The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games. These games all picked by the current computer ratings located here.
Denver takes their undefeated record on the road to Baltimore where they are again underdogs just like Iowa has been repeated in the college game. The computer likes them by 3 and we'll see if they can keep it going.
On the other side of the coin, Tennessee has been favored 3 times this year despite their 0-6 record and is favored again this week hosting Jacksonville. The computer likes the upset by 1.5.
Brett Favre gets to visit Green Bay this time around coming off their first loss of the season and finds his team 3.5 point underdogs. The computer agrees Green Bay should be favored, but only by 2.1.
And in the center of the sporting world this weekend, Philadelphia hosts the Giants and is a 1 point underdog but the computer picks the Eagles by 0.5. Should be a good game.
The computer had a great week going 10-3 coming off a couple good weeks
going 10-4 and 8-5-1 the prior two weeks. If you are interested in
additional details
on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.
Enjoy the games.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
2009 Week 9 Preliminary College Rankings
I don't ordinarily like to post rankings before having all the data, but since all the FBS games are done and I have most of the FCS games and it appears we will have a new #1, I wanted to get at least what will likely be the new top-25 in the computer's rankings posted. I preface the rankings and comments below with the statement that they are not final and could change a bit, but I doubt much.
Yes, there is a new #1 and it is Florida moving up from #2. They finally played and won like a #1 team should handling a decent Georgia team, and couple that with prior opponents Arkansas and LSU winning big and prior opponents Tennessee and Troy doing better than expected, they make the move.
Perhaps a bigger surprise is that there is a new #2 in Texas also passing idle Alabama. They handled a very good Oklahoma State and prior opponent Texas Tech had a better than expected win.
Alabama falls to #3 and while they were idle, they lost ratings points due to prior opponents Virginia Tech, Mississippi, and Kentucky all losing when expected to win.
And with their impressive win over USC, Oregon moves to #4 passing up undefeateds Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU. How can Oregon be ahead of Boise State you might ask? Well, the game was in Boise and very early in the season making it not as bad a result as it otherwise might be, and more importantly Oregon has faced and beat far better competition.
Another notable movers is LSU moving to #9 a week ahead of their visiting Alabama in the game that will most likely decide the SEC West.
The computer also had a very good week going 34-19 against the spread and 40-13 picking winners versus Vegas's 38-15. The lock of the week, Oregon plus the points over USC also came through.
I'll post the full/official rankings on the web-site soon and will blog again here too.
Yes, there is a new #1 and it is Florida moving up from #2. They finally played and won like a #1 team should handling a decent Georgia team, and couple that with prior opponents Arkansas and LSU winning big and prior opponents Tennessee and Troy doing better than expected, they make the move.
Perhaps a bigger surprise is that there is a new #2 in Texas also passing idle Alabama. They handled a very good Oklahoma State and prior opponent Texas Tech had a better than expected win.
Alabama falls to #3 and while they were idle, they lost ratings points due to prior opponents Virginia Tech, Mississippi, and Kentucky all losing when expected to win.
And with their impressive win over USC, Oregon moves to #4 passing up undefeateds Cincinnati, Boise State, and TCU. How can Oregon be ahead of Boise State you might ask? Well, the game was in Boise and very early in the season making it not as bad a result as it otherwise might be, and more importantly Oregon has faced and beat far better competition.
Another notable movers is LSU moving to #9 a week ahead of their visiting Alabama in the game that will most likely decide the SEC West.
The computer also had a very good week going 34-19 against the spread and 40-13 picking winners versus Vegas's 38-15. The lock of the week, Oregon plus the points over USC also came through.
I'll post the full/official rankings on the web-site soon and will blog again here too.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Florida | 89.293 | 8-0 | 71.284 | +1, +0.744 |
| 2 | Texas | 88.880 | 8-0 | 69.442 | +4, +2.449 |
| 3 | Alabama | 88.544 | 8-0 | 70.382 | -2, -2.176 |
| 4 | Oregon | 87.871 | 7-1 | 73.498 | +3, +1.867 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 87.272 | 8-0 | 66.489 | -2, -0.290 |
| 6 | Boise St | 86.681 | 8-0 | 65.391 | -2, -0.682 |
| 7 | TCU | 86.331 | 8-0 | 68.212 | -2, -0.908 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 82.362 | 5-3 | 67.995 | +2, -1.492 |
| 9 | LSU | 81.772 | 7-1 | 68.888 | +4, +0.280 |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 81.650 | 5-3 | 75.502 | -2, -3.207 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 81.614 | 8-1 | 72.896 | +1, -0.537 |
| 12 | Southern Cal | 81.535 | 6-2 | 74.138 | -3, -2.685 |
| 13 | Clemson | 81.287 | 5-3 | 70.526 | +1, -0.022 |
| 14 | Iowa | 80.781 | 9-0 | 70.429 | -3, -1.735 |
| 15 | Penn State | 80.234 | 8-1 | 64.597 | +0, -0.756 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 79.637 | 7-1 | 67.620 | +2, +0.544 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 79.612 | 4-4 | 71.421 | +7, +1.339 |
| 18 | Arizona | 79.377 | 5-2 | 73.214 | -2, -1.290 |
| 19 | Texas Tech | 79.183 | 6-3 | 66.153 | +9, +2.557 |
| 20 | Miami FL | 78.927 | 6-2 | 73.599 | -3, -1.511 |
| 21 | California | 78.407 | 6-2 | 70.921 | -2, -0.487 |
| 22 | Ohio State | 77.975 | 7-2 | 65.597 | -2, -0.667 |
| 23 | Stanford | 77.886 | 5-3 | 70.698 | -1, -0.559 |
| 24 | Oklahoma St | 77.414 | 6-2 | 67.040 | -1, -0.909 |
| 25 | Oregon St | 77.399 | 5-3 | 71.533 | +0, -0.748 |
Week 9 College Early Game Review
It is still very early with many games to play, but after a slow 1-2 start in the mid-week games, the computer's picks have gone 8-3 against the spread in the early games today.
The misses were:
I may post another update later.
The misses were:
- Ohio/Ball State - The computer had Ohio by 10.5, they won by only 3, spread was 6.
- Florida State/North Carolina State - Similarly, the computer had FSU by 10.9 but they won by only 3 with a 7.5 point spread.
- New Mexico State/Ohio State - Ohio State did just enough to cover the 44.5 point spread so the computer missed.
- LA-Lafayette/Florida Int'l - The computer pick was Florida Int'l by 1.9 and they won by 3 so Lafayette covered the 5 point spread.
