Saturday, October 31, 2009

2009 Week 9 College Football Preview

Week 9 has already started and the computer is doing poorly going 1-2 in the games thus far.  But it is early and last weeks highlighted games went 4-1 against the spread getting TCU, Iowa, Boston College, and Oregon State and only missing on Auburn.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

#11 Iowa hosts #81 Indiana in what shouldn't be a close game, the spread being 17 and the computer picking Iowa by more at 20.7, but they've managed to make several other games closer than expected, particularly in 3 of the last 4 weeks.  There is only 1 way these teams are separated by 2 degrees so not a terribly strong pick either.

Another undefeated team, #3 Cincinnati visits #95 Syracuse as a 14.5 point pick but the computer likes Cincinnati by 21.5.  Like Iowa, Cincinnati doesn't seem to be getting the credit they deserve and this game shouldn't test them for the win, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep rolling.  Just 1 way they are separated by 2 degrees though through South Florida.

In what will likely be #6 Texas' last big test, they visit #23 Oklahoma State with the Vegas line at 9.5 while the computer picks them by only 5.1.  With only 1 way the teams have 2 degrees of separation (through Missouri) it isn't the strongest pick so especially being on the road for Texas, Oklahoma State may be the pick.

While #40 Georgia may not have the best record this year, you "throw the records out" when they meet #2 Florida and while they are getting a surprising 16 points, the computer nearly agrees pegging the number at 13.9.  Florida has had some issues with games against good teams being closer than expected and there are 3 ways there are 2 degrees of separation (Tennessee, LSU, and Arkansas) so it should be a pretty strong pick.

In what could be a very interesting game and likely decide the Pac-10 champ, #9 USC visits #7 Oregon.  Yes, that's right, the computer has Oregon rated higher (loss to Boise State vs loss to Washington) and couple that with the game being in Oregon and the computer picks the upset (Vegas line USC by 3.5) by 4.8.  Now, before you run to the bank, one might consider the Washington game an aberation (backup QB played poorly) and if that game is omitted from the results USC is ranked above Oregon but the pick would still be Oregon by about 1.  The teams are separated by 2 games in 3 ways though so a pretty strong pick.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.