Sunday, October 18, 2009

2009 Week 7 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 7 (games played thru 17-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

After several upsets, closer than expected games, and a few blowouts, there are a bunch of changes in this week rankings.

Boise State started things with a much closer than expected win (7 points) over then #65 Tulsa that dropped them over 3 ratings points and 2 spots to #4.  That left room for a new #2 and even before the weekend games Cincinnati made their case with a solid 17 point win on the road against formerly unbeaten and then #10 South Florida.  Florida had a golden opportunity to get to #2 by playing a second tough opponent after an easy schedule, but nearly lost and did not impress winning by only 3 at home and only moved to #3 while actually losing ratings points.

Texas also had a good opportunity to move up and coupled with some of the other surprises and and their 3 point win over OU did gain over 5 ratings points and move up to #5 but did luck out with Bradford getting hurt and missed out on moving up more due to such a narrow win over a now 3 loss team.  Helping Texas improve that many points was prior opponent Texas Tech taking it to Nebraska which jumped them an unbelievable 11 points and 36 spots.  They were helped by Texas winning and prior opponent Houston also winning big.

Iowa continues to win as underdogs and is up to #12 while fellow unbeaten and former #12 TCU moves up 3 to #9.  The aforementioned South Florida dropped over 4 points and 9 spots to #19 while another upset loss, this one by Ohio State, dropped them all the way to #24.  Ohio State's loss was also the big reason why USC did not improve and in fact dropped them 2 spots to #8.  Of course, USC didn't help themselves by letting Notre Dame come back from 20 down in the 4th to nearly take it to overtime.

With 7 undefeated teams left, it appears Florida and Alabama may be destined to face each other that way and Cincinnati, Texas, and Boise State are poised to make their case, but others vying to stay that way continues to include TCU and Iowa as Kansas, never really ranked highly by the computer, finally fell this week.  Check out the season projections to see how the teams should end up.