- Iowa/Indiana - It wasn't pretty, but Iowa finally covered the 17 point spread so the computer's pick by 20.7 was on the right side. Iowa was a best pick this week as well.
- Northern Illinois/Akron - The computer had NI by 17 covering the 9.5 point spread and the final was exactly a 17 point spread.
- Cincinnati/Syracuse - The computer liked Cincinnati by 21.5 covering the 14.5 spread and they won by 21. Two in a row near perfect picks. And this pick was one of this weeks best picks.
- Wisconsin/Purdue - The computers 7.9 pick had Wisconsin covering the 6.5 point spread and the 37 point win easily did that.
- Auburn/Mississippi - The computer did not pick the upset, but did have Ole Miss by only 0.5, but that meant it got the pick against the 5.5 point spread correct.
- Baylor/Nebraska - The computer had Nebraska by 5.8, short of the 14 point spread so the 10 point win had Baylor covering as predicted. This was also a best pick this week.
- Rutgers/Connecticut - Again, didn't pick the upset (UConn by 6) but with an 8 point spread the upset did get the pick correct.
I may post another update later.
2009 Week 9 College Football Preview
Week 9 has already started and the computer is doing poorly going 1-2 in the games thus far. But it is early and last weeks highlighted games
went 4-1 against the spread getting TCU, Iowa, Boston College, and Oregon State and only missing on Auburn. In any case, here
are some of the interesting games of the weekend. Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.
#11 Iowa hosts #81 Indiana in what shouldn't be a close game, the spread being 17 and the computer picking Iowa by more at 20.7, but they've managed to make several other games closer than expected, particularly in 3 of the last 4 weeks. There is only 1 way these teams are separated by 2 degrees so not a terribly strong pick either.
Another undefeated team, #3 Cincinnati visits #95 Syracuse as a 14.5 point pick but the computer likes Cincinnati by 21.5. Like Iowa, Cincinnati doesn't seem to be getting the credit they deserve and this game shouldn't test them for the win, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep rolling. Just 1 way they are separated by 2 degrees though through South Florida.
In what will likely be #6 Texas' last big test, they visit #23 Oklahoma State with the Vegas line at 9.5 while the computer picks them by only 5.1. With only 1 way the teams have 2 degrees of separation (through Missouri) it isn't the strongest pick so especially being on the road for Texas, Oklahoma State may be the pick.
While #40 Georgia may not have the best record this year, you "throw the records out" when they meet #2 Florida and while they are getting a surprising 16 points, the computer nearly agrees pegging the number at 13.9. Florida has had some issues with games against good teams being closer than expected and there are 3 ways there are 2 degrees of separation (Tennessee, LSU, and Arkansas) so it should be a pretty strong pick.
In what could be a very interesting game and likely decide the Pac-10 champ, #9 USC visits #7 Oregon. Yes, that's right, the computer has Oregon rated higher (loss to Boise State vs loss to Washington) and couple that with the game being in Oregon and the computer picks the upset (Vegas line USC by 3.5) by 4.8. Now, before you run to the bank, one might consider the Washington game an aberation (backup QB played poorly) and if that game is omitted from the results USC is ranked above Oregon but the pick would still be Oregon by about 1. The teams are separated by 2 games in 3 ways though so a pretty strong pick.
If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.
Enjoy the games.
#11 Iowa hosts #81 Indiana in what shouldn't be a close game, the spread being 17 and the computer picking Iowa by more at 20.7, but they've managed to make several other games closer than expected, particularly in 3 of the last 4 weeks. There is only 1 way these teams are separated by 2 degrees so not a terribly strong pick either.
Another undefeated team, #3 Cincinnati visits #95 Syracuse as a 14.5 point pick but the computer likes Cincinnati by 21.5. Like Iowa, Cincinnati doesn't seem to be getting the credit they deserve and this game shouldn't test them for the win, but it will be interesting to see if they can keep rolling. Just 1 way they are separated by 2 degrees though through South Florida.
In what will likely be #6 Texas' last big test, they visit #23 Oklahoma State with the Vegas line at 9.5 while the computer picks them by only 5.1. With only 1 way the teams have 2 degrees of separation (through Missouri) it isn't the strongest pick so especially being on the road for Texas, Oklahoma State may be the pick.
While #40 Georgia may not have the best record this year, you "throw the records out" when they meet #2 Florida and while they are getting a surprising 16 points, the computer nearly agrees pegging the number at 13.9. Florida has had some issues with games against good teams being closer than expected and there are 3 ways there are 2 degrees of separation (Tennessee, LSU, and Arkansas) so it should be a pretty strong pick.
In what could be a very interesting game and likely decide the Pac-10 champ, #9 USC visits #7 Oregon. Yes, that's right, the computer has Oregon rated higher (loss to Boise State vs loss to Washington) and couple that with the game being in Oregon and the computer picks the upset (Vegas line USC by 3.5) by 4.8. Now, before you run to the bank, one might consider the Washington game an aberation (backup QB played poorly) and if that game is omitted from the results USC is ranked above Oregon but the pick would still be Oregon by about 1. The teams are separated by 2 games in 3 ways though so a pretty strong pick.
If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.
Enjoy the games.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
2009 Week 8 NFL and Week 9 College Picks Posted
The picks for this weeks games are now posted for the NFL and College.
In the NFL, the computer continues to like Denver picking them in the upset to beat Baltimore, and it also likes Philly to upset the Giants but that one is far closer according to Vegas.
In college, the computer likes Oregon to beat USC and Florida over Georgia, although perhaps not by as much as you'd expect.
If you want more details, click the links above, or if you want picks against the spread, best picks, locks, and other information on the teams, consider signing up for the weekly newsletter. The computer had a decent week last week going 30-24-2 for college and a very good week going 10-3 in the NFL. This weeks edition goes out tonight.
In the NFL, the computer continues to like Denver picking them in the upset to beat Baltimore, and it also likes Philly to upset the Giants but that one is far closer according to Vegas.
In college, the computer likes Oregon to beat USC and Florida over Georgia, although perhaps not by as much as you'd expect.
If you want more details, click the links above, or if you want picks against the spread, best picks, locks, and other information on the teams, consider signing up for the weekly newsletter. The computer had a decent week last week going 30-24-2 for college and a very good week going 10-3 in the NFL. This weeks edition goes out tonight.
Monday, October 26, 2009
2009 Week 7 NFL Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 7
of the NFL season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.
