Thursday, October 8, 2009

2009 Week 4 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 4 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans off their 4th impressive win stays in the top spot on the projected record list and is now projected to go undefeated.  The other undefeated teams have a 4.6% (Minnesota), 3.7% (Denver), 2.1% (Indianapolis), and virtually 0% (NY Giants) chance of finishing that way.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
56.5
0.0
34.4
Minnesota
14-2
28.7
17.6
26.5
Denver
14-2
31.9
17.5
28.7
Indianapolis
13-3
26.8
21.5
21.7
NY Jets
12-4
28.7
27.4
18.0
San Francisco
12-4
25.8
17.4
24.4
NY Giants
11-5
30.2
29.9
16.5
Baltimore
11-5
23.7
16.5
23.2
New England
10-6
27.0
24.2
19.1
Cincinnati
10-6
28.5
21.7
22.6
Philadelphia
10-6
24.2
21.5
19.0
Dallas
9-7
29.0
28.3
16.9
Chicago
9-7
24.1
23.6
16.7
Pittsburgh
9-7
26.4
23.4
19.4
Jacksonville
9-7
25.9
19.4
22.7
Arizona
9-7
24.6
19.2
21.6
San Diego
8-8
26.7
25.3
17.6
Green Bay
8-8
24.8
22.9
18.2
Atlanta
8-8
26.7
21.0
21.8
Houston
7-9
24.3
17.4
23.3
Seattle
6-10
25.3
22.6
18.9
Miami
6-10
24.4
21.1
19.6
Buffalo
6-10
24.1
20.7
19.7
Detroit
4-12
27.9
25.0
18.6
Washington
4-12
37.1
23.8
25.3
Tennessee
4-12
26.2
22.4
20.0
Oakland
4-12
30.1
20.9
24.9
Cleveland
4-12
24.9
18.4
23.0
Carolina
3-13
29.4
26.4
18.5
Kansas City
2-14
33.1
20.6
27.8
St Louis
2-14
30.6
18.9
28.7
Tampa Bay
1-15
32.5
32.1
12.6