USC and Ohio State as the polls and Sagarin. And interestingly Sagarin has 1-loss Oklahoma rated #2!
Outside the top-10 Sagarin also doesn't like Houston while the polls and my computer are pretty consistent there. My computer is ready to anoint Iowa as the best in the Big-Televen but the others are not. The computers are consistent in saying that Oklahoma State, Kansas, Georgia, and Michigan are overrated in the polls and that Oregon and Nebraska are a bit underrated.
An interesting comparison. What do you think?
| Team | AP | Coaches | Schmidt | Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Texas | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Alabama | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| LSU | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 |
| Boise State | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Virginia Tech | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| USC | 7 | 7 | 19 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 9 | 9 | 25 | 6 |
| Cincinnati | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| TCU | 11 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
| Houston | 12 | 15 | 16 | 49 |
| Iowa | 13 | 17 | 5 | 11 |
| Oklahoma State | 14 | 12 | 36 | 39 |
| Penn State | 15 | 13 | 30 | 17 |
| Oregon | 16 | 25 | 10 | 9 |
| Miami | 17 | 21 | 13 | 23 |
| Kansas | 18 | 16 | 31 | 42 |
| Georgia | 19 | 14 | 34 | 27 |
| BYU | 20 | 21 | 33 | 15 |
| Mississippi | 21 | 18 | 27 | 44 |
| Michigan | 22 | 20 | 48 | 45 |
| Nebraska | 23 | 24 | 7 | 10 |
| California | 24 | 19 | 28 | 18 |
| Georgia Tech | 25 | 26 | 18 | 22 |
In the top-10, the standout differences in the top-10 are that LSU, #4 in both polls, is #21 and #12 in the computers. And my computer is not nearly as impressed by USC and Ohio State as the polls and Sagarin. And interestingly Sagarin has 1-loss Oklahoma rated #2!
Outside the top-10 Sagarin also doesn't like Houston while the polls and my computer are pretty consistent there. My computer is ready to anoint Iowa as the best in the Big-Televen but the others are not. The computers are consistent in saying that Oklahoma State, Kansas, Georgia, and Michigan are overrated in the polls and that Oregon and Nebraska are a bit underrated.
An interesting comparison. What do you think?
2009 Week 4 College Football Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 4
of the college football season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.
With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.
In something of a surprise, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated goes from 2 last week to 6! A number of teams on the fringe last week got by crucial games and has set them up well for the remainder of the season.
Boise State remains the team with the best shot at finishing with a perfect record, now at a staggering 92% after getting by Bowling Green. With no team ranked above #61 the rest of the year it is hard to see them faltering. But their schedule will also be the reason many lobby for them not getting credit for a no-loss season and getting into the BCS championship game.
Alabama also remains slated to finish undefeated at a very high 67.5% chance. They do still have #15 Auburn, #21 LSU, #24 South Carolina, and #27 Ole Miss on their schedule.
The additions to the list include Iowa (62.5%), Houston (56.9%), TCU (56.4%), and South Florida (45%). Iowa may be rated a tad high and still has to visit Ohio State, but their schedule isn't that difficult other than that. Houston got by their big obstacle in Texas Tech. TCU got by Clemson but still has BYU and Utah. South Florida also may be rated a bit high but has big tests in Cincinnati and Miami both at home.
Two teams projected with 1 loss do have a shot at going undefeated, those being Florida (22%) and Cincinnati (12%). Texas will be favored in all remaining games but is projected to have 2 losses given their schedule but does have a 10.7% chance of finishing unblemished.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.
In something of a surprise, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated goes from 2 last week to 6! A number of teams on the fringe last week got by crucial games and has set them up well for the remainder of the season.
Boise State remains the team with the best shot at finishing with a perfect record, now at a staggering 92% after getting by Bowling Green. With no team ranked above #61 the rest of the year it is hard to see them faltering. But their schedule will also be the reason many lobby for them not getting credit for a no-loss season and getting into the BCS championship game.
Alabama also remains slated to finish undefeated at a very high 67.5% chance. They do still have #15 Auburn, #21 LSU, #24 South Carolina, and #27 Ole Miss on their schedule.
The additions to the list include Iowa (62.5%), Houston (56.9%), TCU (56.4%), and South Florida (45%). Iowa may be rated a tad high and still has to visit Ohio State, but their schedule isn't that difficult other than that. Houston got by their big obstacle in Texas Tech. TCU got by Clemson but still has BYU and Utah. South Florida also may be rated a bit high but has big tests in Cincinnati and Miami both at home.