New Orleans is once again projected to finish undefeated at 45% but a 1 loss season is close behind at 41%. Denver is close behind but still has a 13% chance of staying unblemished. Interestingly Indianapolis is projected to have 2 losses but does have a 5% chance of finishing with 16 wins. This is in large part due to having to play New England and go to Baltimore in addition to playing Denver. Denver also goes to Baltimore but already beat New England.
If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and the Jets. The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, one of Dallas or the Giants, along with wildcards being 2 of Atlanta, Giants/Dallas, and Green Bay.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
New Orleans is once again projected to finish undefeated at 45% but a 1 loss season is close behind at 41%. Denver is close behind but still has a 13% chance of staying unblemished. Interestingly Indianapolis is projected to have 2 losses but does have a 5% chance of finishing with 16 wins. This is in large part due to having to play New England and go to Baltimore in addition to playing Denver. Denver also goes to Baltimore but already beat New England.
If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and the Jets. The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, one of Dallas or the Giants, along with wildcards being 2 of Atlanta, Giants/Dallas, and Green Bay.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| New Orleans | 16-0 | 45.2 | 0.0 | 40.5 |
| Denver | 15-1 | 40.1 | 13.0 | 33.5 |
| Indianapolis | 14-2 | 28.6 | 18.6 | 25.5 |
| Minnesota | 12-4 | 29.3 | 19.6 | 25.4 |
| Arizona | 12-4 | 30.0 | 18.6 | 26.6 |
| Cincinnati | 11-5 | 29.6 | 21.7 | 23.7 |
| Atlanta | 10-6 | 30.7 | 27.4 | 18.7 |
| Dallas | 10-6 | 29.5 | 27.1 | 18.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 29.1 | 26.0 | 19.2 |
| NY Giants | 10-6 | 29.8 | 24.0 | 21.6 |
| New England | 10-6 | 28.1 | 23.5 | 20.8 |
| Green Bay | 10-6 | 27.0 | 21.2 | 22.1 |
| NY Jets | 10-6 | 29.1 | 17.8 | 26.9 |
| San Diego | 9-7 | 29.3 | 20.1 | 25.0 |
| San Francisco | 9-7 | 26.2 | 18.4 | 24.0 |
| Baltimore | 9-7 | 25.6 | 16.9 | 25.1 |
| Houston | 8-8 | 27.5 | 25.4 | 18.3 |
| Chicago | 8-8 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 16.7 |
| Philadelphia | 8-8 | 27.2 | 23.3 | 20.1 |
| Miami | 8-8 | 26.2 | 18.8 | 23.7 |
| Jacksonville | 8-8 | 24.8 | 16.9 | 24.3 |
| Buffalo | 7-9 | 27.1 | 21.1 | 22.3 |
| Seattle | 7-9 | 26.8 | 20.3 | 22.8 |
| Oakland | 5-11 | 31.4 | 21.5 | 25.2 |
| Cleveland | 5-11 | 26.2 | 16.7 | 26.2 |
| Tennessee | 4-12 | 25.8 | 17.9 | 24.5 |
| Carolina | 3-13 | 41.8 | 36.3 | 6.1 |
| Detroit | 3-13 | 31.8 | 26.6 | 19.5 |
| Washington | 2-14 | 56.5 | 35.2 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 2-14 | 33.1 | 32.5 | 13.2 |
| St Louis | 2-14 | 32.2 | 20.9 | 27.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 0-16 | 53.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 |
2009 Week 7 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary
Week 7 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted
in a few changes in the ratings. The ratings are below but can always
be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.
And then there were 3. Denver was going to stay undefeated with the week off, but there were 3 others playing to stay that way and only 2 made it. Indianapolis did so easily, New Orleans had to come back at the end, and Minnesota was hurt by turnovers. The result is the top 3 stay the same but there are some changes behind them.
Minnesota drops all the way to #10 and Pittsburgh move to #8, and New England, Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Jets also benefited from some teams dropping.
The computer did great picking games this week going 10-3 against the spread, a great 5-1 on best picks, and there were no locks this week. Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter. Full prediction performance here.
And then there were 3. Denver was going to stay undefeated with the week off, but there were 3 others playing to stay that way and only 2 made it. Indianapolis did so easily, New Orleans had to come back at the end, and Minnesota was hurt by turnovers. The result is the top 3 stay the same but there are some changes behind them.
Minnesota drops all the way to #10 and Pittsburgh move to #8, and New England, Arizona, Cincinnati, and the Jets also benefited from some teams dropping.
The computer did great picking games this week going 10-3 against the spread, a great 5-1 on best picks, and there were no locks this week. Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter. Full prediction performance here.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | New Orleans | 95.286 | 6-0 | 80.564 | +0, +0.134 |
| 2 | Indianapolis | 91.375 | 6-0 | 79.911 | +0, -0.176 |
| 3 | Denver | 91.311 | 6-0 | 81.651 | +0, +0.804 |
| 4 | New England | 87.330 | 5-2 | 80.762 | +1, -0.709 |
| 5 | Arizona | 86.642 | 4-2 | 83.106 | +3, +1.457 |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 86.448 | 5-2 | 83.347 | +7, +2.495 |
| 7 | NY Jets | 85.396 | 4-3 | 82.798 | +5, +1.116 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 85.302 | 5-2 | 79.335 | +6, +1.596 |
| 9 | Baltimore | 85.279 | 3-3 | 81.377 | -2, +0.050 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 85.161 | 6-1 | 79.823 | -4, -1.744 |
| 11 | Atlanta | 84.628 | 4-2 | 81.997 | -7, -3.544 |
| 12 | Green Bay | 84.275 | 4-2 | 78.577 | +4, +1.137 |
| 13 | Dallas | 84.231 | 4-2 | 78.169 | +4, +2.551 |
| 14 | San Francisco | 83.358 | 3-3 | 81.374 | -4, -1.323 |
| 15 | Miami | 83.240 | 2-4 | 85.437 | +0, -0.006 |
| 16 | NY Giants | 82.891 | 5-2 | 78.629 | -5, -1.400 |
| 17 | Chicago | 82.306 | 3-3 | 82.980 | -8, -2.531 |
| 18 | Houston | 82.270 | 4-3 | 80.982 | +2, +1.475 |
| 19 | San Diego | 82.220 | 3-3 | 81.757 | +0, +1.199 |
| 20 | Philadelphia | 80.365 | 4-2 | 74.675 | -2, -0.884 |
| 21 | Buffalo | 79.718 | 3-4 | 81.244 | +2, +1.005 |
| 22 | Seattle | 79.453 | 2-4 | 81.176 | -1, -0.276 |
| 23 | Jacksonville | 79.289 | 3-3 | 80.763 | -1, +0.550 |
| 24 | Cleveland | 75.687 | 1-6 | 85.785 | +0, -0.831 |
| 25 | Tennessee | 74.752 | 0-6 | 86.160 | +1, +0.537 |
| 26 | Oakland | 73.989 | 2-5 | 81.839 | -1, -0.742 |
| 27 | Detroit | 71.773 | 1-5 | 83.486 | +2, -0.503 |
| 28 | Carolina | 71.519 | 2-4 | 77.463 | -1, -1.194 |
| 29 | Kansas City | 71.419 | 1-6 | 79.223 | -1, -1.137 |
| 30 | St Louis | 70.088 | 0-7 | 82.071 | +0, +0.282 |
| 31 | Washington | 68.589 | 2-5 | 73.186 | +0, -0.717 |
| 32 | Tampa Bay | 67.247 | 0-7 | 78.806 | +0, +0.136 |
2009 Week 7 NFL Preliminary Review
Monday night football always sort of ruins getting my NFL ratings and rankings out and publishing a summary of the week. Do I wait or do I publish early? Since I'm a tad impatient, here is an early review of the week.
