Sunday, October 4, 2009

2009 Week 5 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 5 (games played thru 3-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Alabama and Boise St remain #1 and #2 but the gap to #3 has shrunk and there is a new #3 in Florida.  Behind them Nebraska moves to #4.  New to the top-10 are USC and Cincinnati.

We are now down to 13 undefeated teams including traditional powers and some upstarts.  We did lose Houston, UCLA, Michigan, and Texas A&M to a loss this week, and the last 3 were the 3 lowest rated undefeated teams from last week.  Check out the season projections to see who might stay undefeated.

My computer has continued what it started in week 4 with a good set of picks with an even better set this week going 29-19-1 against the spread and 35-14 picking winners.  This compares with the Vegas line going 32-16 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
92.370
5-0
68.998
+0, -1.307
2
Boise St
91.355
5-0
68.036
+0, -2.103
3
Florida
89.443
4-0
62.113
+3, +1.618
4
Nebraska
87.680
3-1
68.339
+3, -0.117
5
Virginia Tech
87.015
4-1
78.439
-1, -2.371
6
Southern Cal
86.970
4-1
73.615
+13, +5.268
7
Cincinnati
85.989
5-0
64.474
+4, +0.055
8
Iowa
85.370
5-0
75.963
-3, -2.946
9
TCU
85.335
4-0
67.899
+0, -1.749
10
Texas
85.303
4-0
64.678
-2, -1.981
11
South Florida
85.020
5-0
57.414
-8, -5.095
12
Oregon
84.792
4-1
74.383
-2, -1.402
13
Oklahoma
84.490
2-2
68.287
-1, -1.344
14
Auburn
83.999
5-0
67.787
+1, +1.076
15
Ohio State
82.718
4-1
71.061
+10, +2.264
16
LSU
82.552
5-0
71.106
+5, +1.381
17
Miami FL
82.515
3-1
82.631
-4, -1.368
18
Stanford
82.469
4-1
71.780
+11, +2.900
19
Kansas
81.919
4-0
62.524
+12, +3.202
20
Arizona
81.032
3-1
73.963
+3, +0.138
21
Utah
80.983
3-1
71.343
+1, -0.118
22
Pittsburgh
80.724
4-1
67.453
+10, +2.251
23
Georgia Tech
80.323
4-1
74.071
-5, -1.501
24
Penn State
79.849
4-1
67.101
+6, +0.494
25
UCLA
79.534
3-1
73.579
+18, +3.050
26
Missouri
79.476
4-0
64.116
+0, -0.620
27
Clemson
79.395
2-3
74.999
-13, -4.012
28
Florida St
78.695
2-3
77.498
-11, -3.667
29
Wisconsin
78.561
5-0
67.475
+12, +1.665
30
Wake Forest
78.222
3-2
72.840
+14, +2.067
31
California
78.214
3-2
74.563
-3, -1.624
32
South Carolina
78.139
4-1
67.647
-8, -2.494
33
Mississippi
77.931
3-1
63.652
-6, -1.971
34
Brigham Young
77.844
4-1
70.558
-1, -0.279
35
Fresno St
77.823
1-3
78.988
+2, +0.320
36
Notre Dame
77.570
4-1
72.032
+6, +0.940
37
Tennessee
77.376
2-3
74.247
+8, +2.517
38
Connecticut
77.141
3-1
67.344
-3, -0.777
39
North Carolina St
76.629
3-2
65.205
+0, -0.724
40
Washington
76.316
2-3
79.496
+13, +2.687
41
Boston College
76.141
4-1
64.543
+9, +2.073
42
Navy
75.911
3-2
71.701
+10, +2.228
43
Michigan St
75.755
2-3
72.961
+8, +1.921
44
Central Michigan
75.466
4-1
63.948
+3, +0.859
45
Georgia
75.162
3-2
75.106
-11, -2.827
46
Oregon St
74.947
3-2
68.259
+11, +2.024
47
Arkansas
74.834
2-2
74.043
+18, +4.502
48
Texas Tech
74.610
3-2
62.861
-28, -7.071
49
Michigan
74.380
4-1
66.189
-1, +0.001
50
Northern Illinois
74.350
3-2
66.786
+10, +1.927