With all the upsets and strange games with teams not playing as expected, my computer did not have a good week predicting games.  The record against the spread was 26-27-2 and it went 40-15 picking winners.  Best picks were a disappointing 4-5 and even the locks missed a game for the first time going 2-2.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
95.193
7-0
73.413
+0, -1.095
2
Cincinnati
90.509
6-0
68.377
+5, +3.669
3
Florida
90.304
6-0
70.365
+1, -2.241
4
Boise St
89.476
6-0
70.245
-2, -3.365
5
Texas
89.463
6-0
71.034
+6, +5.200
6
Texas Tech
87.946
5-2
67.052
+35,+11.068
7
Virginia Tech
87.155
5-2
79.065
-2, -3.906
8
Southern Cal
86.448
5-1
73.770
-2, -0.764
9
TCU
85.959
6-0
69.379
+3, +2.130
10
Oregon
85.908
5-1
74.613
-2, -0.901
11
Oklahoma
84.862
3-3
70.091
-2, -0.460
12
Iowa
83.819
7-0
74.474
+3, +0.857
13
Nebraska
83.172
4-2
72.409
-10, -9.454
14
Miami FL
82.828
5-1
74.940
+0, -0.323
15
Georgia Tech
82.583
6-1
76.227
+4, +2.273
16
LSU
81.114
5-1
72.744
+0, +0.342
17
Arizona
80.820
4-2
76.177
+1, +0.478
18
Arkansas
80.678
3-3
77.076
+4, +1.491
19
South Florida
80.241
5-1
61.069
-9, -4.355
20
Clemson
80.184
3-3
72.945
+8, +2.057
21
California
80.041
4-2
73.825
+9, +2.142
22
Utah
79.624
5-1
69.503
-5, -0.856
23
Penn State
79.200
6-1
63.667
+9, +1.711
24
Ohio State
79.096
5-2
70.065
-11, -4.383
25
Oregon St
79.045
4-2
71.186
+8, +1.685
26
Fresno St
78.738
3-3
73.576
-2, -0.190
27
Stanford
78.301
4-3
72.742
-4, -0.739
28
Notre Dame
77.933
4-2
74.350
-1, -0.353
29
Tennessee
77.909
3-3
71.009
-4, -0.490
30
Mississippi
77.809
4-2
67.992
+9, +0.916
31
South Carolina
77.767
5-2
73.307
+12, +2.453
32
Kentucky
77.649
3-3
76.703
+19, +4.016
33
Brigham Young
77.583
6-1
68.211
-4, -0.379
34
Auburn
77.548
5-2
70.678
-8, -0.765
35
Pittsburgh
77.534
6-1
67.438
-4, -0.278
36
West Virginia
76.643
5-1
66.295
+11, +2.043
37
Florida St
76.636
2-4
76.635
+1, -0.267
38
Kansas
76.577
5-1
64.526
-18, -3.665
39
Houston
76.547
5-1
67.351
+24, +4.671
40
Oklahoma St
76.465
5-1
63.479
+12, +3.163
41
Michigan
76.419
5-2
65.470
-4, -0.498
42
Central Michigan
76.208
6-1
63.575
+2, +0.932
43
Connecticut
75.978
4-2
67.006
-3, -0.901
44
Washington
75.977
3-4
78.295
-8, -0.980
45
Boston College
75.338
5-2
67.766
+4, +1.251
46
Georgia
75.309
4-3
76.097
+9, +2.214
47
Arizona St
75.102
4-2
64.217
+17, +3.885
48
UCLA
74.988
3-3
75.267
-13, -2.131
49
Wisconsin
74.917
5-2
71.259
-15, -2.319
50
Michigan St
74.615
4-3
69.611
-8, -1.157
51
Virginia
74.226
3-3
71.405
+6, +1.633
52
Northern Illinois
73.283
3-3
67.024
-6, -1.337
53
Iowa St
73.207
4-3
66.691
+13, +2.272
54
Missouri
73.089
4-2
68.291
-33, -6.364
55
Navy
72.600
5-2
65.583
-5, -1.121
56
Minnesota
72.514
4-3
72.058
-2, -0.638
57
Air Force
72.443
4-3
63.471
-4, -0.764
58
Duke
71.900
3-3
66.288
-10, -2.620
59
Tulsa
71.892
4-2
63.677
+6, +0.942
60
Wake Forest
71.793
4-3
69.548
-15, -3.351
61
Ohio U.
71.454
5-2
65.798
-2, -1.055
62
Mississippi St
71.407
3-4
68.264
+15, +3.854
63
Idaho
71.350
6-1
66.635
-3, -1.004
64
North Carolina
71.148
4-2
65.523
+3, +0.351
65
Rutgers
70.945
4-2
58.661
-4, -1.373
66
Kansas St
70.777
4-3
68.755
+16, +4.956
67
Purdue
70.733
2-5
72.930
+9, +3.029
68
Colorado St
70.453
3-4
73.893
+0, -0.292
69
Troy
70.159
4-2
69.705
-13, -2.699
70
Baylor
69.301
3-3
68.057
-8, -2.912
71
Bowling Green
68.849
3-4
70.371
-2, -1.583
72
Marshall
68.439
4-3
69.776
-1, -0.912
73
Colorado
68.175
2-4
73.620
+19, +4.069
74
Nevada
67.911
3-3
68.178
-2, -1.189
75
Southern Miss
67.698
4-3
63.934
+4, +1.215
76
Temple
67.600
4-2
62.518
+2, +0.533
77
Arkansas St
67.272
1-4
67.192
-19, -5.295
78
Western Michigan
67.234
3-4
67.679
-3, -0.495
79
North Carolina St
66.842
3-4
65.479
-9, -2.870
80
Louisiana-Monroe
66.679
4-2
65.604
+21, +4.902
81
Indiana
66.395
4-3
66.424
+0, +0.358
82
SMU
66.347
3-3
68.359
+2, +0.834
83
Louisville
66.342
2-4
67.356
+0, +0.696
84
Texas A&M
66.165
3-3
65.271
-11, -2.833
85
Northwestern
65.680
4-3
62.058
+3, +0.640
86
East Carolina
65.619
4-3
64.946
+1, +0.493
87
Toledo
65.097
4-3
67.598
+12, +2.269
88
San Jose St
64.757
1-5
75.970
-8, -1.531
89
San Diego St
64.667
2-4
68.091
-4, -0.811
90
Syracuse
64.394
2-4
69.394
+0, +0.057
91
Middle Tennessee St
64.390
3-3
68.212
-17, -3.599
92
Central Florida
64.348
3-3
63.596
-3, -0.108
93
UTEP
64.052
2-4
69.326
-2, -0.075
94
Louisiana Tech
64.037
3-3
62.054
+3, +0.854
95
Maryland
63.607
2-5
70.785
-9, -1.644
96
Wyoming
63.489
4-3
66.021
+9, +2.557
97
Louisiana-Lafayette
62.824
4-2
64.560
-1, -0.466
98
Buffalo
62.521
3-4
64.830
+0, -0.646
99
Utah St
62.420
1-5
68.244
-6, -1.247
100
Alabama-Birmingham
62.174
2-4
66.059
-6, -1.468
101
Florida Atlantic
62.167
1-4
70.739
+9, +4.496
102
Hawaii
61.778
2-4
66.219
+0, +0.406
103
Kent St
61.563
3-4
62.562
+3, +1.219
104
UNLV
61.139
2-5
67.072
+0, +0.011
105
Vanderbilt
60.641
2-5
64.334
-2, -0.565
106
Illinois
60.267
1-5
69.937
-11, -3.226
107
North Texas
59.590
1-5
68.575
-7, -2.735
108
Florida Int'l
59.243
1-5
70.421
+6, +2.588
109
Washington St
58.816
1-5
75.147
+2, +1.167
110
Memphis
58.323
2-5
64.006
-3, -1.543
111
Army
58.322
3-4
61.931
-3, -1.330
112
Akron
57.836
1-5
66.394
+0, +0.615
113
Tulane
57.299
2-4
66.322
-4, -0.486
114
Miami OH
56.065
0-7
76.509
+1, +0.948
115
Ball St
55.421
0-7
66.127
-2, -1.284
116
New Mexico St
52.528
3-4
60.488
+0, -2.019
117
Eastern Michigan
50.451
0-6
67.632
+0, -3.157
118
Western Kentucky
48.451
0-6
67.842
+2, +4.239
119
Rice
48.174
0-7
71.477
-1, -1.983
120
New Mexico
48.110
0-6
69.077
-1, -1.251