In the marquee game of the day, Minnesota let the computer down and turned the ball over letting Pittsburgh get points off turnovers in what otherwise should have been a closer game and perhaps a Minnesota win like the computer predicted. Oh well, at least the computer did well in the other games going 9-2 against the spread in the rest of the games. How did it do that?
As you'll see in the newsletter, tonight's pick is Philly by 8.9 so if the line is in the 7-7.5 range, Philly is the pick.
In the marquee game of the day, Minnesota let the computer down and turned the ball over letting Pittsburgh get points off turnovers in what otherwise should have been a closer game and perhaps a Minnesota win like the computer predicted. Oh well, at least the computer did well in the other games going 9-2 against the spread in the rest of the games. How did it do that?
- Buffalo visited Carolina and not only got the pick right of Buffalo plus the points but came through for the computer's outright win pick as well.
- Atlanta visited Dallas but did not come through giving up some big plays and the computer missed on the spread and upset.
- Indianapolis blew out St. Louis as expected, win and spread correct.
- Green Bay played well in blowing out Cleveland, miss on spread but win correct.
- The computer didn't go so far as to pick the Arizona upset, but did have the game a 2 point game rather than the touchdown-plus line, spread correct.
- The computer did pick the Cincinnati upset, although not by 35, but spread and win correct.
- San Francisco couldn't pull out the win for the computer but did cover with the help of the 3.5 point line.
- New England blew out Tampa Bay as expect, win and spread correct.
- It didn't look good for much of the game, but New Orleans ended up covering making the computer right on the win and spread.
- San Diego easily covered, win and spread correct.
- A 6 point spread wasn't nearly enough as the Jets blew out Oakland, win and spread correct.
As you'll see in the newsletter, tonight's pick is Philly by 8.9 so if the line is in the 7-7.5 range, Philly is the pick.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
2009 Week 7 NFL Preview
The full predictions each week are at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-predictions but below is a discussion of some of the interesting games. These games all picked by the current computer ratings here.
Cincinnati hosts Chicago and at one point was favored by 1 but is now a 1 point underdog. With the computer picking Cincinnati by 2.1 this is becoming a stronger Cincinnati pick.
Vegas has been consistently over estimating Dallas this year (they are 2-3 in beating the spread) and my computer has taken advantage of that (4-1 against the spread in Dallas games this year) and has another pick against them, this time picking the outright upset against Atlanta where Vegas has Dallas a 5.5 point pick but the computer likes Atlanta by 3.5.
Other outright upsets the computer is picking include Buffalo, San Francisco, and in what could be the most interesting game of the week, the computer picks Minnesota to win (but only by 0.2) while the Vegas line has grown to Pittsburgh by 7. Hopefully it will be an entertaining game.
The computer is coming off a couple good weeks going 10-4 and 8-5-1 the past two weeks against the spread and 4-2-1 best picks and 2-1 locks last week. If you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.
Enjoy the games.
Cincinnati hosts Chicago and at one point was favored by 1 but is now a 1 point underdog. With the computer picking Cincinnati by 2.1 this is becoming a stronger Cincinnati pick.
Vegas has been consistently over estimating Dallas this year (they are 2-3 in beating the spread) and my computer has taken advantage of that (4-1 against the spread in Dallas games this year) and has another pick against them, this time picking the outright upset against Atlanta where Vegas has Dallas a 5.5 point pick but the computer likes Atlanta by 3.5.
Other outright upsets the computer is picking include Buffalo, San Francisco, and in what could be the most interesting game of the week, the computer picks Minnesota to win (but only by 0.2) while the Vegas line has grown to Pittsburgh by 7. Hopefully it will be an entertaining game.
The computer is coming off a couple good weeks going 10-4 and 8-5-1 the past two weeks against the spread and 4-2-1 best picks and 2-1 locks last week. If you are interested in additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this where you can subscribe to a weekly newsletter.
Enjoy the games.
2009 Week 8 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary
Ratings through week 8 (games played thru 24-Oct). These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.
In a week with few games between top teams and several closer than expected games, there wasn't huge movement in the top-10 but the top teams did come back and the top-5 are now within 3.5 ratings points where it was 6 points last week.
The big reason for this is Alabama squeaking by Tennessee which dropped them over 4 ratings points, but they managed to hold on to #1 because of their big lead, but also because Florida squandered a chance to move up with their own closer than expected win over Mississippi State, Cincinnati having to play a weak Louisville, and Boise State having to play a weak Hawaii. Texas too could have moved up some, but was hurt big time when prior opponent Texas Tech, favored by 21 at home over Texas A&M, lost by 22. Texas's two best games are now against a 4-3 Oklahoma and a 5-3 Texas Tech and this is reflected in their schedule strength being #50 at 68.484. For reference Washington is rated the #1 schedule at 77.443.
Two teams that did take advantage of their situations to move up were TCU and Oregon. TCU played BYU in one of the few games pitting top teams against each other and won handily setting themselves up well for an undefeated season, but also move them up 4 spots to #5 in the rankings. Oregon continues to look good after their season opening loss to Boise State walloping Washington to move up to #7 in the rankings which puts them now ahead of next weeks opponent USC.
But the biggest movers in the top-25 though were Pittsburgh jumping 17 spots to #18 as South Florida shrinks away after their strong start, and Oklahoma State also jumping 17 spots to #23 due in part to prior opponent Texas A&M's big upset noted above.
