Monday, October 12, 2009

2009 Week 6 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 6 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

The number of teams projected to go undefeated increases from 3 to 4 this week.  Florida, after getting by LSU which was their toughest remaining game, now has a 77.1% chance of finishing the regular season undefeated.  They are still well back of the 90+% chances that Alabama and Boise State have.  Let's take a look at what each team has left.

Alabama's highest rated remaning opponent will be #16 LSU, but they will get them in Alabama and they get #25 Tennessee at home too.  The toughest game will likely be at Auburn but as of now they'd be favored by 15 in that one.

Boise State's toughest game will be #65 Tulsa which is pretty much enough said.

Florida has a number of potential games to slip up in but will be heavily favored in them all.  Those games include #22 Arkansas at home, #38 Florida State at home, #43 South Carolina on the road, and #55 Georgia.

Last, TCU has to travel to #29 BYU but gets #17 Utah at home.

Of the other 5 currently undefeateds, Cincinnati has the best shot at finished unblemished at 32% with Iowa and South Florida close behind at 14.2%.  But one of Cincinnati/South Florida will emerge from their game this week with a win and that team may then be projected to finish undefeated.  Texas is actually projected to have 2 losses and Kansas 3.  If Texas can get past Oklahoma this weekend in convincing fashion, they will be past their toughest game and may improve enough in the ratings to be projected to be undefeated.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Alabama 12-0 94.5 0.0 5.5
Boise St 13-0 92.7 0.0 7.2
Florida 12-0 77.1 0.0 20.7
TCU 12-0 55.1 0.0 40.6
Cincinnati 11-1 50.1 32.0 16.7
Iowa 11-1 45.1 14.2 33.1
South Florida 11-1 34.9 14.2 32.6
Virginia Tech 11-1 67.2 0.0 29.0
Nebraska 11-1 52.7 0.0 37.1
Ohio State 10-2 43.2 26.8 24.3
Texas 10-2 34.0 26.0 22.5
Wisconsin 10-2 44.6 15.5 30.9
Oregon 10-2 36.0 15.5 32.0
Southern Cal 10-2 36.8 14.1 32.2
Houston 10-2 35.9 13.8 32.7
Miami FL 10-2 38.5 11.9 33.6
Utah 9-3 47.5 41.6 7.1
Georgia Tech 9-3 39.1 34.8 16.6
Ohio U. 9-3 46.7 34.4 17.0
Brigham Young 9-3 36.6 34.0 16.0
Central Michigan 9-3 36.1 29.6 20.1
LSU 9-3 45.4 28.0 22.8
Missouri 9-3 35.6 26.0 22.8
Penn State 9-3 36.7 20.5 28.4
Kansas 9-3 32.1 18.1 29.0
Idaho 9-3 44.2 14.7 34.8
Northern Illinois 9-3 38.2 11.7 37.6
Troy 9-3 41.3 10.7 34.4
Auburn 8-4 38.3 34.6 15.9
Middle Tennessee St 8-4 35.1 31.0 18.6
Fresno St 8-4 42.7 30.5 21.4
Pittsburgh 8-4 34.5 29.8 18.5
