Sunday, October 25, 2009

2009 Week 8 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 8 (games played thru 24-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

In a week with few games between top teams and several closer than expected games, there wasn't huge movement in the top-10 but the top teams did come back and the top-5 are now within 3.5 ratings points where it was 6 points last week.

The big reason for this is Alabama squeaking by Tennessee which dropped them over 4 ratings points, but they managed to hold on to #1 because of their big lead, but also because Florida squandered a chance to move up with their own closer than expected win over Mississippi State, Cincinnati having to play a weak Louisville, and Boise State having to play a weak Hawaii.  Texas too could have moved up some, but was hurt big time when prior opponent Texas Tech, favored by 21 at home over Texas A&M, lost by 22.  Texas's two best games are now against a 4-3 Oklahoma and a 5-3 Texas Tech and this is reflected in their schedule strength being #50 at 68.484.  For reference Washington is rated the #1 schedule at 77.443.

Two teams that did take advantage of their situations to move up were TCU and Oregon.  TCU played BYU in one of the few games pitting top teams against each other and won handily setting themselves up well for an undefeated season, but also move them up 4 spots to #5 in the rankings.  Oregon continues to look good after their season opening loss to Boise State walloping Washington to move up to #7 in the rankings which puts them now ahead of next weeks opponent USC.

But the biggest movers in the top-25 though were Pittsburgh jumping 17 spots to #18 as South Florida shrinks away after their strong start, and Oklahoma State also jumping 17 spots to #23 due in part to prior opponent Texas A&M's big upset noted above.

Last, just because they keep pulling them out and deserve a mention, Iowa moves up 1 spot to #11 after yet another close win.  One might argue that they should be in the top-10 as one of just 7 remaining undefeated teams, but give that Vegas has had them as underdogs in 3 games this year (including their last 2) and my computer has picked all those games right against the spread and picked the "upset" in the last 2, I think they are probably in the right spot.

As noted above, we still have 7 undefeated teams left, and all 7 are now projected to finish that way with TCU and Boise State the most likely.  Check out the season projections to see all the details.

