Monday, October 26, 2009

2009 Week 7 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 7 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans is once again projected to finish undefeated at 45% but a 1 loss season is close behind at 41%.  Denver is close behind but still has a 13% chance of staying unblemished.  Interestingly Indianapolis is projected to have 2 losses but does have a 5% chance of finishing with 16 wins.  This is in large part due to having to play New England and go to Baltimore in addition to playing Denver.  Denver also goes to Baltimore but already beat New England.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and the Jets.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, one of Dallas or the Giants, along with wildcards being 2 of Atlanta, Giants/Dallas, and Green Bay.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
45.2
0.0
40.5
Denver
15-1
40.1
13.0
33.5
Indianapolis
14-2
28.6
18.6
25.5
Minnesota
12-4
29.3
19.6
25.4
Arizona
12-4
30.0
18.6
26.6
Cincinnati
11-5
29.6
21.7
23.7
Atlanta
10-6
30.7
27.4
18.7
Dallas
10-6
29.5
27.1
18.6
Pittsburgh
10-6
29.1
26.0
19.2
NY Giants
10-6
29.8
24.0
21.6
New England
10-6
28.1
23.5
20.8
Green Bay
10-6
27.0
21.2
22.1
NY Jets
10-6
29.1
17.8
26.9
San Diego
9-7
29.3
20.1
25.0
San Francisco
9-7
26.2
18.4
24.0
Baltimore
9-7
25.6
16.9
25.1
Houston
8-8
27.5
25.4
18.3
Chicago
8-8
25.0
24.7
16.7
Philadelphia
8-8
27.2
23.3
20.1
Miami
8-8
26.2
18.8
23.7
Jacksonville
8-8
24.8
16.9
24.3
Buffalo
7-9
27.1
21.1
22.3
Seattle
7-9
26.8
20.3
22.8
Oakland
5-11
31.4
21.5
25.2
Cleveland
5-11
26.2
16.7
26.2
Tennessee
4-12
25.8
17.9
24.5
Carolina
3-13
41.8
36.3
6.1
Detroit
3-13
31.8
26.6
19.5
Washington
2-14
56.5
35.2
0.0
Kansas City
2-14
33.1
32.5
13.2
St Louis
2-14
32.2
20.9
27.1
Tampa Bay
0-16
53.5
35.5
0.0