Notre Dame 8-4 33.3 28.7 18.9
Navy 9-4 37.9 28.3 21.4
Tulsa 8-4 33.5 28.3 20.2
Michigan 8-4 42.9 26.4 22.5
Arkansas St 8-4 41.3 22.4 27.2
Oklahoma 8-4 35.0 18.5 29.3
Marshall 8-4 36.0 18.1 29.8
Mississippi 8-4 32.7 16.4 30.9
Rutgers 8-4 34.1 15.8 31.7
West Virginia 7-5 36.3 33.8 15.5
Temple 7-5 37.9 33.5 16.2
Arizona 7-5 34.8 32.1 16.3
Colorado St 7-5 46.5 31.0 19.5
Arkansas 7-5 36.8 30.8 18.0
Boston College 7-5 31.3 30.8 16.3
Oklahoma St 7-5 32.2 23.7 23.5
Oregon St 7-5 41.8 23.2 25.8
California 7-5 31.4 22.7 24.2
Stanford 7-5 36.1 22.6 25.9
South Carolina 7-5 46.2 22.3 27.4
Michigan St 7-5 36.9 21.8 27.1
Texas Tech 7-5 34.8 21.7 26.7
Connecticut 7-5 41.4 21.1 29.3
Bowling Green 7-5 43.8 19.5 28.6
Tennessee 7-5 43.9 19.0 30.4
Louisiana-Lafayette 7-5 35.8 18.5 29.3
Western Michigan 7-5 38.4 17.6 30.3
Clemson 7-5 33.8 17.1 29.9
Kentucky 7-5 37.0 16.6 32.4
UCLA 7-5 37.4 15.5 33.0
Air Force 7-5 40.1 13.6 36.2
Minnesota 7-5 44.5 9.9 39.1
SMU 6-6 38.3 30.3 16.8
East Carolina 6-6 40.1 28.0 22.2
Washington 6-6 35.9 25.7 23.1
Southern Miss 6-6 36.3 25.0 23.7
Georgia 6-6 44.1 24.3 24.7
Duke 6-6 35.7 23.5 25.3
Wake Forest 6-6 34.6 23.4 25.2
Central Florida 6-6 39.2 23.2 26.5
North Carolina 6-6 34.4 17.1 32.5
Texas A&M 6-6 30.6 17.1 29.4
Nevada 6-6 32.2 16.2 30.6
Iowa St 6-6 35.8 13.8 34.8
Toledo 5-7 36.6 33.6 14.3
Louisiana-Monroe 5-7 32.4 31.9 13.9
North Texas 5-7 40.1 31.3 19.6
Northwestern 5-7 43.8 31.0 17.8
Florida St 5-7 39.2 30.0 19.2
Baylor 5-7 32.8 27.4 19.8
UTEP 5-7 32.7 26.7 20.8
North Carolina St 5-7 38.5 25.4 23.5
Indiana 5-7 39.7 23.1 26.4
Alabama-Birmingham 5-7 33.4 22.4 25.4
Buffalo 5-7 34.3 20.0 28.1
Kansas St 5-7 37.0 13.9 36.0
San Diego St 5-7 44.1 13.1 35.5
Wyoming 4-8 61.6 32.1 0.0
San Jose St 4-8 35.1 30.4 18.3
Virginia 4-8 31.7 30.3 16.1
Arizona St 4-8 38.5 29.1 19.3
Army 4-8 67.2 28.5 0.0
Kent St 4-8 36.7 27.3 21.8
Louisiana Tech 4-8 44.0 21.1 28.9
UNLV 4-8 40.1 14.9 35.9
Tulane 3-9 35.7 35.6 10.5
Syracuse 3-9 51.1 35.0 7.0
Louisville 3-9 42.6 35.0 12.1
Memphis 3-9 40.8 29.3 19.7
Utah St 3-9 36.7 27.0 22.3
Maryland 3-9 41.8 24.8 26.0
Hawaii 4-9 41.4 24.5 24.3
Akron 3-9 38.3 21.1 28.3
Mississippi St 3-9 43.0 17.1 36.9
Purdue 3-9 40.3 15.2 35.6
Florida Int'l 2-10 40.6 33.6 14.3
New Mexico St 3-10 59.8 32.9 0.0
Illinois 2-10 42.0 29.5 18.2
Vanderbilt 2-10 68.0 28.4 0.0
Colorado 2-10 40.0 28.3 20.6
Florida Atlantic 2-10 40.1 23.5 27.1
Eastern Michigan 1-11 38.0 31.2 16.7
Miami OH 1-11 43.5 17.5 36.0
Washington St 1-11 90.2 9.4 0.0
Ball St 1-11 50.1 6.7 42.9
Rice 0-12 46.2 41.4 0.0
New Mexico 0-12 76.4 23.1 0.0
Western Kentucky 0-12 79.0 19.2 0.0