51
West Virginia
74.114
3-1
66.176
-5, -0.742
52
Baylor
73.955
3-1
62.978
-3, -0.303
53
Rutgers
72.992
3-1
59.831
+5, +0.347
54
Minnesota
72.809
3-2
71.839
+12, +2.565
55
Air Force
72.710
3-2
62.841
+15, +3.593
56
Oklahoma St
72.503
3-1
59.729
-20, -5.104
57
Ohio U.
71.939
3-2
70.632
+17, +3.939
58
Mississippi St
71.673
2-3
70.037
-3, -1.768
59
Tulsa
71.568
4-1
60.826
+2, -0.647
60
Idaho
70.920
4-1
68.434
+12, +2.461
61
North Carolina
70.802
3-2
69.038
-21, -6.104
62
Houston
70.779
3-1
65.051
-46,-11.587
63
Arizona St
70.500
2-2
62.522
-25, -6.900
64
Temple
70.481
2-2
68.441
+11, +2.610
65
Virginia
70.377
1-3
73.565
+12, +2.792
66
Kentucky
70.289
2-2
72.465
+3, +0.998
67
Middle Tennessee St
70.093
3-1
67.326
-3, -0.809
68
Louisiana Tech
70.035
2-2
67.852
+25, +6.444
69
Purdue
69.947
1-4
71.986
-15, -3.556
70
Texas A&M
69.666
3-1
61.911
-11, -2.899
71
Iowa St
69.663
3-2
63.144
-9, -1.509
72
Arkansas St
69.651
1-3
66.908
+23, +6.782
73
Colorado St
69.604
3-2
68.382
-2, +0.519
74
Bowling Green
69.428
1-4
74.956
-18, -3.543
75
Duke
69.251
2-3
66.214
+9, +3.558
76
Kansas St
68.978
3-2
66.260
+5, +2.570
77
Troy
68.633
2-2
74.436
+3, +2.170
78
UTEP
68.541
2-3
70.580
+27, +7.872
79
Indiana
68.335
3-2
67.288
-6, +0.136
80
San Jose St
67.410
1-3
78.622
+7, +2.712
81
Utah St
67.211
1-3
73.698
-2, -0.159
82
Nevada
66.760
1-3
72.139
+12, +3.657
83
Northwestern
66.443
3-2
61.008
+23, +5.952
84
Marshall
66.378
3-2
68.027
-21, -4.793
85
Syracuse
66.268
2-3
69.250
+11, +3.473
86
Maryland
66.103
2-3
71.258
+5, +1.946
87
Louisville
65.960
1-3
63.755
-9, -1.548
88
Hawaii
65.887
2-2
65.508
-21, -4.091
89
Southern Miss
65.847
3-2
62.780
-21, -3.589
90
Toledo
65.775
3-2
66.866
-15, -2.096
91
SMU
65.631
2-2
70.224
+7, +3.340
92
East Carolina
65.578
3-2
67.526
-3, +0.922
93
San Diego St
65.494
2-3
67.975
+8, +3.723
94
Louisiana-Lafayette
64.890
2-2
69.905
-2, +1.137
95
Buffalo
64.491
1-4
72.441
+9, +3.347
95
Vanderbilt
64.491
2-3
64.556
-13, -1.656
97
Illinois
64.316
1-3
72.461
-11, -0.703
98
Colorado
64.222
1-3
67.324
-13, -1.372
99
Western Michigan
64.020
2-3
66.050
-11, -0.664
100
Central Florida
63.991
3-2
60.444
-3, +1.375
101
Alabama-Birmingham
63.220
2-3
63.807
+8, +4.309
102
North Texas
62.150
1-3
72.285
+1, +0.885
103
UNLV
61.907
2-3
63.147
-20, -4.099
104
Louisiana-Monroe
61.757
3-2
62.198
-14, -2.526
105
Washington St
60.418
1-4
77.150
+3, +0.742
106
Wyoming
59.804
3-2
65.079
-6, -2.269
107
Tulane
58.789
2-2
64.509
+5, +1.465
108
Army
58.325
2-3
60.742
+2, -0.105
109
Akron
58.071
1-3
66.525
+2, +0.283
110
Kent St
57.999
2-3
63.157
+3, +0.722
111
Florida Atlantic
57.798
0-4
71.845
-12, -4.343
112
Florida Int'l
56.704
0-4
74.723
-10, -4.795
113
Memphis
55.656
1-4
64.202
-6, -4.213
114
Western Kentucky
55.319
0-4
76.245
+0, +0.669
115
Ball St
54.739
0-5
66.039
+0, +0.529
116
Eastern Michigan
54.267
0-4
67.407
+0, +0.776
117
New Mexico St
53.409
2-3
61.018
+1, +2.848
118
Rice
52.257
0-5
69.879
-1, +0.333
119
New Mexico
51.378
0-5
67.793
+0, +1.807
120
Miami OH
51.088
0-5
75.130
+0, +1.534