2009 Week 8 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 8 (games played thru 24-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

In a week with few games between top teams and several closer than expected games, there wasn't huge movement in the top-10 but the top teams did come back and the top-5 are now within 3.5 ratings points where it was 6 points last week.

The big reason for this is Alabama squeaking by Tennessee which dropped them over 4 ratings points, but they managed to hold on to #1 because of their big lead, but also because Florida squandered a chance to move up with their own closer than expected win over Mississippi State, Cincinnati having to play a weak Louisville, and Boise State having to play a weak Hawaii.  Texas too could have moved up some, but was hurt big time when prior opponent Texas Tech, favored by 21 at home over Texas A&M, lost by 22.  Texas's two best games are now against a 4-3 Oklahoma and a 5-3 Texas Tech and this is reflected in their schedule strength being #50 at 68.484.  For reference Washington is rated the #1 schedule at 77.443.

Two teams that did take advantage of their situations to move up were TCU and Oregon.  TCU played BYU in one of the few games pitting top teams against each other and won handily setting themselves up well for an undefeated season, but also move them up 4 spots to #5 in the rankings.  Oregon continues to look good after their season opening loss to Boise State walloping Washington to move up to #7 in the rankings which puts them now ahead of next weeks opponent USC.

But the biggest movers in the top-25 though were Pittsburgh jumping 17 spots to #18 as South Florida shrinks away after their strong start, and Oklahoma State also jumping 17 spots to #23 due in part to prior opponent Texas A&M's big upset noted above.

Last, just because they keep pulling them out and deserve a mention, Iowa moves up 1 spot to #11 after yet another close win.  One might argue that they should be in the top-10 as one of just 7 remaining undefeated teams, but give that Vegas has had them as underdogs in 3 games this year (including their last 2) and my computer has picked all those games right against the spread and picked the "upset" in the last 2, I think they are probably in the right spot.

As noted above, we still have 7 undefeated teams left, and all 7 are now projected to finish that way with TCU and Boise State the most likely.  Check out the season projections to see all the details.

