Thursday, October 15, 2009

Boise State Wins, But ..., and Cincinnati vs South Florida

Boise State won last night, beating Tulsa 28-21, and while a win is a win in many voters eyes (at least when rating a highly ranked team from a top conference), the computer doesn't agree and a 7 point win on the road against the #65 team in the rankings is likely going to drop Boise State from their current #2 spot in the next ratings to #5 or #6.

How much?  Right now with only the Tuesday night game the other game played, Boise State would lose just over 3 ratings points and drop to #5.  Florida would be the beneficiary moving to #2 and Virginia Tech would move to #4.

There is another big game tonight that should help sort things out for those vying to get into the BCS with Cincinnati visiting South Florida.  With Vegas favoring Cincinnati by 3.5 or so, the computer is picking the upset with South Florida by 0.8.  Hopefully it will be a competitive game.  A win by Cincinnati could move them into the top-5 and a win by South Florida could get them to #6 or #7.

The South Florida pick is not one of the computer's best picks or locks this week, but if you are interested in seeing which are, take a look at the weekly newsletter subscription that is available.