Sunday, October 11, 2009

2009 Week 6 College Footbal Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 6 (games played thru 10-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Alabama and Boise St remain #1 and #2 but Boise St was nearly overtaken for #2 by Nebraska who actually jumped over Florida for #3.  Oregon, Oklahoma, and South Florida move into the top-10 at the expense of Texas, TCU, and Iowa.

Why the moves?  Yes, Nebraska has a loss, but it was by only 2 on the road to a team whose only loss was to the far and away #1.  And they were helped by their convincing win over formerly undefeated Missouri this week and Virginia Tech rolling over BC.  Florida is hurt a bit by their close win at home against a 3-loss Tennessee.

Texas hasn't had a convincing win over a really good team yet and was hurt by prior opponent UTEP losing to 4-loss Memphis.  TCU's narrow win over a 3-loss Air Force didn't convince, and while Iowa won, it was by only 2 at home.

We are now down to 9 undefeated teams, losing Auburn, LSU, Missouri, and Wisconsin this week.  Of these 9, 4 are projected to finish undefeated.  Check out the season projections for the details.

My computer continues the good performance with a 3rd straight good week going 31-22-2 against the spread and 42-13 picking winners.  It was disappointing to see the best picks go 3-4 but the 1 game that met the "lock" criteria (Colorado +32.5 over Texas) was a winner and in fact the computer predicted a 24.1 Texas win and it was 24.  Not bad!  Picks meeting the criteria are now 4-0 this year.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
96.288
6-0
72.792
+0, +3.918
2
Boise St
92.841
5-0
69.827
+0, +1.486
3
Nebraska
92.626
4-1
72.208
+1, +4.946
4
Florida
92.545
5-0
68.506
-1, +3.102
5
Virginia Tech
91.061
5-1
80.170
+0, +4.046
6
Southern Cal
87.212
4-1
73.054
+0, +0.242
7
Cincinnati
86.840
5-0
65.115
+0, +0.851
8
Oregon
86.809
5-1
74.615
+4, +2.017
9
Oklahoma
85.322
3-2
67.676
+4, +0.832
10
South Florida
84.596
5-0
55.153
+1, -0.424
11
Texas
84.263
5-0
63.764
-1, -1.040
12
TCU
83.829
5-0
68.954
-3, -1.506
13
Ohio State
83.479
5-1
70.255
+2, +0.761
14
Miami FL
83.151
4-1
77.460
+3, +0.636
15
Iowa
82.962
6-0
75.227
-7, -2.408
16
LSU
80.772
5-1
72.441
+0, -1.780
17
Utah
80.480
4-1
71.231
+4, -0.503
18
Arizona
80.342
3-2
75.748
+2, -0.690
19
Georgia Tech
80.310
5-1
73.977
+4, -0.013
20
Kansas
80.242
5-0
62.777
-1, -1.677
21
Missouri
79.453
4-1
69.940
+5, -0.023
22
Arkansas
79.187
3-2
74.597
+25, +4.353
23
Stanford
79.040
4-2
71.753
-5, -3.429
24
Fresno St
78.928
2-3
76.428
+11, +1.105
25
Tennessee
78.399
3-3
70.966
+12, +1.023
26
Auburn
78.313
5-1
68.938
-12, -5.686
27
Notre Dame
78.286
4-1
72.690
+9, +0.716
28
Clemson
78.127
2-3
73.693
-1, -1.268
29
Brigham Young
77.962
5-1
68.758
+5, +0.118
30
California
77.899
3-2
73.616
+1, -0.315
31
Pittsburgh
77.812
5-1
67.292
-9, -2.912
32
Penn State
77.489
5-1
62.914
-8, -2.360
33
Oregon St
77.360
4-2
70.144
+13, +2.413
34
Wisconsin
77.236
5-1
71.232
-5, -1.325
35
UCLA
77.119
3-2
74.510
-10, -2.415
36
Washington
76.957
3-3
78.668
+4, +0.641
37
Michigan
76.917
4-2
69.732
+12, +2.537
38
Florida St
76.903
2-4
76.906
-10, -1.792
39
Mississippi
76.893
3-2
69.565
-6, -1.038
40
Connecticut
76.879
3-2
68.873
-2, -0.262
41
Texas Tech
76.878
4-2
62.039
+7, +2.268
42
Michigan St
75.772
3-3
71.515
+1, +0.017
43
South Carolina
