With the changes in the ratings this week, the projected records change as well.
The number of teams projected to go undefeated drops from 6 last week to 3. While Iowa won, their 3 point win over Arkansas State did not impress the computer and they are now projected to lose 1 game but still have a 28% chance of going undefeated. Houston lost to a 3-loss UTEP team and has fallen all the way to a 3 loss projection now. South Florida won but was hurt by Florida State losing and is now projected to have 1 loss, but still has a 16% chance of going undefeated.
Of the other 1-loss projections, Florida leads the way with a 35% chance of an unblemished season but Cincinnati also has a decent shot at 20%.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Boise St | 13-0 | 88.2 | 0.0 | 11.4 |
| Alabama | 12-0 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 33.1 |
| TCU | 12-0 | 51.3 | 0.0 | 39.8 |
| Florida | 11-1 | 42.0 | 35.3 | 18.3 |
| Iowa | 11-1 | 47.3 | 27.9 | 21.5 |
| Cincinnati | 11-1 | 46.6 | 20.1 | 28.5 |
| South Florida | 11-1 | 37.0 | 16.1 | 31.8 |
| Virginia Tech | 10-2 | 42.1 | 40.6 | 14.6 |
| Auburn | 10-2 | 40.6 | 25.5 | 23.2 |
| Texas | 10-2 | 33.0 | 24.3 | 23.6 |
| Wisconsin | 10-2 | 55.8 | 23.5 | 16.4 |
| Penn State | 10-2 | 39.0 | 15.5 | 33.5 |
| Nebraska | 10-2 | 34.5 | 14.5 | 32.1 |
| Ohio State | 10-2 | 36.7 | 14.0 | 33.8 |
| Southern Cal | 10-2 | 34.5 | 13.7 | 32.3 |
| Central Michigan | 10-2 | 36.1 | 10.9 | 35.8 |
| Utah | 9-3 | 46.1 | 38.2 | 12.0 |
| LSU | 9-3 | 36.9 | 34.9 | 15.0 |
| Navy | 9-4 | 38.0 | 34.4 | 15.8 |
| Miami FL | 9-3 | 38.5 | 32.3 | 17.9 |
| Kansas | 9-3 | 31.6 | 27.3 | 19.6 |
| Brigham Young | 9-3 | 37.3 | 27.2 | 21.9 |
| Missouri | 9-3 | 31.8 | 27.0 | 19.9 |
| Georgia Tech | 9-3 | 37.1 | 26.5 | 22.3 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 9-3 | 34.2 | 25.3 | 23.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 35.0 | 22.8 | 25.3 |
| Ohio U. | 9-3 | 42.9 | 22.7 | 27.0 |
| Houston | 9-3 | 33.0 | 18.1 | 28.6 |
| Oregon | 9-3 | 31.6 | 18.1 | 28.4 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 39.6 | 36.4 | 13.3 |
| Tulsa | 8-4 | 33.6 | 30.3 | 18.4 |
| Stanford | 8-4 | 32.0 | 30.0 | 17.4 |
| Arizona | 8-4 | 32.3 | 23.3 | 23.9 |
| Boston College | 8-4 | 33.1 | 22.4 | 25.0 |
| Idaho | 8-4 | 33.9 | 19.8 | 27.9 |
| Notre Dame | 8-4 | 34.0 | 18.9 | 28.6 |
| UCLA | 8-4 | 34.3 | 18.8 | 28.8 |
| Temple | 8-4 | 40.8 | 17.4 | 31.3 |
| Mississippi | 8-4 | 34.0 | 16.2 | 31.1 |
| Fresno St | 8-4 | 34.0 | 15.8 | 30.5 |
| South Carolina | 8-4 | 36.3 | 15.8 | 33.3 |
| Oklahoma | 8-4 | 30.5 | 15.6 | 29.7 |
| Rutgers | 8-4 | 34.1 | 15.0 | 32.2 |
| Michigan | 7-5 | 40.2 | 33.2 | 14.3 |
| Troy | 7-5 | 30.2 | 29.1 | 17.4 |
| Colorado St | 7-5 | 43.9 | 26.9 | 22.8 |
| Connecticut | 7-5 | 36.5 | 26.4 | 21.9 |
| West Virginia | 7-5 | 39.8 | 22.5 | 27.0 |
| North Carolina St | 7-5 | 35.5 | 22.1 | 26.1 |
| Arkansas St | 7-5 | 33.8 | 21.6 | 26.0 |
| California | 7-5 | 31.6 | 21.6 | 25.2 |
| Wake Forest | 7-5 | 32.6 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| UTEP | 7-5 | 31.7 | 19.9 | 26.6 |
| Air Force | 7-5 | 37.7 | 18.7 | 30.1 |
