Friday, October 16, 2009

2009 Week 7 College Football Preview

Week 7 has already started and while the computer has stunk it up already going 0-3 against the spread, I'm hopefully that is just an aberration and the trend of the past few weeks (32-26-1, 29-19-1, 31-22-2 and 4-0 over the 3 weeks on locks) will continue.

While the overall picks did well and the 1 lock of the week came through, the games I highlighted weren't so good going 1-4.  I'm not sure that's an omen though as the highlighted  picks were nearly perfect the week before.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.

The computer has really liked Nebraska this year due to their 1 loss being on the road by 1 point to a team with 1 loss that being to the far and away #1 team.  But they will perhaps be tested this week with Texas Tech coming to town.  Vegas picks Nebraska by 6.5 but the computer likes them by 18.7 which seems like a lot.  Either they prove the computer right, or their ranking could drop a bit next week even with a win.

Iowa takes their high wire act to Wisconsin this week where they are 3 point underdogs but the computer likes them by 2.7.  After getting as high as #5 in the rankings 2 weeks ago they've dropped to #15 after close wins over not so great teams, and while Wisconsin may not be great they are 5-1 and the game is in Madison.

In a game between my computer's #5 and #19, with both being 5-1, and with "Tech" in both teams names how could a techie like me not look at it, Virginia Tech visits Georgia Tech.  Vegas as Virginia Tech by 3 but the computer likes them by 7.8.  Given the linkages, the outcome of this game and the Nebraska game could have a big impact on next weeks rankings.

In another battle of 1-loss teams, USC visits Notre Dame and is favored by 11 but the computer likes them by only 5.9.  This game will ultimately depend on which USC team shows up as they are one of the more up and down teams this year.

And in one of the more anticipated games of the weekend, even if Oklahoma has 2 losses, they face Texas in Dallas.  Vegas likes Texas by 4, but the computer is not impressed with their schedule to date and picks Oklahoma by 1.1.  One could argue that had Oklahoma had Bradford they wouldn't have 2 losses so there is a good chance this one is closer than the spread.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.