Two teams projected with 1 loss do have a shot at going undefeated, those being Florida (22%) and Cincinnati (12%). Texas will be favored in all remaining games but is projected to have 2 losses given their schedule but does have a 10.7% chance of finishing unblemished.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Boise St | 13-0 | 92.4 | 0.0 | 7.6 |
| Alabama | 12-0 | 67.5 | 0.0 | 28.4 |
| Iowa | 12-0 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 33.6 |
| Houston | 12-0 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 36.5 |
| TCU | 12-0 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 36.7 |
| South Florida | 12-0 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 39.8 |
| Cincinnati | 11-1 | 47.1 | 12.0 | 33.0 |
| Virginia Tech | 11-1 | 44.6 | 0.0 | 41.5 |
| Florida | 11-1 | 39.4 | 22.0 | 27.4 |
| Penn State | 10-2 | 39.2 | 17.5 | 31.4 |
| Wisconsin | 10-2 | 37.5 | 9.3 | 35.1 |
| Texas | 10-2 | 33.2 | 29.9 | 19.0 |
| Utah | 9-3 | 46.3 | 39.7 | 10.3 |
| Brigham Young | 9-3 | 37.1 | 26.2 | 22.6 |
| LSU | 9-3 | 36.7 | 20.5 | 28.9 |
| Central Michigan | 9-3 | 36.6 | 27.1 | 21.8 |
| Georgia Tech | 9-3 | 36.6 | 21.6 | 26.1 |
| Marshall | 9-3 | 35.9 | 24.7 | 24.1 |
| Miami FL | 9-3 | 34.8 | 17.5 | 30.4 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 9-3 | 34.0 | 27.5 | 21.2 |
| Ohio State | 9-3 | 34.0 | 17.7 | 29.6 |
| Oregon | 9-3 | 32.7 | 30.4 | 18.4 |
| Auburn | 9-3 | 32.6 | 31.5 | 16.6 |
| Nebraska | 9-3 | 32.3 | 32.3 | 16.7 |
| Missouri | 9-3 | 31.5 | 25.8 | 20.9 |
| Bowling Green | 8-4 | 43.3 | 28.2 | 22.6 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 40.0 | 32.3 | 17.8 |
| South Carolina | 8-4 | 38.5 | 30.7 | 19.2 |
| Fresno St | 8-4 | 37.8 | 21.0 | 27.7 |
| Clemson | 8-4 | 37.2 | 26.8 | 22.6 |
| Ohio U. | 8-4 | 36.6 | 17.1 | 31.0 |
| Navy | 9-4 | 35.8 | 19.9 | 28.2 |
| Tulsa | 8-4 | 35.6 | 24.7 | 23.5 |
| Mississippi | 8-4 | 34.6 | 25.7 | 22.5 |
| Texas Tech | 8-4 | 34.5 | 17.3 | 30.2 |
| Rutgers | 8-4 | 34.4 | 13.8 | 34.1 |
| Michigan | 8-4 | 33.3 | 20.2 | 27.7 |
| North Carolina | 8-4 | 33.3 | 16.1 | 32.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 8-4 | 32.6 | 21.7 | 25.4 |
| Kansas | 8-4 | 32.5 | 24.9 | 22.1 |
| Arizona | 8-4 | 32.2 | 25.4 | 21.8 |
| Notre Dame | 8-4 | 31.4 | 20.2 | 26.2 |
| Southern Miss | 8-4 | 31.0 | 15.3 | 30.7 |
| Southern Cal | 8-4 | 29.7 | 21.5 | 24.0 |
| California | 8-4 | 29.4 | 20.8 | 24.6 |
| Oklahoma | 8-4 | 29.0 | 20.7 | 24.2 |
| Stanford | 8-4 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 27.9 |
| Colorado St | 7-5 | 36.8 | 32.3 | 16.9 |
| West Virginia | 7-5 | 36.1 | 26.6 | 22.3 |
| Connecticut | 7-5 | 35.8 | 29.3 | 18.8 |
| Toledo | 7-5 | 35.4 | 23.5 | 24.6 |
| Temple | 7-5 | 35.3 | 32.0 | 16.0 |
| North Carolina St | 7-5 | 33.5 | 25.0 | 22.6 |
| Florida St | 7-5 | 32.6 | 23.7 | 23.5 |
| UCLA | 7-5 | 32.0 | 24.7 | 22.1 |
| Georgia | 7-5 | 31.4 | 31.3 | 15.0 |
| Idaho | 7-5 | 30.9 | 25.8 | 20.7 |
| Arizona St | 7-5 | 29.4 | 20.6 | 24.6 |
| Boston College | 7-5 | 29.4 | 18.1 | 27.1 |
| Oklahoma St | 7-5 | 29.3 | 24.1 | 21.1 |
| Troy | 7-5 | 29.0 | 19.5 | 25.4 |
| Texas A&M | 7-5 | 28.5 | 21.7 | 22.8 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 39.8 | 25.1 | 22.4 |
| Minnesota | 6-6 | 37.4 | 21.2 | 27.8 |
| Iowa St | 6-6 | 34.4 | 22.7 | 25.3 |
| East Carolina | 6-6 | 34.1 | 16.2 | 32.1 |
| Tennessee | 6-6 | 32.8 | 21.3 | 26.2 |
| Wake Forest | 6-6 | 32.1 | 18.8 | 28.4 |
| Air Force | 6-6 | 32.0 | 29.6 | 16.6 |
| Michigan St | 6-6 | 30.9 | 16.3 | 29.8 |
| Hawaii | 7-6 | 29.5 | 24.4 | 20.9 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 6-6 | 29.2 | 23.8 | 21.3 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 6-6 | 28.7 | 24.3 | 20.6 |
| Indiana | 5-7 | 41.8 | 31.3 | 15.4 |
| Central Florida | 5-7 | 39.2 | 35.0 | 15.3 |
| Utah St | 5-7 | 38.2 | 21.1 | 26.5 |
| SMU | 5-7 | 37.2 | 31.5 | 17.6 |
| UNLV | 5-7 | 34.9 | 30.2 | 17.8 |
| Oregon St | 5-7 | 34.7 | 22.2 | 26.4 |
| Kentucky | 5-7 | 34.6 | 29.3 | 18.7 |
| Buffalo | 5-7 | 32.2 | 17.7 | 28.9 |
| Washington | 5-7 | 32.1 | 22.9 | 24.6 |
| North Texas | 5-7 | 30.5 | 19.7 | 26.4 |
| Purdue | 5-7 | 30.5 | 29.8 | 16.2 |
| Mississippi St | 5-7 | 30.2 | 16.8 | 29.5 |
| Arkansas St | 5-7 | 29.6 | 20.2 | 25.1 |
| Baylor | 5-7 | 29.6 | 27.5 | 17.2 |
| San Diego St | 4-8 | 51.0 | 19.3 | 26.3 |
| Army | 4-8 | 43.1 | 30.7 | 15.5 |
| Wyoming | 4-8 | 39.3 | 28.0 | 21.1 |
| Vanderbilt | 4-8 | 38.8 | 18.4 | 31.2 |
| Louisville | 4-8 | 36.8 | 21.9 | 26.6 |
| Arkansas | 4-8 | 35.8 | 24.0 | 24.5 |
| Kent St | 4-8 | 35.6 | 19.5 | 30.0 |
| Kansas St | 4-8 | 35.3 | 17.9 | 31.9 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-8 | 34.5 | 18.7 | 30.5 |
| San Jose St | 4-8 | 32.0 | 28.2 | 18.6 |
| UTEP | 4-8 | 30.6 | 25.0 | 21.0 |
| Florida Int'l | 4-8 | 29.9 | 16.8 | 28.7 |
| Florida Atlantic | 4-8 | 27.5 | 22.9 | 20.8 |
| Syracuse | 3-9 | 62.0 | 22.8 | 12.4 |
| Northwestern | 3-9 | 54.3 | 34.5 | 3.5 |
| Duke | 3-9 | 46.9 | 28.2 | 16.7 |
| Memphis | 3-9 | 37.3 | 24.3 | 24.4 |
