Sunday, October 18, 2009

2009 Week 7 College Football Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 7 of the college football season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.

Even though the ranks of the undefeated lost Kansas this week, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated went up from 4 to 6.

Boise State is projected at the top with 13 wins (they get an extra game this year), but Alabama stays slightly ahead on the chance to finish without a loss at 95.2% to 94.7%.  Now close behind them is Cincinnati after getting past potentially their toughest game at South Florida at 88.2%.  Florida actually lost a little ground in the likelihood race dropping from 77.1% to 70.8% and TCU stays on this list at 62.2% up a bit from last week.  The addition other than Cincinnati to the list is Texas having gotten by Oklahoma at 52.9%.

Iowa is the only current undefeated not projected to finish that way with 1 loss most likely at 45.5% but 0 losses is very close at 43.9%.

With this many teams projected to finish unblemished, it is unlikely that a 1 loss team will find their way into the championship game, and only one of those, Georgia Tech, is projected to finish with 1 loss.  All of the others, including USC, Oregon, Miami, LSU, and South Florida are projected to lose once more.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Team Record % chance % +1 % -1
Boise St 13-0 94.7 0.0 5.2
Alabama 12-0 95.2 0.0 4.8
Cincinnati 12-0 88.2 0.0 11.7
Florida 12-0 70.8 0.0 25.8
TCU 12-0 62.2 0.0 34.6
Texas 12-0 52.9 0.0 36.4
Iowa 11-1 45.5 43.9 10.3
Georgia Tech 11-1 48.7 0.0 39.5
Houston 10-2 45.7 34.4 17.2
Southern Cal 10-2 42.0 18.6 28.8
Central Michigan 10-2 42.4 18.0 30.6
Miami FL 10-2 39.5 18.0 30.0
Penn State 10-2 37.5 14.4 34.1
Brigham Young 10-2 38.6 10.8 37.4
Virginia Tech 10-2 68.6 0.0 28.0
Utah 9-3 50.2 41.3 5.5
Texas Tech 9-3 42.3 39.4 15.7
Ohio U. 9-3 46.0 33.8 17.9
Oregon 9-3 33.4 32.1 17.2
South Florida 9-3 35.9 30.5 19.1
LSU 9-3 46.3 27.6 22.6
Wisconsin 9-3 42.4 25.7 24.6
Nebraska 9-3 35.9 15.3 31.8
Pittsburgh 9-3 38.2 14.9 34.9
Idaho 9-3 43.5 12.8 36.5
Navy 9-4 38.7 36.0 16.2
Fresno St 8-4 42.4 40.7 14.7
West Virginia 8-4 40.4 32.4 18.7
Troy 8-4 40.4 32.0 19.3
Michigan 8-4 37.7 29.4 20.3
Ohio State 8-4 40.6 28.3 21.7
Tulsa 8-4 35.3 27.9 21.3
Notre Dame 8-4 38.3 25.6 23.4
Boston College 8-4 37.1 22.1 26.9
Kentucky 8-4 44.3 21.2 27.9
California 8-4 33.5 20.1 27.8
Mississippi 8-4 33.2 17.9 29.9
Oklahoma St 8-4 34.5 16.1 32.3
Arizona 8-4 36.4 15.2 34.3
Northern Illinois 8-4 43.0 11.5 39.9
Temple 7-5 38.2 34.9 13.8
Arkansas 7-5 38.2 33.6 16.2
Auburn 7-5 44.2 32.8 16.6
Marshall 7-5 34.5 31.7 17.9
Oregon St 7-5 42.7 31.3 16.0
Louisiana-Monroe 7-5 36.7 30.2 19.0
South Carolina 7-5 42.4 29.4 19.7
Colorado St 7-5 45.0 28.3 22.2
Clemson 7-5 38.3 27.3 22.0
Oklahoma 7-5 38.1 27.3 21.9
Kansas 7-5 36.3 26.1 22.6
Missouri 7-5 34.3 23.0 25.3
Middle Tennessee St 7-5 36.9 21.4 27.8
Rutgers 7-5 40.5 21.0 27.8
Connecticut 7-5 43.3 18.5 32.9
Louisiana-Lafayette 7-5 30.7 17.0 29.7
Air Force 7-5 42.4 13.6 37.2
Bowling Green 7-5 40.6 12.5 34.6
Toledo 7-5 38.3 12.4 36.9
Minnesota 7-5 46.3 7.4 40.3
Western Michigan 6-6 39.5 39.5 12.8
Tennessee 6-6 40.0 35.0 14.3
Stanford 6-6 35.0 33.8 14.9
Iowa St 6-6 36.0 33.6 15.2
Michigan St 6-6 34.4 32.9 15.1
Georgia 6-6 44.4 31.8 18.0
Southern Miss 6-6 37.5 31.1 17.7
East Carolina 6-6 40.2 30.6 19.6
SMU 6-6 46.9 26.6 19.7
Arkansas St 6-6 35.8 25.2 23.7
Nevada 6-6 38.1 23.0 26.3
North Carolina 6-6 37.1 22.5 26.8
Central Florida 6-6 43.4 22.0 28.0
Kansas St 6-6 38.4 21.8 27.8
UCLA 6-6 39.0 10.3 37.8
Northwestern 6-6 39.4 10.0 38.7
Florida St 5-7 38.3 34.2 15.9
Arizona St 5-7 33.2 32.7 13.3
Duke 5-7 36.7 32.5 15.3
Wake Forest 5-7 38.1 31.3 17.2
Washington 5-7 39.3 31.0 17.9
UTEP 5-7 33.0 27.8 19.8
Indiana 5-7 43.4 27.1 23.0
Virginia 5-7 37.0 24.8 23.7
Buffalo 5-7 36.4 20.8 28.8
Kent St 5-7 38.4 16.6 33.3
San Diego St 4-8 43.6 38.7 11.8
Wyoming 4-8 54.0 37.8 0.0
North Carolina St 4-8 38.2 37.2 10.7
Texas A&M 4-8 37.3 32.8 15.2
Louisiana Tech 4-8 42.9 31.7 17.4
Baylor 4-8 37.9 31.6 16.3
Purdue 4-8 39.9 31.3 17.7
Alabama-Birmingham 4-8 30.8 30.4 15.7
Florida Atlantic 4-8 31.6 27.8 18.8
San Jose St 4-8 37.5 26.2 23.4
Army 4-8 73.1 25.4 0.0
Colorado 4-8 35.8 21.1 28.1
Louisville 4-8 45.1 19.6 29.5
UNLV 4-8 42.1 15.7 34.6
Hawaii 4-9 40.8 28.8 18.9
Mississippi St 3-9 45.4 42.1 0.0
North Texas 3-9 38.5 36.7 9.4
Tulane 3-9 44.7 34.5 11.9
Syracuse 3-9 54.0 34.2 5.9
Florida Int'l 3-9 40.5 20.9 29.0
Memphis 3-9 46.9 20.0 30.6
Akron 3-9 42.6 15.9 34.8
Utah St 3-9 37.1 13.2 36.8
New Mexico St 3-10 67.9 28.1 0.0
Maryland 2-10 43.5 41.6 0.0
Vanderbilt 2-10 91.7 8.1 0.0
Illinois 1-11 46.1 42.6 0.0
Miami OH 1-11 43.5 19.5 33.1
Washington St 1-11 86.7 12.6 0.0
Ball St 1-11 60.5 3.7 35.8
Eastern Michigan 0-12 45.2 42.8 0.0
Rice 0-12 58.4 35.5 0.0
Western Kentucky 0-12 74.0 22.9 0.0
New Mexico 0-12 79.1 20.3 0.0