75.314
5-1
67.244
-11, -2.825
44
Central Michigan
75.276
5-1
61.679
+0, -0.190
45
Wake Forest
75.144
4-2
68.957
-15, -3.078
46
Northern Illinois
74.620
3-2
66.880
+4, +0.270
47
West Virginia
74.600
4-1
64.969
+4, +0.486
48
Duke
74.520
3-3
68.275
+27, +5.269
49
Boston College
74.087
4-2
69.597
-8, -2.054
50
Navy
73.721
4-2
65.342
-8, -2.190
51
Kentucky
73.633
2-3
75.782
+15, +3.344
52
Oklahoma St
73.302
4-1
62.158
+4, +0.799
53
Air Force
73.207
3-3
64.061
+2, +0.497
54
Minnesota
73.152
4-2
69.904
+0, +0.343
55
Georgia
73.095
3-3
76.365
-10, -2.067
56
Troy
72.858
3-2
74.035
+21, +4.225
57
Virginia
72.593
2-3
71.212
+8, +2.216
58
Arkansas St
72.567
1-3
68.874
+14, +2.916
59
Ohio U.
72.509
4-2
69.203
-2, +0.570
60
Idaho
72.354
5-1
69.106
+0, +1.434
61
Rutgers
72.318
4-1
53.811
-8, -0.674
62
Baylor
72.213
3-2
67.609
-10, -1.742
63
Houston
71.876
4-1
65.643
-1, +1.097
64
Arizona St
71.217
3-2
61.397
-1, +0.717
65
Tulsa
70.950
4-1
60.267
-6, -0.618
66
Iowa St
70.935
3-3
66.556
+5, +1.272
67
North Carolina
70.797
4-2
65.714
-6, -0.005
68
Colorado St
70.745
3-3
71.028
+5, +1.141
69
Bowling Green
70.432
2-4
74.559
+5, +1.004
70
North Carolina St
69.712
3-3
63.900
-31, -6.917
71
Marshall
69.351
4-2
68.517
+13, +2.973
72
Nevada
69.100
2-3
69.959
+10, +2.340
73
Texas A&M
68.998
3-2
63.432
-3, -0.668
74
Middle Tennessee St
67.989
3-2
69.486
-7, -2.104
75
Western Michigan
67.729
3-3
66.436
+24, +3.709
76
Purdue
67.704
1-5
72.456
-7, -2.243
77
Mississippi St
67.553
2-4
67.620
-19, -4.120
78
Temple
67.067
3-2
63.934
-14, -3.414
79
Southern Miss
66.483
3-3
64.424
+10, +0.636
80
San Jose St
66.288
1-4
76.010
+0, -1.122
81
Indiana
66.037
3-3
68.626
-2, -2.298
82
Kansas St
65.821
3-3
67.331
-6, -3.157
83
Louisville
65.646
2-3
62.978
+4, -0.314
84
SMU
65.513
3-2
67.432
+7, -0.118
85
San Diego St
65.478
2-3
67.871
+8, -0.016
86
Maryland
65.251
2-4
71.620
+0, -0.852
87
East Carolina
65.126
3-3
67.985
+5, -0.452
88
Northwestern
65.040
4-2
59.617
-5, -1.403
89
Central Florida
64.456
3-2
60.335
+11, +0.465
90
Syracuse
64.337
2-4
69.575
-5, -1.931
91
UTEP
64.127
2-4
68.994
-13, -4.414
92
Colorado
64.106
1-4
71.274
+6, -0.116
93
Utah St
63.667
1-4
70.023
-12, -3.544
94
Alabama-Birmingham
63.642
2-3
64.202
+7, +0.422
95
Illinois
63.493
1-4
72.317
+2, -0.823
96
Louisiana-Lafayette
63.290
3-2
67.870
-2, -1.600
97
Louisiana Tech
63.183
2-3
64.866
-29, -6.852
98
Buffalo
63.167
2-4
66.455
-3, -1.324
99
Toledo
62.828
3-3
66.563
-9, -2.947
100
North Texas
62.325
1-4
71.956
+2, +0.175
101
Louisiana-Monroe
61.777
3-2
61.971
+3, +0.020
102
Hawaii
61.372
2-3
64.161
-14, -4.515
103
Vanderbilt
61.206
2-4
62.478
-8, -3.285
104
UNLV
61.128
2-4
65.353
-1, -0.779
105
Wyoming
60.932
4-2
62.116
+1, +1.128
106
Kent St
60.344
2-4
64.332
+4, +2.345
107
Memphis
59.866
2-4
63.268
+6, +4.210
108
Army
59.652
3-3
61.460
+0, +1.327
109
Tulane
57.785
2-3
65.172
-2, -1.004
110
Florida Atlantic
57.671
0-4
72.662
+1, -0.127
111
Washington St
57.649
1-5
74.694
-6, -2.769
112
Akron
57.221
1-4
66.451
-3, -0.850
113
Ball St
56.705
0-6
66.797
+2, +1.966
114
Florida Int'l
56.655
1-4
69.285
-2, -0.049
115
Miami OH
55.117
0-6
75.904
+5, +4.029
116
New Mexico St
54.547
3-3
60.199
+1, +1.138
117
Eastern Michigan
53.608
0-5
69.391
-1, -0.659
118
Rice
50.157
0-6
69.950
+0, -2.100
119
New Mexico
49.361
0-6
67.585
+0, -2.017
120
Western Kentucky
44.212
0-5
70.057
-6,-11.107