| Virginia | 3-9 | 36.8 | 13.5 | 35.0 |
| Akron | 3-9 | 34.4 | 30.7 | 15.7 |
| Illinois | 3-9 | 34.1 | 25.3 | 22.4 |
| Tulane | 3-9 | 34.0 | 24.3 | 23.7 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 3-9 | 32.9 | 24.9 | 22.6 |
| Nevada | 3-9 | 28.6 | 27.6 | 16.8 |
| Maryland | 2-10 | 40.1 | 29.2 | 19.5 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-10 | 37.7 | 13.8 | 36.7 |
| Colorado | 2-10 | 32.3 | 31.3 | 13.8 |
| Western Kentucky | 2-10 | 31.9 | 21.6 | 26.1 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 87.5 | 11.9 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico St | 2-11 | 73.9 | 23.8 | 0.0 |
| Rice | 1-11 | 43.7 | 22.6 | 28.4 |
| New Mexico | 0-12 | 88.8 | 10.7 | 0.0 |
| Miami OH | 0-12 | 65.1 | 29.9 | 0.0 |
| Ball St | 0-12 | 62.9 | 33.4 | 0.0 |
2009 Week 4 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Results
Ratings through week 4 (games played thru 26-Sep). These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.
Week 4 continued the theme of some upsets, an analysis of those upsets here, but with more data the computer is beginning to give a clearer picture of how each team should be rated and how they compare, so this is when it gets interesting.
Alabama remains #1 with Boise State close behind at #2. Both teams had convincing wins, Boise State on the road, and that boosted their ratings over 5 points each. Boise State was also buoyed by prior opponent Oregon winning convincingly over prior undefeated Cal. There was a bunch of changed behind them though with new #3 thru #5 that each made big moves this week to get there.
South Florida moves to #3, and my gut says that is too high, but even though they've played 4 games, only one has been meaningful, and my computer aims to not overly penalize teams for have a few weak opponents by giving more weight to the meaningful games, so South Florida's rating is based for the most part on their win over Florida State.
Virginia Tech moves to #4 but for a different reason. Their only loss was to #1 Alabama and they have a quality win over now #7 Nebraska and a walloping of former undefeated and now #13 Miami this week.
And Iowa moves to #5 after their big win over Penn State at Happy Valley, and they have another quality win over 1-loss Arizona. While they have a narrow win over Northern Iowa, that is Northern Iowa's only loss and they've had huge wins over their other opponents so perhaps that narrow win wasn't so bad.
With 17 undefeated teams still, including traditional and recent powers Florida, Texas, and LSU, there is still a lot to be determined and many teams still have a shot at moving to the top of the ratings. Check out the season projections which will be updated shortly to see who might stay undefeated.
As usually happens in week 4, the computer started doing better on predictions going 32-26-1 against the spread, and 9-4 on the best picks. The best picks are now a very good 18-9-1 for the year. Full prediction performance here.
Week 4 continued the theme of some upsets, an analysis of those upsets here, but with more data the computer is beginning to give a clearer picture of how each team should be rated and how they compare, so this is when it gets interesting.
Alabama remains #1 with Boise State close behind at #2. Both teams had convincing wins, Boise State on the road, and that boosted their ratings over 5 points each. Boise State was also buoyed by prior opponent Oregon winning convincingly over prior undefeated Cal. There was a bunch of changed behind them though with new #3 thru #5 that each made big moves this week to get there.
South Florida moves to #3, and my gut says that is too high, but even though they've played 4 games, only one has been meaningful, and my computer aims to not overly penalize teams for have a few weak opponents by giving more weight to the meaningful games, so South Florida's rating is based for the most part on their win over Florida State.
Virginia Tech moves to #4 but for a different reason. Their only loss was to #1 Alabama and they have a quality win over now #7 Nebraska and a walloping of former undefeated and now #13 Miami this week.
And Iowa moves to #5 after their big win over Penn State at Happy Valley, and they have another quality win over 1-loss Arizona. While they have a narrow win over Northern Iowa, that is Northern Iowa's only loss and they've had huge wins over their other opponents so perhaps that narrow win wasn't so bad.
With 17 undefeated teams still, including traditional and recent powers Florida, Texas, and LSU, there is still a lot to be determined and many teams still have a shot at moving to the top of the ratings. Check out the season projections which will be updated shortly to see who might stay undefeated.
As usually happens in week 4, the computer started doing better on predictions going 32-26-1 against the spread, and 9-4 on the best picks. The best picks are now a very good 18-9-1 for the year. Full prediction performance here.