Last, just because they keep pulling them out and deserve a mention, Iowa moves up 1 spot to #11 after yet another close win. One might argue that they should be in the top-10 as one of just 7 remaining undefeated teams, but give that Vegas has had them as underdogs in 3 games this year (including their last 2) and my computer has picked all those games right against the spread and picked the "upset" in the last 2, I think they are probably in the right spot.
As noted above, we still have 7 undefeated teams left, and all 7 are now projected to finish that way with TCU and Boise State the most likely. Check out the season projections to see all the details.
Even with the closer than expected games, the computer did ok going 30-24-2 against the spread and did quite well straight up going 46-10 while Vegas went 42-13. Most of the upsets the computer picked came through. Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
In a week with few games between top teams and several closer than expected games, there wasn't huge movement in the top-10 but the top teams did come back and the top-5 are now within 3.5 ratings points where it was 6 points last week.
The big reason for this is Alabama squeaking by Tennessee which dropped them over 4 ratings points, but they managed to hold on to #1 because of their big lead, but also because Florida squandered a chance to move up with their own closer than expected win over Mississippi State, Cincinnati having to play a weak Louisville, and Boise State having to play a weak Hawaii. Texas too could have moved up some, but was hurt big time when prior opponent Texas Tech, favored by 21 at home over Texas A&M, lost by 22. Texas's two best games are now against a 4-3 Oklahoma and a 5-3 Texas Tech and this is reflected in their schedule strength being #50 at 68.484. For reference Washington is rated the #1 schedule at 77.443.
Two teams that did take advantage of their situations to move up were TCU and Oregon. TCU played BYU in one of the few games pitting top teams against each other and won handily setting themselves up well for an undefeated season, but also move them up 4 spots to #5 in the rankings. Oregon continues to look good after their season opening loss to Boise State walloping Washington to move up to #7 in the rankings which puts them now ahead of next weeks opponent USC.
But the biggest movers in the top-25 though were Pittsburgh jumping 17 spots to #18 as South Florida shrinks away after their strong start, and Oklahoma State also jumping 17 spots to #23 due in part to prior opponent Texas A&M's big upset noted above.
Last, just because they keep pulling them out and deserve a mention, Iowa moves up 1 spot to #11 after yet another close win. One might argue that they should be in the top-10 as one of just 7 remaining undefeated teams, but give that Vegas has had them as underdogs in 3 games this year (including their last 2) and my computer has picked all those games right against the spread and picked the "upset" in the last 2, I think they are probably in the right spot.
As noted above, we still have 7 undefeated teams left, and all 7 are now projected to finish that way with TCU and Boise State the most likely. Check out the season projections to see all the details.
Even with the closer than expected games, the computer did ok going 30-24-2 against the spread and did quite well straight up going 46-10 while Vegas went 42-13. Most of the upsets the computer picked came through. Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
| 1 |
Alabama |
90.720 |
8-0 |
71.761 |
+0, -4.473 |
| 2 |
Florida |
88.548 |
7-0 |
70.478 |
+1, -1.756 |
| 3 |
Cincinnati |
87.562 |
7-0 |
66.333 |
-1, -2.947 |
| 4 |
Boise St |
87.362 |
7-0 |
67.478 |
+0, -2.114 |
| 5 |
TCU |
87.239 |
7-0 |
68.999 |
+4, +1.280 |
| 6 |
Texas |
86.431 |
7-0 |
68.484 |
-1, -3.032 |
| 7 |
Oregon |
86.004 |
6-1 |
73.447 |
+3, +0.096 |
| 8 |
Virginia Tech |
84.857 |
5-2 |
76.571 |
-1, -2.298 |
| 9 |
Southern Cal |
84.220 |
6-1 |
72.565 |
-1, -2.228 |
| 10 |
Oklahoma |
83.853 |
4-3 |
69.132 |
+1, -1.009 |
| 11 |
Iowa |
82.515 |
8-0 |
73.472 |
+1, -1.304 |
| 12 |
Georgia Tech |
82.151 |
7-1 |
74.182 |
+3, -0.432 |
| 13 |
LSU |
81.491 |
6-1 |
71.197 |
+3, +0.377 |
| 14 |
Clemson |
81.308 |
4-3 |
74.394 |
+6, +1.124 |
| 15 |
Penn State |
80.990 |
7-1 |
64.928 |
+8, +1.790 |
| 16 |
Arizona |
80.667 |
5-2 |
74.665 |
+1, -0.153 |
| 17 |
Miami FL |
80.438 |
5-2 |
74.495 |
-3, -2.390 |
| 18 |
Pittsburgh |
79.093 |
7-1 |
67.628 |
+17, +1.559 |
| 19 |
California |
78.894 |
5-2 |
70.291 |
+2, -1.147 |
| 20 |
Ohio State |
78.641 |
6-2 |
68.083 |
+4, -0.455 |
| 21 |
Mississippi |
78.533 |
5-2 |
67.615 |
+9, +0.724 |
| 22 |
Stanford |
78.445 |
5-3 |
71.267 |
+5, +0.144 |
| 23 |
Oklahoma St |
78.322 |
6-1 |
64.067 |
+17, +1.857 |
| 24 |
Tennessee |
78.272 |
3-4 |
72.128 |
+5, +0.363 |
| 25 |
Oregon St |
78.146 |
4-3 |
72.477 |
+0, -0.899 |
| 26 |
Arkansas |
77.837 |
3-4 |
76.868 |
-8, -2.841 |
| 27 |
Utah |
77.661 |
6-1 |
68.318 |
-5, -1.963 |
| 28 |
Texas Tech |
76.625 |
5-3 |
64.602 |
-22,-11.321 |
| 29 |
Central Michigan |
76.532 |
7-1 |
62.796 |
+13, +0.324 |
| 30 |
Nebraska |
76.421 |
4-3 |
68.725 |
-17, -6.751 |
| 31 |
Fresno St |
76.336 |
4-3 |
68.912 |
-5, -2.402 |
| 32 |
Kentucky |
76.120 |
4-3 |
72.683 |