Even with the closer than expected games, the computer did ok going 30-24-2 against the spread and did quite well straight up going 46-10 while Vegas went 42-13.  Most of the upsets the computer picked came through.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
90.720
8-0
71.761
+0, -4.473
2
Florida
88.548
7-0
70.478
+1, -1.756
3
Cincinnati
87.562
7-0
66.333
-1, -2.947
4
Boise St
87.362
7-0
67.478
+0, -2.114
5
TCU
87.239
7-0
68.999
+4, +1.280
6
Texas
86.431
7-0
68.484
-1, -3.032
7
Oregon
86.004
6-1
73.447
+3, +0.096
8
Virginia Tech
84.857
5-2
76.571
-1, -2.298
9
Southern Cal
84.220
6-1
72.565
-1, -2.228
10
Oklahoma
83.853
4-3
69.132
+1, -1.009
11
Iowa
82.515
8-0
73.472
+1, -1.304
12
Georgia Tech
82.151
7-1
74.182
+3, -0.432
13
LSU
81.491
6-1
71.197
+3, +0.377
14
Clemson
81.308
4-3
74.394
+6, +1.124
15
Penn State
80.990
7-1
64.928
+8, +1.790
16
Arizona
80.667
5-2
74.665
+1, -0.153
17
Miami FL
80.438
5-2
74.495
-3, -2.390
18
Pittsburgh
79.093
7-1
67.628
+17, +1.559
19
California
78.894
5-2
70.291
+2, -1.147
20
Ohio State
78.641
6-2
68.083
+4, -0.455
21
Mississippi
78.533
5-2
67.615
+9, +0.724
22
Stanford
78.445
5-3
71.267
+5, +0.144
23
Oklahoma St
78.322
6-1
64.067
+17, +1.857
24
Tennessee
78.272
3-4
72.128
+5, +0.363
25
Oregon St
78.146
4-3
72.477
+0, -0.899
26
Arkansas
77.837
3-4
76.868
-8, -2.841
27
Utah
77.661
6-1
68.318
-5, -1.963
28
Texas Tech
76.625
5-3
64.602
-22,-11.321
29
Central Michigan
76.532
7-1
62.796
+13, +0.324
30
Nebraska
76.421
4-3
68.725
-17, -6.751
31
Fresno St
76.336
4-3
68.912
-5, -2.402
32
Kentucky
76.120
4-3
72.683
+0, -1.529
33
Notre Dame
75.894
5-2
72.301
-5, -2.039
34
South Carolina
75.265
6-2
70.384
-3, -2.502
35
Houston
75.137
6-1
64.438
+4, -1.410
36
Auburn
75.034
5-3
71.314
-2, -2.514
37
Brigham Young
74.984
6-2
68.946
-4, -2.599
38
West Virginia
74.867
6-1
65.254
-2, -1.776
39
Boston College
74.712
5-3
69.747
+6, -0.626
40
Georgia
74.692
4-3
75.402
+6, -0.617
41
UCLA
74.333
3-4
76.533
+7, -0.655
42
Connecticut
74.329
4-3
67.373
+1, -1.649
43
Florida St
73.933
3-4
73.201
-6, -2.703
44
Iowa St
73.821
5-3
67.463
+9, +0.614
45
South Florida
73.701
5-2
62.768
-26, -6.540
46
Kansas
73.642
5-2
65.895
-8, -2.935
47
Washington
73.568
3-5
77.443
-3, -2.409
48
Michigan St
73.504
4-4
69.282
+2, -1.111
49
Wisconsin
73.115
5-2
69.746
+0, -1.802
50
Michigan
72.432
5-3
65.902
-9, -3.987
51
Air Force
72.315
4-4
64.818
+6, -0.128
52
Virginia
72.219
3-4
72.079
-1, -2.007
53
Navy
72.060
6-2
64.857
+2, -0.540
54
Arizona St
71.939
4-3
65.529
-7, -3.163
55
Wake Forest
71.670
4-4
70.043
+5, -0.123
56
Rutgers
71.318
5-2
57.602
+9, +0.373
57
Mississippi St
71.280
3-5
69.822
+5, -0.127
58
Texas A&M
70.771
4-3
66.741
+26, +4.606
59
Missouri
70.672
4-3
68.907
-5, -2.417
60
Minnesota
70.261
4-4
72.368
-4, -2.253
61
Kansas St
70.003
5-3
66.081
+5, -0.774
62
Duke
69.711
4-3
64.462
-4, -2.189
63
North Carolina
69.450
4-3
65.510
+1, -1.698
64
Northern Illinois
69.326
4-3
63.004
-12, -3.957
65
Temple
69.218
5-2
62.350
+11, +1.618
66
Troy
68.845
5-2
65.744
+3, -1.314
67
Nevada
68.458
4-3
66.056
+7, +0.547
68
Purdue
68.212
3-5
69.100
-1, -2.521
69
Tulsa
67.899
4-3
62.408
-10, -3.993
70
Marshall
67.846
5-3
66.706
+2, -0.593
71
Baylor
67.650
3-4
68.837
-1, -1.651
72
Southern Miss
67.134
5-3
60.646
+3, -0.564
73
Ohio U.
66.995
5-3
63.959
-12, -4.459
74
Idaho
66.887
6-2
65.508
-11, -4.463
75
Bowling Green
66.589
3-5
69.437
-4, -2.260
76
San Diego St
66.442
3-4
67.059
+13, +1.775
77
North Carolina St
66.032
3-4
64.408
+2, -0.810
78
Colorado St
65.667
3-5
70.948
-10, -4.786
79
Louisville
65.394
2-5
71.529
+4, -0.948
80
Arkansas St
65.332
2-4
62.461
-3, -1.940
81
Indiana
64.832
4-4
64.862
+0, -1.563
82
Western Michigan
64.822
4-4
64.952
-4, -2.412
83
East Carolina
64.629
4-3
64.029
+3, -0.990
84
Central Florida
64.334
4-3
60.915
+8, -0.014
85
SMU
64.276
3-4
68.845
-3, -2.071
86
Colorado
64.238
2-5
70.949
-13, -3.937
87
UTEP
64.136
3-4
67.634
+6, +0.084
88
Louisiana-Monroe
63.876
4-3
65.545
-8, -2.803
89
Maryland
63.781
2-6
70.487
+6, +0.174
90
Middle Tennessee St
63.765
4-3
63.821
+1, -0.625
91
Kent St
63.739
4-4
62.719
+12, +2.176
92
Northwestern
63.708
5-3
60.487
-7, -1.972
93
Louisiana Tech
63.140
3-4
61.278
+1, -0.897
94
Buffalo
63.073
3-5
65.347
+4, +0.552
95
Syracuse
63.068
3-4
65.548
-5, -1.326
96
San Jose St
62.717
1-5
74.038
-8, -2.040
97
Utah St
62.620
2-5
67.178
+2, +0.200
98
Florida Atlantic
62.202
2-4
66.145
+3, +0.035
99
Wyoming
61.989
4-3
64.482
-3, -1.500
100
Vanderbilt
61.686
2-6
65.511
+5, +1.045
101
Toledo
61.047
4-4
65.051
-14, -4.050
102
Alabama-Birmingham
60.776
2-5
66.650
-2, -1.398
103
UNLV
60.510
3-5
63.867
+1, -0.629
104
Illinois
59.919
1-6
69.813
+2, -0.348
105
Hawaii
59.834
2-5
66.876
-3, -1.944
106
Memphis
58.205
2-5
63.975
+4, -0.118
107
Army
57.257
3-5
62.201
+4, -1.065
108
Washington St
57.097
1-6
74.802
+1, -1.719
109
North Texas
56.750
1-6
66.514
-2, -2.840
110
Louisiana-Lafayette
56.568
4-3
61.324
-13, -6.256
111
Miami OH
55.941
0-8
73.579
+3, -0.124
112
Florida Int'l
55.450
1-6
67.674
-4, -3.793
113
Akron
55.370
1-6
65.507
-1, -2.466
114
Tulane
54.302
2-5
65.096
-1, -2.997
115
Ball St
53.504
1-7
62.849
+0, -1.917
116
New Mexico St
52.050
3-5
61.377
+0, -0.478
117
Eastern Michigan
50.048
0-7
64.770
+0, -0.403
118
New Mexico
47.006
0-7
65.594
+2, -1.104
119
Rice
46.143
0-8
68.291
+0, -2.031
120
Western Kentucky
43.577
0-7
64.802
-2, -4.874