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
| 1 |
Alabama |
88.262 |
3-0 |
68.559 |
+3, +0.840 |
| 2 |
Boise St |
87.975 |
3-0 |
66.646 |
+6, +2.244 |
| 3 |
Texas |
87.250 |
3-0 |
66.148 |
+0, -2.009 |
| 4 |
Florida |
86.897 |
3-0 |
58.939 |
-3, -5.918 |
| 5 |
California |
86.568 |
3-0 |
67.579 |
+0, +0.019 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati |
86.000 |
3-0 |
64.380 |
+5, +1.800 |
| 7 |
Miami FL |
85.660 |
2-0 |
81.165 |
+19, +6.256 |
| 8 |
Houston |
85.403 |
2-0 |
63.088 |
-1, -0.715 |
| 9 |
Oklahoma |
85.209 |
2-1 |
63.494 |
-3, -1.183 |
| 10 |
Kansas |
84.235 |
3-0 |
62.075 |
+11, +3.586 |
| 11 |
Pittsburgh |
84.121 |
3-0 |
66.104 |
+2, +1.306 |
| 12 |
TCU |
83.527 |
2-0 |
63.004 |
-2, -1.240 |
| 13 |
Southern Cal |
83.501 |
2-1 |
72.848 |
-11, -7.381 |
| 14 |
Florida St |
83.429 |
2-1 |
75.078 |
+31, +8.261 |
| 15 |
Nebraska |
83.038 |
2-1 |
68.466 |
+0, +0.490 |
| 16 |
Penn State |
82.736 |
3-0 |
59.795 |
-7, -2.467 |
| 17 |
Mississippi |
82.687 |
2-0 |
59.284 |
+0, +0.320 |
| 18 |
Clemson |
82.351 |
2-1 |
72.529 |
+4, +2.169 |
| 19 |
Auburn |
82.239 |
3-0 |
67.808 |
+16, +4.622 |
| 20 |
Iowa |
82.090 |
3-0 |
73.098 |
+7, +2.916 |
| 21 |
Virginia Tech |
81.590 |
2-1 |
77.653 |
+2, +1.475 |
| 22 |
North Carolina |
81.368 |
3-0 |
67.420 |
+2, +1.781 |
| 23 |
Missouri |
81.195 |
3-0 |
63.781 |
-4, -0.957 |
| 24 |
Texas Tech |
81.062 |
2-1 |
66.569 |
-10, -1.664 |
| 25 |
Ohio State |
80.868 |
2-1 |
73.095 |
-13, -2.234 |
| 26 |
LSU |
80.812 |
3-0 |
66.525 |
+4, +2.149 |
| 27 |
Oklahoma St |
80.005 |
2-1 |
71.329 |
-7, -1.149 |
| 28 |
Oregon |
79.620 |
2-1 |
78.752 |
+0, +0.457 |
| 29 |
Connecticut |
79.467 |
2-1 |
76.272 |
+17, +4.509 |
| 30 |
Georgia Tech |
78.900 |
2-1 |
77.071 |
-1, -0.123 |
| 31 |
Utah |
78.393 |
2-1 |
69.553 |
-13, -3.863 |
| 32 |
Georgia |
78.384 |
2-1 |
76.884 |
+5, +1.026 |
| 33 |
South Carolina |
78.132 |
2-1 |
72.096 |
+3, +0.709 |
| 34 |
Arizona |
77.524 |
2-1 |
69.481 |
-9, -1.984 |
| 35 |
Navy |
76.811 |
1-2 |
77.661 |
-1, -1.144 |
| 36 |
Wisconsin |
76.463 |
3-0 |
66.693 |
+14, +3.089 |
| 37 |
Brigham Young |
76.372 |
2-1 |
74.226 |
-21, -6.024 |
| 38 |
West Virginia |
75.913 |
2-1 |
69.403 |
+2, -0.470 |
| 39 |
UCLA |
75.662 |
3-0 |
65.547 |
+9, +2.000 |
| 40 |
South Florida |
75.151 |
3-0 |
51.512 |
-2, -1.764 |
| 41 |
Notre Dame |
75.137 |
2-1 |
69.040 |
+1, -0.614 |
| 42 |
Michigan |
74.993 |
3-0 |
62.277 |
+7, +1.521 |
| 43 |
Northern Illinois |
74.824 |
2-1 |
68.787 |
+22, +4.886 |
| 44 |
Wake Forest |
74.711 |
2-1 |
65.427 |
-1, -0.765 |
| 45 |
Oregon St |
74.674 |
2-1 |
68.124 |
-6, -2.139 |
| 46 |
Baylor |
74.566 |
1-1 |
77.089 |
-13, -3.390 |
| 47 |
Arizona St |
74.495 |
2-0 |
50.618 |
+8, +2.265 |
| 48 |
Stanford |
74.416 |
2-1 |
65.635 |
+5, +1.997 |
| 49 |
Fresno St |
73.391 |
1-2 |
72.281 |
+5, +1.133 |
| 50 |
Tennessee |
73.203 |
1-2 |
70.166 |
+12, +2.291 |
| 51 |
Washington |
72.925 |
2-1 |
72.514 |
+36, +7.576 |
| 52 |
Purdue |
72.887 |
1-2 |
72.139 |
-11, -3.283 |
| 53 |
Tulsa |
72.568 |
2-1 |
67.752 |
-21, -5.699 |
| 54 |
Michigan St |
72.422 |
1-2 |
65.008 |
+6, +0.920 |
| 55 |
Boston College |
72.266 |
2-1 |
59.695 |
-24, -6.359 |
| 56 |
North Carolina St |
72.237 |
2-1 |
53.944 |
+0, +0.062 |
| 57 |
Minnesota |
72.146 |
2-1 |
73.453 |
+0, +0.159 |
| 58 |
Bowling Green |
71.830 |
1-2 |
72.912 |
-14, -3.606 |
| 59 |
Mississippi St |
71.519 |
2-1 |
63.588 |
+38, +8.742 |
| 60 |
Air Force |
71.348 |
2-1 |
58.578 |
+4, +0.951 |
| 61 |
Central Michigan |
71.232 |
2-1 |
64.620 |
+0, +0.146 |
| 62 |
Kentucky |
70.568 |
2-0 |
57.421 |
-15, -3.327 |
| 63 |