+0, -1.529 |
| 33 |
Notre Dame |
75.894 |
5-2 |
72.301 |
-5, -2.039 |
| 34 |
South Carolina |
75.265 |
6-2 |
70.384 |
-3, -2.502 |
| 35 |
Houston |
75.137 |
6-1 |
64.438 |
+4, -1.410 |
| 36 |
Auburn |
75.034 |
5-3 |
71.314 |
-2, -2.514 |
| 37 |
Brigham Young |
74.984 |
6-2 |
68.946 |
-4, -2.599 |
| 38 |
West Virginia |
74.867 |
6-1 |
65.254 |
-2, -1.776 |
| 39 |
Boston College |
74.712 |
5-3 |
69.747 |
+6, -0.626 |
| 40 |
Georgia |
74.692 |
4-3 |
75.402 |
+6, -0.617 |
| 41 |
UCLA |
74.333 |
3-4 |
76.533 |
+7, -0.655 |
| 42 |
Connecticut |
74.329 |
4-3 |
67.373 |
+1, -1.649 |
| 43 |
Florida St |
73.933 |
3-4 |
73.201 |
-6, -2.703 |
| 44 |
Iowa St |
73.821 |
5-3 |
67.463 |
+9, +0.614 |
| 45 |
South Florida |
73.701 |
5-2 |
62.768 |
-26, -6.540 |
| 46 |
Kansas |
73.642 |
5-2 |
65.895 |
-8, -2.935 |
| 47 |
Washington |
73.568 |
3-5 |
77.443 |
-3, -2.409 |
| 48 |
Michigan St |
73.504 |
4-4 |
69.282 |
+2, -1.111 |
| 49 |
Wisconsin |
73.115 |
5-2 |
69.746 |
+0, -1.802 |
| 50 |
Michigan |
72.432 |
5-3 |
65.902 |
-9, -3.987 |
| 51 |
Air Force |
72.315 |
4-4 |
64.818 |
+6, -0.128 |
| 52 |
Virginia |
72.219 |
3-4 |
72.079 |
-1, -2.007 |
| 53 |
Navy |
72.060 |
6-2 |
64.857 |
+2, -0.540 |
| 54 |
Arizona St |
71.939 |
4-3 |
65.529 |
-7, -3.163 |
| 55 |
Wake Forest |
71.670 |
4-4 |
70.043 |
+5, -0.123 |
| 56 |
Rutgers |
71.318 |
5-2 |
57.602 |
+9, +0.373 |
| 57 |
Mississippi St |
71.280 |
3-5 |
69.822 |
+5, -0.127 |
| 58 |
Texas A&M |
70.771 |
4-3 |
66.741 |
+26, +4.606 |
| 59 |
Missouri |
70.672 |
4-3 |
68.907 |
-5, -2.417 |
| 60 |
Minnesota |
70.261 |
4-4 |
72.368 |
-4, -2.253 |
| 61 |
Kansas St |
70.003 |
5-3 |
66.081 |
+5, -0.774 |
| 62 |
Duke |
69.711 |
4-3 |
64.462 |
-4, -2.189 |
| 63 |
North Carolina |
69.450 |
4-3 |
65.510 |
+1, -1.698 |
| 64 |
Northern Illinois |
69.326 |
4-3 |
63.004 |
-12, -3.957 |
| 65 |
Temple |
69.218 |
5-2 |
62.350 |
+11, +1.618 |
| 66 |
Troy |
68.845 |
5-2 |
65.744 |
+3, -1.314 |
| 67 |
Nevada |
68.458 |
4-3 |
66.056 |
+7, +0.547 |
| 68 |
Purdue |
68.212 |
3-5 |
69.100 |
-1, -2.521 |
| 69 |
Tulsa |
67.899 |
4-3 |
62.408 |
-10, -3.993 |
| 70 |
Marshall |
67.846 |
5-3 |
66.706 |
+2, -0.593 |
| 71 |
Baylor |
67.650 |
3-4 |
68.837 |
-1, -1.651 |
| 72 |
Southern Miss |
67.134 |
5-3 |
60.646 |
+3, -0.564 |
| 73 |
Ohio U. |
66.995 |
5-3 |
63.959 |
-12, -4.459 |
| 74 |
Idaho |
66.887 |
6-2 |
65.508 |
-11, -4.463 |
| 75 |
Bowling Green |
66.589 |
3-5 |
69.437 |
-4, -2.260 |
| 76 |
San Diego St |
66.442 |
3-4 |
67.059 |
+13, +1.775 |
| 77 |
North Carolina St |
66.032 |
3-4 |
64.408 |
+2, -0.810 |
| 78 |
Colorado St |
65.667 |
3-5 |
70.948 |
-10, -4.786 |
| 79 |
Louisville |
65.394 |
2-5 |
71.529 |
+4, -0.948 |
| 80 |
Arkansas St |
65.332 |
2-4 |
62.461 |
-3, -1.940 |
| 81 |
Indiana |
64.832 |
4-4 |
64.862 |
+0, -1.563 |
| 82 |
Western Michigan |
64.822 |
4-4 |
64.952 |
-4, -2.412 |
| 83 |
East Carolina |
64.629 |
4-3 |
64.029 |
+3, -0.990 |
| 84 |
Central Florida |
64.334 |
4-3 |
60.915 |
+8, -0.014 |
| 85 |
SMU |
64.276 |
3-4 |
68.845 |
-3, -2.071 |
| 86 |
Colorado |
64.238 |
2-5 |
70.949 |
-13, -3.937 |
| 87 |
UTEP |
64.136 |
3-4 |
67.634 |
+6, +0.084 |
| 88 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
63.876 |
4-3 |
65.545 |
-8, -2.803 |
| 89 |
Maryland |
63.781 |
2-6 |
70.487 |
+6, +0.174 |
| 90 |
Middle Tennessee St |
63.765 |
4-3 |
63.821 |
+1, -0.625 |
| 91 |
Kent St |
63.739 |
4-4 |
62.719 |
+12, +2.176 |
| 92 |
Northwestern |
63.708 |
5-3 |
60.487 |
-7, -1.972 |
| 93 |
Louisiana Tech |
63.140 |
3-4 |
61.278 |
+1, -0.897 |
| 94 |
Buffalo |
63.073 |
3-5 |
65.347 |
+4, +0.552 |
| 95 |
Syracuse |
63.068 |
3-4 |
65.548 |
-5, -1.326 |
| 96 |
San Jose St |
62.717 |
1-5 |
74.038 |
-8, -2.040 |
| 97 |
Utah St |
62.620 |
2-5 |
67.178 |
+2, +0.200 |
| 98 |
Florida Atlantic |
62.202 |
2-4 |
66.145 |
+3, +0.035 |
| 99 |
Wyoming |
61.989 |
4-3 |
64.482 |
-3, -1.500 |
| 100 |
Vanderbilt |
61.686 |
2-6 |
65.511 |
+5, +1.045 |
| 101 |
Toledo |
61.047 |
4-4 |
65.051 |
-14, -4.050 |
| 102 |
Alabama-Birmingham |
60.776 |
2-5 |
66.650 |
-2, -1.398 |
| 103 |
UNLV |
60.510 |
3-5 |
63.867 |
+1, -0.629 |
| 104 |
Illinois |
59.919 |
1-6 |
69.813 |
+2, -0.348 |
| 105 |
Hawaii |
59.834 |
2-5 |
66.876 |
-3, -1.944 |
| 106 |
Memphis |
58.205 |
2-5 |
63.975 |
+4, -0.118 |
| 107 |
Army |
57.257 |
3-5 |
62.201 |
+4, -1.065 |
| 108 |
Washington St |
57.097 |
1-6 |
74.802 |
+1, -1.719 |
| 109 |
North Texas |
56.750 |
1-6 |
66.514 |
-2, -2.840 |
| 110 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
56.568 |
4-3 |
61.324 |
-13, -6.256 |
| 111 |
Miami OH |
55.941 |
0-8 |
73.579 |
+3, -0.124 |
| 112 |
Florida Int'l |
55.450 |
1-6 |
67.674 |
-4, -3.793 |
| 113 |
Akron |
55.370 |
1-6 |
65.507 |
-1, -2.466 |
| 114 |
Tulane |
54.302 |
2-5 |
65.096 |
-1, -2.997 |
| 115 |
Ball St |
53.504 |
1-7 |
62.849 |
+0, -1.917 |
| 116 |
New Mexico St |
52.050 |
3-5 |
61.377 |
+0, -0.478 |
| 117 |
Eastern Michigan |
50.048 |
0-7 |
64.770 |
+0, -0.403 |
| 118 |
New Mexico |
47.006 |
0-7 |
65.594 |
+2, -1.104 |
| 119 |
Rice |
46.143 |
0-8 |
68.291 |
+0, -2.031 |
| 120 |
Western Kentucky |
43.577 |
0-7 |
64.802 |
-2, -4.874 |
Friday, October 23, 2009
2009 Week 8 College Football Preview
Week 8 has already started and the computer is doing ok going 2-0 in the Wednesday and Thursday games.
