2009 Week 5 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 5 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans was hurt a bit in the ratings by 3 previous opponents losing, particularly the Jets, and that causes them to now be projected to have 1 loss.  They do still have a 32.6% chance of going undefeated though.  The other undefeated teams have an 8.7% (Indianapolis), 5.0% (Denver), 1.8% (Minnesota), and virtually 0% (NY Giants) chance of finishing that way.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, NY Jets, New England, and Pittsburgh.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Giants, San Francisco, Atlanta, and one of Chicago or Philadelphia.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
New Orleans	15-1	41.5	32.6	20.3
Indianapolis	14-2	31.2	25.1	22.0
Denver	14-2	35.3	23.0	25.3
Minnesota	13-3	27.6	21.5	22.3
Cincinnati	12-4	31.0	21.9	24.3
NY Giants	11-5	27.5	21.5	22.0
NY Jets	11-5	28.6	17.8	26.2
Atlanta	11-5	25.7	16.7	25.2
New England	10-6	28.2	27.6	17.3
Chicago	10-6	25.4	21.2	20.5
Philadelphia	10-6	24.9	20.2	21.0
Pittsburgh	10-6	26.9	17.4	25.5
San Francisco	10-6	24.9	17.0	24.0
Arizona	9-7	26.0	21.3	20.9
Green Bay	9-7	25.5	20.8	21.0
Baltimore	9-7	25.4	20.1	21.6
Dallas	9-7	28.8	19.9	24.8
San Diego	8-8	26.0	25.3	16.8
Seattle	8-8	25.2	21.7	19.8
Miami	8-8	25.9	20.2	22.0
Jacksonville	8-8	24.2	16.4	24.0
Houston	6-10	27.2	19.2	24.3
Cleveland	5-11	25.9	22.8	19.3
Buffalo	5-11	25.8	18.5	23.8
Oakland	4-12	28.8	18.4	27.0
Carolina	4-12	31.9	18.1	29.1
Washington	4-12	38.4	17.9	32.7
Detroit	4-12	29.6	16.8	29.6
Tennessee	3-13	26.5	26.1	16.3
St Louis	2-14	31.0	21.4	25.7
Kansas City	2-14	32.8	20.4	28.0
Tampa Bay	1-15	41.0	25.8	23.3