Duke |
70.564 |
1-2 |
75.040 |
-5, -1.406 |
| 64 |
Rutgers |
70.229 |
2-1 |
58.529 |
+4, +1.324 |
| 65 |
Colorado St |
70.212 |
3-0 |
63.160 |
+6, +2.203 |
| 66 |
Ohio U. |
69.882 |
2-1 |
68.161 |
+24, +5.333 |
| 67 |
Texas A&M |
69.710 |
2-0 |
56.649 |
-16, -3.452 |
| 68 |
Hawaii |
69.624 |
2-1 |
63.657 |
+4, +2.203 |
| 69 |
Arkansas |
69.515 |
1-1 |
63.640 |
-17, -3.432 |
| 70 |
Middle Tennessee St |
69.420 |
2-1 |
71.695 |
+9, +3.071 |
| 71 |
Maryland |
68.656 |
1-2 |
74.010 |
-12, -2.914 |
| 72 |
Southern Miss |
68.629 |
3-0 |
54.601 |
-5, -0.289 |
| 73 |
UNLV |
68.197 |
2-1 |
62.217 |
-7, -1.380 |
| 74 |
Louisville |
67.917 |
1-1 |
45.659 |
+42,+13.510 |
| 75 |
Marshall |
67.660 |
2-1 |
71.478 |
+28, +5.385 |
| 76 |
Buffalo |
67.531 |
1-2 |
72.208 |
-7, -1.185 |
| 77 |
Iowa St |
67.068 |
2-1 |
62.537 |
+16, +3.323 |
| 78 |
East Carolina |
67.059 |
1-2 |
73.848 |
-4, +0.112 |
| 79 |
Illinois |
66.976 |
1-1 |
63.935 |
+7, +1.483 |
| 80 |
Kansas St |
66.899 |
1-2 |
70.066 |
-10, -1.175 |
| 81 |
Troy |
66.880 |
1-2 |
74.724 |
-6, -0.053 |
| 82 |
Virginia |
66.337 |
0-3 |
73.512 |
-9, -1.024 |
| 83 |
Northwestern |
65.765 |
2-1 |
55.329 |
-3, -0.519 |
| 84 |
Central Florida |
65.553 |
2-1 |
64.534 |
+10, +1.828 |
| 85 |
Temple |
65.494 |
0-2 |
76.136 |
-4, -0.571 |
| 86 |
Syracuse |
65.442 |
1-2 |
72.549 |
-1, -0.157 |
| 87 |
Florida Int'l |
65.290 |
0-2 |
82.246 |
-5, -0.771 |
| 88 |
Vanderbilt |
65.187 |
1-2 |
63.971 |
-25, -5.392 |
| 89 |
Indiana |
65.033 |
3-0 |
57.598 |
+20, +4.369 |
| 90 |
Louisiana Tech |
64.992 |
1-2 |
69.209 |
+2, +0.928 |
| 91 |
Toledo |
64.974 |
1-2 |
72.770 |
-3, -0.125 |
| 92 |
North Texas |
64.798 |
1-2 |
73.666 |
+14, +3.558 |
| 93 |
Colorado |
64.553 |
1-2 |
64.291 |
+15, +3.685 |
| 94 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
64.463 |
2-1 |
63.405 |
-11, -1.583 |
| 95 |
Utah St |
64.289 |
0-2 |
77.051 |
-11, -1.633 |
| 96 |
Western Michigan |
64.241 |
1-2 |
64.317 |
+6, +1.937 |
| 97 |
Arkansas St |
64.143 |
1-1 |
51.606 |
-2, +0.497 |
| 98 |
UTEP |
63.950 |
1-2 |
65.865 |
+2, +1.293 |
| 99 |
Army |
62.829 |
2-1 |
61.290 |
-3, -0.264 |
| 100 |
Nevada |
62.705 |
0-2 |
75.675 |
-9, -1.548 |
| 101 |
Florida Atlantic |
62.666 |
0-2 |
83.585 |
-2, -0.036 |
| 102 |
Alabama-Birmingham |
62.445 |
1-2 |
61.570 |
-13, -2.370 |
| 103 |
Idaho |
62.229 |
2-1 |
61.432 |
+12, +5.859 |
| 104 |
San Jose St |
61.749 |
0-3 |
79.770 |
-28, -5.159 |
| 105 |
SMU |
61.632 |
2-1 |
60.714 |
-4, -0.829 |
| 106 |
Memphis |
61.078 |
1-2 |
65.023 |
+6, +1.946 |
| 107 |
Wyoming |
60.687 |
1-2 |
71.342 |
-30, -6.199 |
| 108 |
Ball St |
59.852 |
0-3 |
63.681 |
+2, -0.453 |
| 109 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
59.693 |
1-2 |
66.346 |
-11, -3.052 |
| 110 |
San Diego St |
59.540 |
1-2 |
65.172 |
-6, -2.379 |
| 111 |
Rice |
59.200 |
0-3 |
77.504 |
-4, -1.752 |
| 112 |
Akron |
57.448 |
1-2 |
61.676 |
-34, -9.227 |
| 113 |
Washington St |
57.444 |
1-2 |
66.557 |
+5, +3.427 |
| 114 |
Eastern Michigan |
56.454 |
0-3 |
68.862 |
+0, -0.646 |
| 115 |
Kent St |
55.875 |
1-2 |
60.990 |
-10, -5.655 |
| 116 |
New Mexico |
55.009 |
0-3 |
70.209 |
-5, -4.994 |
| 117 |
Tulane |
54.039 |
0-2 |
71.470 |
-4, -3.319 |
| 118 |
Western Kentucky |
50.938 |
0-3 |
70.228 |
+1, -2.267 |
| 119 |
Miami OH |
49.926 |
0-3 |
76.261 |
-2, -4.434 |
| 120 |
New Mexico St |
48.830 |
1-2 |
54.810 |
+0, -0.478 |
2009 Week 4 "Upset" Review
With the conclusion of week 4 of the college football season, the press would like us to believe there were 7 upsets in the
top-25. Let's take a look at each one to see if each was truly an
upset.