Last weeks highlighted games went 3-2 against the spread getting Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Iowa correct but missing on Virginia Tech and Nebraska. In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.
#8 USC hosts #25 Oregon State with an opportunity to get back for their 27-21 loss on the road last year and is favored by Vegas by 21, but my computer likes them by only 10.4. Unless vengeance is worth 10 points, Oregon State would appear to be a good pick, but there are 3 degrees of separation between the teams so it is certainly not one of this weeks locks.
#12 Iowa vists #50 Michigan State but for the second week in a row and the third time this year, Vegas has them a road underdog even though they are undefeated! The computer is picking the "upset" by 6.2 and with 2 ways there are only 2 degrees of separation, this one is a lock. But will Iowa's luck run out?
In an SEC battle between 5-2 Auburn at 5-1 LSU, LSU is the 8 point pick by Vegas but the computer likes them by 6.6. So not a terribly strong pick, but still a game that will go a long way to determining seeding for the bowls. These teams do have just 2 degrees of separation through Mississippi State who LSU beat on the road by 4 but Mississippi State beat at home by 25.
After losing a heart breaker to USC last week, Notre Dame hosts Boston College and Vegas has bought in to Notre Dame lore picking them by 9.5 while the computer thinks the more appropriate margin is 5.6. With 4 degrees of separation though, this one is far from a lock.
Last, in a game pitting BCS buster wanna be #9 TCU at former BCS buster wanna be #33 BYU, Vegas had it even at one point but it now seems to be TCU by 2 or 2.5. The computer thinks that still isn't enough picking TCU by 5.4.
If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at my newsletter that is sent out weekly.
Enjoy the games.
Last weeks highlighted games went 3-2 against the spread getting Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Iowa correct but missing on Virginia Tech and Nebraska. In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.
#8 USC hosts #25 Oregon State with an opportunity to get back for their 27-21 loss on the road last year and is favored by Vegas by 21, but my computer likes them by only 10.4. Unless vengeance is worth 10 points, Oregon State would appear to be a good pick, but there are 3 degrees of separation between the teams so it is certainly not one of this weeks locks.
#12 Iowa vists #50 Michigan State but for the second week in a row and the third time this year, Vegas has them a road underdog even though they are undefeated! The computer is picking the "upset" by 6.2 and with 2 ways there are only 2 degrees of separation, this one is a lock. But will Iowa's luck run out?
In an SEC battle between 5-2 Auburn at 5-1 LSU, LSU is the 8 point pick by Vegas but the computer likes them by 6.6. So not a terribly strong pick, but still a game that will go a long way to determining seeding for the bowls. These teams do have just 2 degrees of separation through Mississippi State who LSU beat on the road by 4 but Mississippi State beat at home by 25.
After losing a heart breaker to USC last week, Notre Dame hosts Boston College and Vegas has bought in to Notre Dame lore picking them by 9.5 while the computer thinks the more appropriate margin is 5.6. With 4 degrees of separation though, this one is far from a lock.
Last, in a game pitting BCS buster wanna be #9 TCU at former BCS buster wanna be #33 BYU, Vegas had it even at one point but it now seems to be TCU by 2 or 2.5. The computer thinks that still isn't enough picking TCU by 5.4.
If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at my newsletter that is sent out weekly.
Enjoy the games.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Good Start to Week 8
After the first two games this week, the computer's predictions are doing pretty well.
In the first game, Tulsa visited UTEP where they were favored by 8 in Vegas but the computer liked them only by 4.8 making UTEP the pick. When UTEP pulled off the upset, that made the pick right against the spread but missed on the win. Still, I'll take it.
Tonight, Florida State visited North Carolina with the Vegas line North Carolina by 3 but the computer was picking the upset this time, Florida State by 2.5. It didn't look good early, but the computer nearly nailed it in the end with Florida State winning by 3. This pick was almost one of the locks for the week so here's hoping the locks come through just as well.
If you'd like to get the best picks, locks, and other information each week, take a look at the newsletter and subscribe if you like what you see.
In the first game, Tulsa visited UTEP where they were favored by 8 in Vegas but the computer liked them only by 4.8 making UTEP the pick. When UTEP pulled off the upset, that made the pick right against the spread but missed on the win. Still, I'll take it.
Tonight, Florida State visited North Carolina with the Vegas line North Carolina by 3 but the computer was picking the upset this time, Florida State by 2.5. It didn't look good early, but the computer nearly nailed it in the end with Florida State winning by 3. This pick was almost one of the locks for the week so here's hoping the locks come through just as well.
