Sunday, October 11, 2009

2009 Week 5 NFL Preliminary Review

After today's day games, the computer is 8-3 against the spread so I thought it would be fun to do a little review of each game.  For each game I'll first list the pick against the spread.

Cincinnati +10.5 at Baltimore - The computer picked Baltimore by 5.6 and it was looking pretty good with Baltimore leading by 4 until Palmer's late game heroics.  Still, got it right against the spread.

Buffalo -5.5 vs Cleveland - The computer picked Buffalo by 7.1 and wasn't close on the win or spread with Cleveland pulling the upset in a low scoring game.  Buffalo simply played well below expectations and will be dropping in the rankings.

Washington +5.5 at Carolina - The computer picked Carolina by 2.6 and they won by 3 so I'd say the pick was a good one.  First game of the week right on the spread and win.

Detroit +11.5 vs Pittsburgh - The computer picked Pittsburgh by 5.2, not being as impressed with them as the odds makers, and when they won by 8 it was at least partially correct in that opinion.  Another game correct on the spread and win.

Kansas City +9 vs Dallas - This was a narrow pick with Dallas the computer's pick by 8.5 and in the end it got both the spread and win correct with Dallas winning by 6 in overtime.

New York Giants -14.5 vs Oakland - Another narrow pick with the Giants the computer's pick by 14.9, and it turned out to be correct on both the win and spread after the 44-7 shellacking.  The Giants should be moving up in the rankings this week.

Philadelphia -14.5 vs Tampa Bay - The computer liked Philly, picking them by 17.5 and in the end was pretty close after the 19 point win.  Another win and spread correct pick.

Minnesota -9.5 at St. Louis - St. Louis has been bad and Minnesota good and the computer liked Minnesota by 16.4 and that wasn't even enough to be close to the 28 point win.  Another spread and win correct pick.

San Francisco -2 vs Atlanta - San Francisco had been on a good run but was apparently due for a slip-up as the computer's pick by 9.4 wasn't even close.  A miss on both the spread and win.

Arizona -5 vs Houston - Even at 1-2 the computer liked them by 6.7 over the 2-2 Texans and after the 7 point win was pretty dead on.  Another win and spread correct pick.

Jacksonville +2 at Seattle - Seattle had been stinking it up at 1-3 and the computer liked a visiting Jacksonville by 1.6.  What the computer can't take into account is that Hasselback was back and that was clearly a factor, although 41-0 was never going to be predicted.  A miss on both.

In summary, 5 picks were within less than 3 points of the final margin and the picks were 8-3 against the spread.

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Updated: Added Denver game that was missing and night game.

Denver +3.5 vs New England - The computer picks the upset with Denver by 6 and they come through winning by 3.  Another spread and win correct pick.

Indianapolis -3 at Tennessee - The computer picks Indy by 9.4 and they win by much more.  Another spread and win correct.

Updated summary adds 2 wins against the spread to get to 10-3 with 6 within 3 points or less.  Not bad.