Sunday, October 18, 2009

Thoughts On The First BCS Rankings

The first BCS rankings came out today and naturally the first thing I did was compare them with my computer's rankings.

First, just looking at the BCS rankings themselves the top-5 isn't terribly out of whack with the same teams in both the BCS and my computer's top-5, just in a different order.  After that, there is not nearly as much agreement.  See below for a full table.

Overrated

My computer says Iowa is way overrated at #6 in the BCS as the computer has them #12.  LSU is also overrated at #9 being #16 in the computer.  Penn State too is overrated at #13, the computer having them #23.  The largest overrating however is Oklahoma State at #15 when the computer says they are #40.  Yes they are 5-1, but they haven't played anyone ranked above #39 (Houston) and haven't beaten anyone above #46 (Georgia).  BYU is nearly as bad at #16 while the computer has them #33.  And Houston is also nearly as bad as Oklahoma State at #17 while the computer has them #39.  Also Ohio State at #19 while the computer has them #24.  Going farther down the list just reveals more "mistakes".

Is my computer way off on these?  Comparing with the BCS computers, there is some agreement on the overrated teams (Penn State a bit, Oklahoma State and BYU yes, and Ohio State more so than my computer!) but not all.  What do you think, does Iowa, LSU, and the others above pass the smell test?

Underrated

So who has been hurt by the overrated teams above?  Virginia Tech is underrated at #14 in the BCS, the computer having them at #7.  The computer still likes Oklahoma (#11) while the BCS doesn't have them ranked.  With 3 losses you'd think they'd be lower but when they are by a total of 5 points to teams with a combined 17-2 record, you can't knock them too much.

What do you think?  The current poll as I write this is for the most overrated in the BCS so vote.

Team BCS Schmidt BCS Computers
Florida 1 3 1
Alabama 2 1 2
Texas 3 5 6
Boise State 4 4 5
Cincinnati 5 2 4
Iowa 6 12 3
USC 7 8 11
TCU 8 9 8
LSU 9 16 7
Miami-Florida 10 14 13
Oregon 11 10 9
Georgia Tech 12 15 10
Penn State 13 23 17
Virginia Tech 14 7 12
Oklahoma State 15 40 21
BYU 16 33 25
Houston 17 39 18
Utah 18 22 14
Ohio State 19 24 32
Pittsburgh 20 35 20
Wisconsin 21 49 14
Arizona 22 17 14
West Virginia 23 36 24
South Carolina 24 31 22
Kansas 25 38 33