Even with the closer than expected games, the computer did ok going 30-24-2 against the spread and did quite well straight up going 46-10 while Vegas went 42-13.  Most of the upsets the computer picked came through.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	90.720	8-0	71.761	+0, -4.473
2	Florida	88.548	7-0	70.478	+1, -1.756
3	Cincinnati	87.562	7-0	66.333	-1, -2.947
4	Boise St	87.362	7-0	67.478	+0, -2.114
5	TCU	87.239	7-0	68.999	+4, +1.280
6	Texas	86.431	7-0	68.484	-1, -3.032
7	Oregon	86.004	6-1	73.447	+3, +0.096
8	Virginia Tech	84.857	5-2	76.571	-1, -2.298
9	Southern Cal	84.220	6-1	72.565	-1, -2.228
10	Oklahoma	83.853	4-3	69.132	+1, -1.009
11	Iowa	82.515	8-0	73.472	+1, -1.304
12	Georgia Tech	82.151	7-1	74.182	+3, -0.432
13	LSU	81.491	6-1	71.197	+3, +0.377
14	Clemson	81.308	4-3	74.394	+6, +1.124
15	Penn State	80.990	7-1	64.928	+8, +1.790
16	Arizona	80.667	5-2	74.665	+1, -0.153
17	Miami FL	80.438	5-2	74.495	-3, -2.390
18	Pittsburgh	79.093	7-1	67.628	+17, +1.559
19	California	78.894	5-2	70.291	+2, -1.147
20	Ohio State	78.641	6-2	68.083	+4, -0.455
21	Mississippi	78.533	5-2	67.615	+9, +0.724
22	Stanford	78.445	5-3	71.267	+5, +0.144
23	Oklahoma St	78.322	6-1	64.067	+17, +1.857
24	Tennessee	78.272	3-4	72.128	+5, +0.363
25	Oregon St	78.146	4-3	72.477	+0, -0.899
26	Arkansas	77.837	3-4	76.868	-8, -2.841
27	Utah	77.661	6-1	68.318	-5, -1.963
28	Texas Tech	76.625	5-3	64.602	-22,-11.321
29	Central Michigan	76.532	7-1	62.796	+13, +0.324
30	Nebraska	76.421	4-3	68.725	-17, -6.751
31	Fresno St	76.336	4-3	68.912	-5, -2.402
32	Kentucky	76.120	4-3	72.683	+0, -1.529
33	Notre Dame	75.894	5-2	72.301	-5, -2.039
34	South Carolina	75.265	6-2	70.384	-3, -2.502
35	Houston	75.137	6-1	64.438	+4, -1.410
36	Auburn	75.034	5-3	71.314	-2, -2.514
37	Brigham Young	74.984	6-2	68.946	-4, -2.599
38	West Virginia	74.867	6-1	65.254	-2, -1.776
39	Boston College	74.712	5-3	69.747	+6, -0.626
40	Georgia	74.692	4-3	75.402	+6, -0.617
41	UCLA	74.333	3-4	76.533	+7, -0.655
42	Connecticut	74.329	4-3	67.373	+1, -1.649
43	Florida St	73.933	3-4	73.201	-6, -2.703
44	Iowa St	73.821	5-3	67.463	+9, +0.614
45	South Florida	73.701	5-2	62.768	-26, -6.540
46	Kansas	73.642	5-2	65.895	-8, -2.935
47	Washington	73.568	3-5	77.443	-3, -2.409
48	Michigan St	73.504	4-4	69.282	+2, -1.111
49	Wisconsin	73.115	5-2	69.746	+0, -1.802
50	Michigan	72.432	5-3	65.902	-9, -3.987
51	Air Force	72.315	4-4	64.818	+6, -0.128
52	Virginia	72.219	3-4	72.079	-1, -2.007
53	Navy	72.060	6-2	64.857	+2, -0.540
54	Arizona St	71.939	4-3	65.529	-7, -3.163
55	Wake Forest	71.670	4-4	70.043	+5, -0.123
56	Rutgers	71.318	5-2	57.602	+9, +0.373
57	Mississippi St	71.280	3-5	69.822	+5, -0.127
58	Texas A&M	70.771	4-3	66.741	+26, +4.606
59	Missouri	70.672	4-3	68.907	-5, -2.417
60	Minnesota	70.261	4-4	72.368	-4, -2.253
61	Kansas St	70.003	5-3	66.081	+5, -0.774
62	Duke	69.711	4-3	64.462	-4, -2.189
63	North Carolina	69.450	4-3	65.510	+1, -1.698
64	Northern Illinois	69.326	4-3	63.004	-12, -3.957
65	Temple	69.218	5-2	62.350	+11, +1.618
66	Troy	68.845	5-2	65.744	+3, -1.314
67	Nevada	68.458	4-3	66.056	+7, +0.547
68	Purdue	68.212	3-5	69.100	-1, -2.521
69	Tulsa	67.899	4-3	62.408	-10, -3.993
70	Marshall	67.846	5-3	66.706	+2, -0.593
71	Baylor	67.650	3-4	68.837	-1, -1.651
72	Southern Miss	67.134	5-3	60.646	+3, -0.564
73	Ohio U.	66.995	5-3	63.959	-12, -4.459
74	Idaho	66.887	6-2	65.508	-11, -4.463
75	Bowling Green	66.589	3-5	69.437	-4, -2.260
76	San Diego St	66.442	3-4	67.059	+13, +1.775
77	North Carolina St	66.032	3-4	64.408	+2, -0.810
78	Colorado St	65.667	3-5	70.948	-10, -4.786
79	Louisville	65.394	2-5	71.529	+4, -0.948
80	Arkansas St	65.332	2-4	62.461	-3, -1.940
81	Indiana	64.832	4-4	64.862	+0, -1.563
82	Western Michigan	64.822	4-4	64.952	-4, -2.412
83	East Carolina	64.629	4-3	64.029	+3, -0.990
84	Central Florida	64.334	4-3	60.915	+8, -0.014
85	SMU	64.276	3-4	68.845	-3, -2.071
86	Colorado	64.238	2-5	70.949	-13, -3.937
87	UTEP	64.136	3-4	67.634	+6, +0.084
88	Louisiana-Monroe	63.876	4-3	65.545	-8, -2.803
89	Maryland	63.781	2-6	70.487	+6, +0.174
90	Middle Tennessee St	63.765	4-3	63.821	+1, -0.625
91	Kent St	63.739	4-4	62.719	+12, +2.176
92	Northwestern	63.708	5-3	60.487	-7, -1.972
93	Louisiana Tech	63.140	3-4	61.278	+1, -0.897
94	Buffalo	63.073	3-5	65.347	+4, +0.552
95	Syracuse	63.068	3-4	65.548	-5, -1.326
96	San Jose St	62.717	1-5	74.038	-8, -2.040
97	Utah St	62.620	2-5	67.178	+2, +0.200
98	Florida Atlantic	62.202	2-4	66.145	+3, +0.035
99	Wyoming	61.989	4-3	64.482	-3, -1.500
100	Vanderbilt	61.686	2-6	65.511	+5, +1.045
101	Toledo	61.047	4-4	65.051	-14, -4.050
102	Alabama-Birmingham	60.776	2-5	66.650	-2, -1.398
103	UNLV	60.510	3-5	63.867	+1, -0.629
104	Illinois	59.919	1-6	69.813	+2, -0.348
105	Hawaii	59.834	2-5	66.876	-3, -1.944
106	Memphis	58.205	2-5	63.975	+4, -0.118
107	Army	57.257	3-5	62.201	+4, -1.065
108	Washington St	57.097	1-6	74.802	+1, -1.719
109	North Texas	56.750	1-6	66.514	-2, -2.840
110	Louisiana-Lafayette	56.568	4-3	61.324	-13, -6.256
111	Miami OH	55.941	0-8	73.579	+3, -0.124
112	Florida Int'l	55.450	1-6	67.674	-4, -3.793
113	Akron	55.370	1-6	65.507	-1, -2.466
114	Tulane	54.302	2-5	65.096	-1, -2.997
115	Ball St	53.504	1-7	62.849	+0, -1.917
116	New Mexico St	52.050	3-5	61.377	+0, -0.478
117	Eastern Michigan	50.048	0-7	64.770	+0, -0.403
118	New Mexico	47.006	0-7	65.594	+2, -1.104
119	Rice	46.143	0-8	68.291	+0, -2.031
120	Western Kentucky	43.577	0-7	64.802	-2, -4.874