Then #4 in the polls Mississippi lost at South Carolina and while my computer didn't predict the upset, it did have Mississippi only #17 so considered the #4 rating a tad high and did pick South Carolina plus the points. Computer one up on the polls.
Then #5 in the polls Penn State lost at home to Iowa and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had then #16 Penn State by only 3.7 so it again had then #20 Iowa plus the points and got it right. Computer two up.
Then #6 in the polls Cal lost on the road, bad, to Oregon. The computer had Cal #5 so shame on it, but their performance to that point in the season gave no indication they'd lay an egg like that. But the computer thought enough of Oregon to still pick them plus the points so got it right. But call this one a push between the computer and polls.
Then #9 in the polls Miami lost on the road to then #11 in the polls Virginia Tech which probably wasn't really an upset with the game being in Virginia. But my computer still picked Miami although it again had the right side of the spread. Since the polls don't take home field advantage into account, we'll actually give this one to the polls as the computer had Miami #7 and Virginia Tech #21, a bigger gap. Computer only one up now.
Then #18 in the polls Florida State lost at home to South Florida, and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had South Florida plus the points. Since the computer had Florida State #14 probably call this a push too.
Then #22 in the polls North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and the computer did pick this upset having Georgia Tech by 0.5. Computer up two.
Then #24 in the polls Washington lost on the road to Stanford and the computer also picked this upset and had Washington no where close to the top-25 at #51. Computer up three.
So, and I am probably a bit biased but I think the data supports it, the polls are still suffering from early season bias and at least as of last week are rating certain teams higher based solely on tradition or name. Yet another reason to give computer ratings a look. Check out my computers ratings through week 4 here.
Then #4 in the polls Mississippi lost at South Carolina and while my computer didn't predict the upset, it did have Mississippi only #17 so considered the #4 rating a tad high and did pick South Carolina plus the points. Computer one up on the polls.
Then #5 in the polls Penn State lost at home to Iowa and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had then #16 Penn State by only 3.7 so it again had then #20 Iowa plus the points and got it right. Computer two up.
Then #6 in the polls Cal lost on the road, bad, to Oregon. The computer had Cal #5 so shame on it, but their performance to that point in the season gave no indication they'd lay an egg like that. But the computer thought enough of Oregon to still pick them plus the points so got it right. But call this one a push between the computer and polls.
Then #9 in the polls Miami lost on the road to then #11 in the polls Virginia Tech which probably wasn't really an upset with the game being in Virginia. But my computer still picked Miami although it again had the right side of the spread. Since the polls don't take home field advantage into account, we'll actually give this one to the polls as the computer had Miami #7 and Virginia Tech #21, a bigger gap. Computer only one up now.
Then #18 in the polls Florida State lost at home to South Florida, and again the computer didn't pick the upset but had South Florida plus the points. Since the computer had Florida State #14 probably call this a push too.
Then #22 in the polls North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and the computer did pick this upset having Georgia Tech by 0.5. Computer up two.
Then #24 in the polls Washington lost on the road to Stanford and the computer also picked this upset and had Washington no where close to the top-25 at #51. Computer up three.
So, and I am probably a bit biased but I think the data supports it, the polls are still suffering from early season bias and at least as of last week are rating certain teams higher based solely on tradition or name. Yet another reason to give computer ratings a look. Check out my computers ratings through week 4 here.
Friday, September 25, 2009
2009 Week 4 College Preview Highlights
With week 4 already started, it is time for a preview of some of the interesting games. Full picks are here.
The weekend got started last night with South Carolina upsetting Ole Miss 16-10. While my computer did not pick the outright upset, it did pick South Carolina plus the points as it did not have Mississippi rated nearly as highly as the polls (#17 vs #4).
In other games, Notre Dame visits Purdue and is favored by over a touchdown, but the computer actually picks Purdue in the upset by just under a point. Purdue was helped in their rating by Oregon upsetting Utah.
Houston hosts Texas Tech in what may be their toughest game of the season and is favored by 1 but the computer's pick is a touchdown. They'll have a chance to prove they deserve their current high rating or not.
After their less than impressive win over Tennessee last week, Florida dropped a bit in the ratings but is still favored by over 3 touchdowns against Kentucky. Due in part to last weeks closer than expected win, the computer picks Florida by under 2 touchdowns. I wouldn't want to be Kentucky this week :O.
In the Pac-10, Oregon and Cal meet in what could be an important game given USC's faltering last week and while the game is in Oregon, Cal is favored by around a touchdown. The computer has Cal about around 4 though so take Oregon and the points.
Also in the Pac-10, Washington has an opportunity to keep the momentum going visiting Stanford where they are a touchdown underdog but the computer picks Stanford by only 4.5 so again take the points.
