Friday, October 9, 2009

2009 Week 5 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 5 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.

The number of teams projected to go undefeated drops from 6 last week to 3.  While Iowa won, their 3 point win over Arkansas State did not impress the computer and they are now projected to lose 1 game but still have a 28% chance of going undefeated.  Houston lost to a 3-loss UTEP team and has fallen all the way to a 3 loss projection now.  South Florida won but was hurt by Florida State losing and is now projected to have 1 loss, but still has a 16% chance of going undefeated.

Of the other 1-loss projections, Florida leads the way with a 35% chance of an unblemished season but Cincinnati also has a decent shot at 20%.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Boise St 13-0 88.2 0.0 11.4
Alabama 12-0 61.5 0.0 33.1
TCU 12-0 51.3 0.0 39.8
Florida 11-1 42.0 35.3 18.3
Iowa 11-1 47.3 27.9 21.5
Cincinnati 11-1 46.6 20.1 28.5
South Florida 11-1 37.0 16.1 31.8
Virginia Tech 10-2 42.1 40.6 14.6
Auburn 10-2 40.6 25.5 23.2
Texas 10-2 33.0 24.3 23.6
Wisconsin 10-2 55.8 23.5 16.4
Penn State 10-2 39.0 15.5 33.5
Nebraska 10-2 34.5 14.5 32.1
Ohio State 10-2 36.7 14.0 33.8
Southern Cal 10-2 34.5 13.7 32.3
Central Michigan 10-2 36.1 10.9 35.8
Utah 9-3 46.1 38.2 12.0
LSU 9-3 36.9 34.9 15.0
Navy 9-4 38.0 34.4 15.8
Miami FL 9-3 38.5 32.3 17.9
Kansas 9-3 31.6 27.3 19.6
Brigham Young 9-3 37.3 27.2 21.9
Missouri 9-3 31.8 27.0 19.9
Georgia Tech 9-3 37.1 26.5 22.3
Middle Tennessee St 9-3 34.2 25.3 23.1
Pittsburgh 9-3 35.0 22.8 25.3
Ohio U. 9-3 42.9 22.7 27.0
Houston 9-3 33.0 18.1 28.6
Oregon 9-3 31.6 18.1 28.4
Northern Illinois 8-4 39.6 36.4 13.3
Tulsa 8-4 33.6 30.3 18.4
Stanford 8-4 32.0 30.0 17.4
Arizona 8-4 32.3 23.3 23.9
Boston College 8-4 33.1 22.4 25.0
Idaho 8-4 33.9 19.8 27.9
Notre Dame 8-4 34.0 18.9 28.6
UCLA 8-4 34.3 18.8 28.8
Temple 8-4 40.8 17.4 31.3
Mississippi 8-4 34.0 16.2 31.1
Fresno St 8-4 34.0 15.8 30.5
South Carolina 8-4 36.3 15.8 33.3
Oklahoma 8-4 30.5 15.6 29.7
Rutgers 8-4 34.1 15.0 32.2
Michigan 7-5 40.2 33.2 14.3
Troy 7-5 30.2 29.1 17.4
Colorado St 7-5 43.9 26.9 22.8
Connecticut 7-5 36.5 26.4 21.9
West Virginia 7-5 39.8 22.5 27.0
North Carolina St 7-5 35.5 22.1 26.1
Arkansas St 7-5 33.8 21.6 26.0
California 7-5 31.6 21.6 25.2
Wake Forest 7-5 32.6 20.8 26.5
UTEP 7-5 31.7 19.9 26.6
Air Force 7-5 37.7 18.7 30.1
East Carolina 7-5 38.3 17.6 30.6
Marshall 7-5 31.0 17.1 29.0
Louisiana-Lafayette 7-5 28.9 16.6 27.8
Toledo 7-5 33.4 15.0 33.1
Bowling Green 7-5 36.6 11.4 35.4
Minnesota 6-6 45.6 35.6 14.4
Georgia 6-6 40.8 32.3 13.9
Tennessee 6-6 35.9 31.7 17.9
Michigan St 6-6 32.5 31.5 16.1
Clemson 6-6 32.5 31.4 16.1
Southern Miss 6-6 30.8 29.9 15.8
Texas Tech 6-6 32.3 27.8 19.2
Oklahoma St 6-6 28.0 27.5 16.4
Central Florida 6-6 37.8 25.3 23.8
Texas A&M 6-6 29.2 24.7 20.3
Baylor 6-6 30.2 23.2 22.6
SMU 6-6 34.2 21.5 26.4
Florida St 6-6 33.5 19.6 28.0
Arkansas 6-6 32.2 17.0 30.4
Kentucky 6-6 34.6 16.8 31.1
Oregon St 6-6 33.8 16.1 33.1
Western Michigan 6-6 33.8 15.9 31.4
North Carolina 5-7 36.6 34.8 10.8
Northwestern 5-7 45.7 31.1 18.0
Iowa St 5-7 37.1 30.6 18.3
Buffalo 5-7 32.9 30.4 17.0
Louisiana-Monroe 5-7 30.3 29.4 15.6
North Texas 5-7 31.3 29.4 17.4
Washington 5-7 31.1 29.3 16.9
Louisiana Tech 5-7 34.9 28.2 20.1
Indiana 5-7 46.7 24.1 24.4
Kansas St 5-7 39.9 23.1 25.3
Alabama-Birmingham 5-7 34.0 22.9 24.8
Hawaii 5-8 33.9 22.1 26.2
San Jose St 5-7 31.0 17.0 29.6
San Diego St 5-7 44.2 14.7 34.7
Utah St 4-8 32.6 29.9 17.4
Nevada 4-8 28.7 28.6 16.1
Mississippi St 4-8 33.6 28.1 19.6
Wyoming 4-8 63.2 27.1 5.2
Arizona St 4-8 36.2 24.2 24.6
Tulane 4-8 34.0 23.0 25.3
UNLV 4-8 38.2 23.0 26.3
Virginia 4-8 37.5 21.5 27.2
Duke 4-8 36.2 19.0 31.3
Kent St 4-8 35.1 18.4 31.2
Syracuse 4-8 41.0 15.4 37.5
Army 3-9 49.6 39.9 0.3
Vanderbilt 3-9 44.0 33.0 14.3
Maryland 3-9 39.3 28.4 20.2
Louisville 3-9 37.8 27.7 21.7
Akron 3-9 39.5 25.3 22.2
Purdue 3-9 38.1 24.5 24.8
Illinois 2-10 37.1 31.0 15.6
Colorado 2-10 38.6 27.8 20.6
New Mexico St 2-11 72.7 24.8 0.0
Western Kentucky 2-10 32.5 23.9 23.5
Florida Atlantic 2-10 34.7 22.5 26.1
Florida Int'l 2-10 36.1 21.8 27.6
Memphis 2-10 42.2 18.9 34.4
Eastern Michigan 2-10 37.9 15.4 35.0
Washington St 1-11 57.3 35.2 0.0
Rice 1-11 43.1 13.4 41.8
Ball St 0-12 63.6 33.5 0.0
New Mexico 0-12 65.3 31.3 0.0
Miami OH 0-12 64.8 29.9 0.0