| East Carolina | 7-5 | 38.3 | 17.6 | 30.6 |
| Marshall | 7-5 | 31.0 | 17.1 | 29.0 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7-5 | 28.9 | 16.6 | 27.8 |
| Toledo | 7-5 | 33.4 | 15.0 | 33.1 |
| Bowling Green | 7-5 | 36.6 | 11.4 | 35.4 |
| Minnesota | 6-6 | 45.6 | 35.6 | 14.4 |
| Georgia | 6-6 | 40.8 | 32.3 | 13.9 |
| Tennessee | 6-6 | 35.9 | 31.7 | 17.9 |
| Michigan St | 6-6 | 32.5 | 31.5 | 16.1 |
| Clemson | 6-6 | 32.5 | 31.4 | 16.1 |
| Southern Miss | 6-6 | 30.8 | 29.9 | 15.8 |
| Texas Tech | 6-6 | 32.3 | 27.8 | 19.2 |
| Oklahoma St | 6-6 | 28.0 | 27.5 | 16.4 |
| Central Florida | 6-6 | 37.8 | 25.3 | 23.8 |
| Texas A&M | 6-6 | 29.2 | 24.7 | 20.3 |
| Baylor | 6-6 | 30.2 | 23.2 | 22.6 |
| SMU | 6-6 | 34.2 | 21.5 | 26.4 |
| Florida St | 6-6 | 33.5 | 19.6 | 28.0 |
| Arkansas | 6-6 | 32.2 | 17.0 | 30.4 |
| Kentucky | 6-6 | 34.6 | 16.8 | 31.1 |
| Oregon St | 6-6 | 33.8 | 16.1 | 33.1 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 33.8 | 15.9 | 31.4 |
| North Carolina | 5-7 | 36.6 | 34.8 | 10.8 |
| Northwestern | 5-7 | 45.7 | 31.1 | 18.0 |
| Iowa St | 5-7 | 37.1 | 30.6 | 18.3 |
| Buffalo | 5-7 | 32.9 | 30.4 | 17.0 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 5-7 | 30.3 | 29.4 | 15.6 |
| North Texas | 5-7 | 31.3 | 29.4 | 17.4 |
| Washington | 5-7 | 31.1 | 29.3 | 16.9 |
| Louisiana Tech | 5-7 | 34.9 | 28.2 | 20.1 |
| Indiana | 5-7 | 46.7 | 24.1 | 24.4 |
| Kansas St | 5-7 | 39.9 | 23.1 | 25.3 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 5-7 | 34.0 | 22.9 | 24.8 |
| Hawaii | 5-8 | 33.9 | 22.1 | 26.2 |
| San Jose St | 5-7 | 31.0 | 17.0 | 29.6 |
| San Diego St | 5-7 | 44.2 | 14.7 | 34.7 |
| Utah St | 4-8 | 32.6 | 29.9 | 17.4 |
| Nevada | 4-8 | 28.7 | 28.6 | 16.1 |
| Mississippi St | 4-8 | 33.6 | 28.1 | 19.6 |
| Wyoming | 4-8 | 63.2 | 27.1 | 5.2 |
| Arizona St | 4-8 | 36.2 | 24.2 | 24.6 |
| Tulane | 4-8 | 34.0 | 23.0 | 25.3 |
| UNLV | 4-8 | 38.2 | 23.0 | 26.3 |
| Virginia | 4-8 | 37.5 | 21.5 | 27.2 |
| Duke | 4-8 | 36.2 | 19.0 | 31.3 |
| Kent St | 4-8 | 35.1 | 18.4 | 31.2 |
| Syracuse | 4-8 | 41.0 | 15.4 | 37.5 |
| Army | 3-9 | 49.6 | 39.9 | 0.3 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-9 | 44.0 | 33.0 | 14.3 |
| Maryland | 3-9 | 39.3 | 28.4 | 20.2 |
| Louisville | 3-9 | 37.8 | 27.7 | 21.7 |
| Akron | 3-9 | 39.5 | 25.3 | 22.2 |
| Purdue | 3-9 | 38.1 | 24.5 | 24.8 |
| Illinois | 2-10 | 37.1 | 31.0 | 15.6 |
| Colorado | 2-10 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 20.6 |
| New Mexico St | 2-11 | 72.7 | 24.8 | 0.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 2-10 | 32.5 | 23.9 | 23.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | 2-10 | 34.7 | 22.5 | 26.1 |
| Florida Int'l | 2-10 | 36.1 | 21.8 | 27.6 |
| Memphis | 2-10 | 42.2 | 18.9 | 34.4 |
| Eastern Michigan | 2-10 | 37.9 | 15.4 | 35.0 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 57.3 | 35.2 | 0.0 |
| Rice | 1-11 | 43.1 | 13.4 | 41.8 |
| Ball St | 0-12 | 63.6 | 33.5 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 0-12 | 65.3 | 31.3 | 0.0 |
| Miami OH | 0-12 | 64.8 | 29.9 | 0.0 |
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