Last, in the biggest game between ranked teams, Miami visits Virginia Tech. Consistent with the above games, the computer agrees on the favorite, but has them by fewer points, in this case picking Miami by 1.1 while the line is around 3. Miami has played only 2 games so their lower pre-season rating is still a bit of a factor so they very well could be higher rated soon.
The weekend got started last night with South Carolina upsetting Ole Miss 16-10. While my computer did not pick the outright upset, it did pick South Carolina plus the points as it did not have Mississippi rated nearly as highly as the polls (#17 vs #4).
In other games, Notre Dame visits Purdue and is favored by over a touchdown, but the computer actually picks Purdue in the upset by just under a point. Purdue was helped in their rating by Oregon upsetting Utah.
Houston hosts Texas Tech in what may be their toughest game of the season and is favored by 1 but the computer's pick is a touchdown. They'll have a chance to prove they deserve their current high rating or not.
After their less than impressive win over Tennessee last week, Florida dropped a bit in the ratings but is still favored by over 3 touchdowns against Kentucky. Due in part to last weeks closer than expected win, the computer picks Florida by under 2 touchdowns. I wouldn't want to be Kentucky this week :O.
In the Pac-10, Oregon and Cal meet in what could be an important game given USC's faltering last week and while the game is in Oregon, Cal is favored by around a touchdown. The computer has Cal about around 4 though so take Oregon and the points.
Also in the Pac-10, Washington has an opportunity to keep the momentum going visiting Stanford where they are a touchdown underdog but the computer picks Stanford by only 4.5 so again take the points.
Last, in the biggest game between ranked teams, Miami visits Virginia Tech. Consistent with the above games, the computer agrees on the favorite, but has them by fewer points, in this case picking Miami by 1.1 while the line is around 3. Miami has played only 2 games so their lower pre-season rating is still a bit of a factor so they very well could be higher rated soon.
2009 Week 3 NFL Predictions
Here are my computer's predictions for week 3 of the NFL season. These are also posted here each week for easier reference.
After 2 weeks the computer is doing fairly well going 18-13-1 against the spread and 21-11 straight up beating Vegas' 19-12 straight up.
The computer is picking 1 upsets this week, Seattle over Chicago. It picked and nailed 2 upsets last week (Jets over New England and Baltimore over San Diego), but this one may be farther fetched as the computer cannot take into account Seattle's injuries.
It is interesting to see Indianapolis as a road dog to Arizona, but my computer agrees. However, I've saw a line of +3 which would still make the pick Indy and the points if you can get it. The line may have dipped to +1 or +2 since then.
Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.
After 2 weeks the computer is doing fairly well going 18-13-1 against the spread and 21-11 straight up beating Vegas' 19-12 straight up.
The computer is picking 1 upsets this week, Seattle over Chicago. It picked and nailed 2 upsets last week (Jets over New England and Baltimore over San Diego), but this one may be farther fetched as the computer cannot take into account Seattle's injuries.
It is interesting to see Indianapolis as a road dog to Arizona, but my computer agrees. However, I've saw a line of +3 which would still make the pick Indy and the points if you can get it. The line may have dipped to +1 or +2 since then.
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
| NY Jets | 8.5 | Tennessee |
| Washington | 3.5 | Detroit |
| New England | 0.0 | Atlanta |
| Baltimore | 18.5 | Cleveland |
| Minnesota | 2.9 | San Francisco |
| San Diego | 8.6 | Miami |
| Philadelphia | 15.5 | Kansas City |
| NY Giants | 8.6 | Tampa Bay |
| Houston | 5.1 | Jacksonville |
| Dallas | 10.3 | Carolina |
| Seattle | 2.7 | Chicago |
| Pittsburgh | 3.0 | Cincinnati |
| Denver | 2.4 | Oakland |
| Green Bay | 5.5 | St Louis |
| Arizona | 2.6 | Indianapolis |
| New Orleans | 4.9 | Buffalo |
Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
2009 Week 4 College Football Predictions
qHere are my computer's predictions for week 4 of the college
football season. These also appear, and the current predictions always
will, at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-predictions. And see http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-prediction-performance for the historical performance of the picks.
These predictions are based on the week 3 ratings so there are 3 games for many teams so they should be getting a little more accurate. With some of the upsets and results last week though, some teams may be out to prove something. A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later today.
Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.
These predictions are based on the week 3 ratings so there are 3 games for many teams so they should be getting a little more accurate. With some of the upsets and results last week though, some teams may be out to prove something. A blog post with commentary on the interesting games should come later today.
