New Orleans is once again projected to finish undefeated at 45% but a 1 loss season is close behind at 41%. Denver is close behind but still has a 13% chance of staying unblemished. Interestingly Indianapolis is projected to have 2 losses but does have a 5% chance of finishing with 16 wins. This is in large part due to having to play New England and go to Baltimore in addition to playing Denver. Denver also goes to Baltimore but already beat New England.
If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and the Jets. The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, one of Dallas or the Giants, along with wildcards being 2 of Atlanta, Giants/Dallas, and Green Bay.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| New Orleans | 16-0 | 45.2 | 0.0 | 40.5 |
| Denver | 15-1 | 40.1 | 13.0 | 33.5 |
| Indianapolis | 14-2 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 25.5 |
| Minnesota | 12-4 | 29.3 | 19.6 | 25.4 |
| Arizona | 12-4 | 30.0 | 18.6 | 26.6 |
| Cincinnati | 11-5 | 29.6 | 21.7 | 23.7 |
| Atlanta | 10-6 | 30.7 | 27.4 | 18.7 |
| Dallas | 10-6 | 29.5 | 27.1 | 18.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 29.1 | 26.0 | 19.2 |
| NY Giants | 10-6 | 29.8 | 24.0 | 21.6 |
| New England | 10-6 | 28.1 | 23.5 | 20.8 |
| Green Bay | 10-6 | 27.0 | 21.2 | 22.1 |
| NY Jets | 10-6 | 29.1 | 17.8 | 26.9 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 29.3 | 20.1 | 25.0 |
| San Francisco | 9-7 | 26.2 | 18.4 | 24.0 |
| Baltimore | 9-7 | 25.6 | 16.9 | 25.1 |
| Houston | 8-8 | 27.5 | 25.4 | 18.3 |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 16.7 |
| Philadelphia | 8-8 | 27.2 | 23.3 | 20.1 |
| Miami | 8-8 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 23.7 |
| Jacksonville | 8-8 | 24.8 | 16.9 | 24.3 |
| Buffalo | 7-9 | 27.1 | 21.1 | 22.3 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 26.8 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| Oakland | 5-11 | 31.4 | 21.5 | 25.2 |
| Cleveland | 5-11 | 26.2 | 16.7 | 26.2 |
| Tennessee | 4-12 | 25.8 | 17.9 | 24.5 |
| Carolina | 3-13 | 41.8 | 36.3 | 6.1 |
| Detroit | 3-13 | 31.8 | 26.6 | 19.5 |
| Washington | 2-14 | 56.5 | 35.2 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 2-14 | 33.1 | 32.5 | 13.2 |
| St Louis | 2-14 | 32.2 | 20.9 | 27.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-16 | 53.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 |
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