Monday, October 12, 2009

2009 Week 5 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 5 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans was hurt a bit in the ratings by 3 previous opponents losing, particularly the Jets, and that causes them to now be projected to have 1 loss.  They do still have a 32.6% chance of going undefeated though.  The other undefeated teams have an 8.7% (Indianapolis), 5.0% (Denver), 1.8% (Minnesota), and virtually 0% (NY Giants) chance of finishing that way.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, NY Jets, New England, and Pittsburgh.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Giants, San Francisco, Atlanta, and one of Chicago or Philadelphia.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
15-1
41.5
32.6
20.3
Indianapolis
14-2
31.2
25.1
22.0
Denver
14-2
35.3
23.0
25.3
Minnesota
13-3
27.6
21.5
22.3
Cincinnati
12-4
31.0
21.9
24.3
NY Giants
11-5
27.5
21.5
22.0
NY Jets
11-5
28.6
17.8
26.2
Atlanta
11-5
25.7
16.7
25.2
New England
10-6
28.2
27.6
17.3
Chicago
10-6
25.4
21.2
20.5
Philadelphia
10-6
24.9
20.2
21.0
Pittsburgh
10-6
26.9
17.4
25.5
San Francisco
10-6
24.9
17.0
24.0
Arizona
9-7
26.0
21.3
20.9
Green Bay
9-7
25.5
20.8
21.0
Baltimore
9-7
25.4
20.1
21.6
Dallas
9-7
28.8
19.9
24.8
San Diego
8-8
26.0
25.3
16.8
Seattle
8-8
25.2
21.7
19.8
Miami
8-8
25.9
20.2
22.0
Jacksonville
8-8
24.2
16.4
24.0
Houston
6-10
27.2
19.2
24.3
Cleveland
5-11
25.9
22.8
19.3
Buffalo
5-11
25.8
18.5
23.8
Oakland
4-12
28.8
18.4
27.0
Carolina
4-12
31.9
18.1
29.1
Washington
4-12
38.4
17.9
32.7
Detroit
4-12
29.6
16.8
29.6
Tennessee
3-13
26.5
26.1
16.3
St Louis
2-14
31.0
21.4
25.7
Kansas City
2-14
32.8
20.4
28.0
Tampa Bay
1-15
41.0
25.8
23.3

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