Monday, October 19, 2009

2009 Week 6 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 6 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans remains projected to have 1 loss and now has a 26% chance of going undefeated.  Indy and Denver also remain projected at 14-2.  Minnesota, while currently undefeated, is projected to end up at 13-3.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, New England, and one of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and one of the  NY Jets or Baltimore.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Giants, Arizona, Atlanta, and one of Chicago or San Francisco.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
15-1
41.6
26.0
24.8
Denver
14-2
36.9
34.1
16.5
Indianapolis
14-2
30.0
21.9
23.8
Minnesota
13-3
29.2
22.5
22.6
Atlanta
12-4
29.3
18.0
26.9
NY Giants
11-5
27.9
20.8
23.2
Arizona
11-5
26.0
16.0
25.9
New England
10-6
27.2
23.9
19.7
Cincinnati
10-6
29.6
22.9
22.5
Chicago
10-6
25.8
17.4
24.6
Pittsburgh
10-6
26.6
16.7
26.0
San Francisco
10-6
24.5
16.6
24.0
NY Jets
9-7
28.9
24.7
20.3
Dallas
9-7
29.2
23.7
21.3
Green Bay
9-7
25.4
22.8
19.0
Baltimore
9-7
26.1
18.7
23.7
San Diego
8-8
27.4
25.3
18.4
Philadelphia
8-8
26.0
23.1
19.1
Miami
8-8
25.5
21.3
20.5
Houston
8-8
25.4
16.6
25.3
Jacksonville
7-9
25.0
24.3
17.0
Seattle
7-9
26.9
21.6
21.6
Buffalo
6-10
25.7
23.5
18.5
Oakland
5-11
28.7
25.5
18.7
Cleveland
5-11
26.5
21.2
21.6
Carolina
4-12
37.6
24.8
24.3
Tennessee
4-12
25.8
17.8
24.7
Detroit
3-13
33.1
25.7
21.3
Kansas City
3-13
33.0
21.2
27.1
Washington
2-14
49.1
38.2
0.0
St Louis
2-14
31.9
20.2
27.9
Tampa Bay
0-16
56.3
34.1
0.0