Friday, October 23, 2009

2009 Week 8 College Football Preview

Week 8 has already started and the computer is doing ok going 2-0 in the Wednesday and Thursday games.

Last weeks highlighted games went 3-2 against the spread getting Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Iowa correct but missing on Virginia Tech and Nebraska.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.

#8 USC hosts #25 Oregon State with an opportunity to get back for their 27-21 loss on the road last year and is favored by Vegas by 21, but my computer likes them by only 10.4.  Unless vengeance is worth 10 points, Oregon State would appear to be a good pick, but there are 3 degrees of separation between the teams so it is certainly not one of this weeks locks.

#12 Iowa vists #50 Michigan State but for the second week in a row and the third time this year, Vegas has them a road underdog even though they are undefeated!  The computer is picking the "upset" by 6.2 and with 2 ways there are only 2 degrees of separation, this one is a lock.  But will Iowa's luck run out?

In an SEC battle between 5-2 Auburn at 5-1 LSU, LSU is the 8 point pick by Vegas but the computer likes them by 6.6.  So not a terribly strong pick, but still a game that will go a long way to determining seeding for the bowls.  These teams do have just 2 degrees of separation through Mississippi State who LSU beat on the road by 4 but Mississippi State beat at home by 25.

After losing a heart breaker to USC last week, Notre Dame hosts Boston College and Vegas has bought in to Notre Dame lore picking them by 9.5 while the computer thinks the more appropriate margin is 5.6.  With 4 degrees of separation though, this one is far from a lock.

Last, in a game pitting BCS buster wanna be #9 TCU at former BCS buster wanna be #33 BYU, Vegas had it even at one point but it now seems to be TCU by 2 or 2.5.  The computer thinks that still isn't enough picking TCU by 5.4.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.