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Favorite | Margin | Underdog |
| Texas | 26.3 | UTEP |
| Syracuse | 14.4 | Maine |
| Southern Cal | 29.1 | Washington St |
| Tennessee | 6.3 | Ohio U. |
| Auburn | 25.4 | Ball St |
| East Carolina | 4.5 | Central Florida |
| Michigan | 13.0 | Indiana |
| Oklahoma St | 27.1 | Grambling St |
| Connecticut | 30.5 | Rhode Island |
| LSU | 6.3 | Mississippi St |
| Penn State | 3.7 | Iowa |
| Pittsburgh | 8.9 | North Carolina St |
| Purdue | 0.7 | Notre Dame |
| Minnesota | 3.4 | Northwestern |
| Baylor | 31.4 | Northwestern St |
| Western Michigan | 11.7 | Hofstra |
| Brigham Young | 9.2 | Colorado St |
| Houston | 7.3 | Texas Tech |
| Utah St | 12.7 | Southern Utah |
| Missouri | 15.5 | Nevada |
| Tulsa | 25.4 | Sam Houston St |
| Middle Tennessee St | 1.6 | North Texas |
| Florida | 13.3 | Kentucky |
| Marshall | 3.6 | Memphis |
| Iowa St | 7.2 | Army |
| Nebraska | 21.6 | Louisiana-Lafayette |
| Florida Int'l | 3.3 | Toledo |
| Alabama | 21.7 | Arkansas |
| Kansas St | 27.4 | Tennessee Tech |
| Boise St | 13.1 | Bowling Green |
| Maryland | 1.4 | Rutgers |
| Oregon St | 0.2 | Arizona |
| Georgia | 6.9 | Arizona St |
| Wisconsin | 7.0 | Michigan St |
| Kansas | 18.6 | Southern Miss |
| Texas A&M | 10.3 | Alabama-Birmingham |
| Vanderbilt | 3.0 | Rice |
| San Jose St | 1.5 | Cal Poly SLO |
| Temple | 1.0 | Buffalo |
| California | 3.9 | Oregon |
| Florida St | 11.3 | South Florida |
| Stanford | 4.5 | Washington |
| Boston College | 0.6 | Wake Forest |
| Georgia Tech | 0.5 | North Carolina |
| Ohio State | 16.9 | Illinois |
| Kent St | 8.9 | Miami OH |
| Mississippi | 1.6 | South Carolina |
| Utah | 13.5 | Louisville |
| McNeese St | 2.6 | Tulane |
| Miami FL | 1.1 | Virginia Tech |
| Northern Illinois | 15.6 | Idaho |
| Florida Atlantic | 6.0 | Louisiana-Monroe |
| Clemson | 1.8 | TCU |
| Navy | 28.9 | Western Kentucky |
| Arkansas St | 0.3 | Troy |
| Air Force | 14.8 | San Diego St |
| Cincinnati | 15.6 | Fresno St |
| Duke | 37.6 | North Carolina Central |
| Central Michigan | 16.8 | Akron |
| New Mexico | 9.2 | New Mexico St |
Updated 9/30: Corrected transcription errors.
Monday, September 21, 2009
2009 Week 2 NFL Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 2
of the NFL season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.
Even though they are ranked #1, Baltimore is projected to have the best record at 14-2. This is because they presently have the 2nd easiest schedule in all of the NFL and 4th easiest the rest of the year. It is nice to get Cleveland and Cincinnati twice and Detroit and Oakland once each. The #1 team, New Orleans, is only projected to finish 12-4. Their schedule on average isn't a whole lot harder, but they don't have the gimme's Baltimore does. The big surprise is San Francisco projected to be 12-4 along with New England only 8-8.
If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners Baltimore, New York Jets, San Diego, and Indy with wildcards Pittsburgh and Denver. The NFC would have New York Giants, Minnesota, San Francisco, and New Orleans along with wildcards being 2 of Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Even though they are ranked #1, Baltimore is projected to have the best record at 14-2. This is because they presently have the 2nd easiest schedule in all of the NFL and 4th easiest the rest of the year. It is nice to get Cleveland and Cincinnati twice and Detroit and Oakland once each. The #1 team, New Orleans, is only projected to finish 12-4. Their schedule on average isn't a whole lot harder, but they don't have the gimme's Baltimore does. The big surprise is San Francisco projected to be 12-4 along with New England only 8-8.
If these projections came true, the AFC would be represented by division winners Baltimore, New York Jets, San Diego, and Indy with wildcards Pittsburgh and Denver. The NFC would have New York Giants, Minnesota, San Francisco, and New Orleans along with wildcards being 2 of Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Baltimore | 14-2 | 31.9 | 22.3 | 24.4 |
| NY Giants | 13-3 | 28.6 | 16.1 | 28.1 |
| NY Jets | 13-3 | 28.0 | 24.9 | 19.6 |
| Minnesota | 12-4 | 25.0 | 22.8 | 18.8 |
| San Francisco | 12-4 | 24.2 | 17.9 | 22.4 |
| New Orleans | 12-4 | 23.2 | 23.1 | 16.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 25.1 | 18.9 | 22.3 |
| San Diego | 10-6 | 28.4 | 19.1 | 25.1 |
| Dallas | 10-6 | 27.2 | 25.2 | 18.3 |
| Atlanta | 10-6 | 24.1 | 18.3 | 22.0 |
| Indianapolis | 10-6 | 23.2 | 16.7 | 22.6 |
| Denver | 10-6 | 22.5 | 17.7 | 20.8 |
| Philadelphia | 10-6 | 21.9 | 16.7 | 20.9 |
| Arizona | 9-7 | 24.5 | 21.9 | 18.9 |
| Buffalo | 9-7 | 22.8 | 17.2 | 21.6 |
| Tennessee | 8-8 | 24.9 | 18.8 | 22.3 |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 23.7 | 18.9 | 21.0 |
| New England | 8-8 | 23.2 | 22.0 | 17.2 |
| Seattle | 8-8 | 22.0 | 18.6 | 19.3 |
| Cincinnati | 7-9 | 28.8 | 17.0 | 27.6 |
| Green Bay | 7-9 | 23.6 | 20.3 | 19.4 |
| Houston | 7-9 | 22.7 | 21.4 | 17.3 |
| Washington | 6-10 | 28.9 | 21.2 | 23.7 |
| Oakland | 5-11 | 27.9 | 24.7 | 19.0 |
| Jacksonville | 5-11 | 25.6 | 22.8 | 18.9 |
| Carolina | 5-11 | 23.5 | 17.8 | 22.0 |
| Miami | 4-12 | 24.7 | 22.1 | 18.7 |
| Tampa Bay | 3-13 | 26.0 | 22.2 | 20.0 |
| Cleveland | 3-13 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 16.9 |
| St Louis | 3-13 | 24.5 | 22.5 | 18.0 |
| Kansas City | 2-14 | 33.6 | 21.6 | 26.8 |
| Detroit | 2-14 | 29.4 | 28.9 | 15.1 |
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