If you'd like to get the best picks, locks, and other information each week, take a look at the newsletter and subscribe if you like what you see.
Monday, October 19, 2009
2009 Week 6 NFL Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 6
of the NFL season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.
New Orleans remains projected to have 1 loss and now has a 26% chance of going undefeated. Indy and Denver also remain projected at 14-2. Minnesota, while currently undefeated, is projected to end up at 13-3.
If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, New England, and one of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and one of the NY Jets or Baltimore. The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Giants, Arizona, Atlanta, and one of Chicago or San Francisco.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
New Orleans remains projected to have 1 loss and now has a 26% chance of going undefeated. Indy and Denver also remain projected at 14-2. Minnesota, while currently undefeated, is projected to end up at 13-3.
If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Denver, Indianapolis, New England, and one of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and one of the NY Jets or Baltimore. The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, NY Giants, Arizona, Atlanta, and one of Chicago or San Francisco.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team |
Record |
% chance |
% +1 |
% -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team |
Record |
% chance |
% +1 |
% -1 |
| New Orleans |
15-1 |
41.6 |
26.0 |
24.8 |
| Denver |
14-2 |
36.9 |
34.1 |
16.5 |
| Indianapolis |
14-2 |
30.0 |
21.9 |
23.8 |
| Minnesota |
13-3 |
29.2 |
22.5 |
22.6 |
| Atlanta |
12-4 |
29.3 |
18.0 |
26.9 |
| NY Giants |
11-5 |
27.9 |
20.8 |
23.2 |
| Arizona |
11-5 |
26.0 |
16.0 |
25.9 |
| New England |
10-6 |
27.2 |
23.9 |
19.7 |
| Cincinnati |
10-6 |
29.6 |
22.9 |
22.5 |
| Chicago |
10-6 |
25.8 |
17.4 |
24.6 |
| Pittsburgh |
10-6 |
26.6 |
16.7 |
26.0 |
| San Francisco |
10-6 |
24.5 |
16.6 |
24.0 |
| NY Jets |
9-7 |
28.9 |
24.7 |
20.3 |
| Dallas |
9-7 |
29.2 |
23.7 |
21.3 |
| Green Bay |
9-7 |
25.4 |
22.8 |
19.0 |
| Baltimore |
9-7 |
26.1 |
18.7 |
23.7 |
| San Diego |
8-8 |
27.4 |
25.3 |
18.4 |
| Philadelphia |
8-8 |
26.0 |
23.1 |
19.1 |
| Miami |
8-8 |
25.5 |
21.3 |
20.5 |
| Houston |
8-8 |
25.4 |
16.6 |
25.3 |
| Jacksonville |
7-9 |
25.0 |
24.3 |
17.0 |
| Seattle |
7-9 |
26.9 |
21.6 |
21.6 |
| Buffalo |
6-10 |
25.7 |
23.5 |
18.5 |
| Oakland |
5-11 |
28.7 |
25.5 |
18.7 |
| Cleveland |
5-11 |
26.5 |
21.2 |
21.6 |
| Carolina |
4-12 |
37.6 |
24.8 |
24.3 |
| Tennessee |
4-12 |
25.8 |
17.8 |
24.7 |
| Detroit |
3-13 |
33.1 |
25.7 |
21.3 |
| Kansas City |
3-13 |
33.0 |
21.2 |
27.1 |
| Washington |
2-14 |
49.1 |
38.2 |
0.0 |
| St Louis |
2-14 |
31.9 |
20.2 |
27.9 |
| Tampa Bay |
0-16 |
56.3 |
34.1 |
0.0 |
2009 Week 6 NFL Ratings/Rankings and Summary
Week 6 of the NFL season is complete and it resulted
in a few changes in the ratings. The ratings are below but can always
be found at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/nfl-football/nfl-ratings.
The top 3 stay the same after two of the teams had big wins but there is a new #3 in Atlanta and while Minnesota pulled out the win at home against Baltimore, they were passed by more impressive Atlanta and New England.
The computer did well picking games this week going 8-5-1 against the spread, and an ok 4-2-1 missed on a lock for the first time going 2-1. Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter. Full prediction performance here.
The top 3 stay the same after two of the teams had big wins but there is a new #3 in Atlanta and while Minnesota pulled out the win at home against Baltimore, they were passed by more impressive Atlanta and New England.
The computer did well picking games this week going 8-5-1 against the spread, and an ok 4-2-1 missed on a lock for the first time going 2-1. Details of the picks in last weeks newsletter. Full prediction performance here.
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank |
Team |
Rating |
Record |
Schedule |
Change |
| 1 |
New Orleans |
95.152 |
5-0 |
79.562 |
+0, -0.427 |
| 2 |
Indianapolis |
91.551 |
5-0 |
80.823 |
+0, +0.627 |
| 3 |
Denver |
90.507 |
6-0 |
80.990 |
+0, +0.523 |
| 4 |
Atlanta |
88.172 |
4-1 |
82.103 |
+3, +1.804 |
| 5 |
New England |
88.039 |
4-2 |
82.519 |
+0, +0.760 |
| 6 |
Minnesota |
86.905 |
6-0 |
78.608 |
-2, -0.720 |
| 7 |
Baltimore |
85.229 |
3-3 |
81.499 |
+3, -0.224 |
| 8 |
Arizona |
85.185 |
3-2 |
82.499 |
+9, +2.879 |
| 9 |
Chicago |
84.837 |
3-2 |
82.004 |
+0, -0.771 |
| 10 |
San Francisco |
84.681 |
3-2 |
81.359 |
+2, +0.243 |
| 11 |
NY Giants |
84.291 |
5-1 |
77.756 |
+0, -0.301 |
| 12 |
NY Jets |
84.280 |
3-3 |
83.360 |
-4, -2.002 |
| 13 |
Cincinnati |
83.953 |
4-2 |
83.316 |
-7, -3.174 |
| 14 |
Pittsburgh |
83.706 |
4-2 |
78.803 |
-1, -0.670 |
| 15 |
Miami |
83.246 |
2-3 |
84.147 |
+1, +0.728 |
| 16 |
Green Bay |
83.138 |
3-2 |
78.956 |
-1, +0.098 |
| 17 |
Dallas |
81.680 |
3-2 |
78.036 |
+1, -0.108 |
| 18 |
Philadelphia |
81.249 |
3-2 |
75.853 |
-4, -3.025 |
| 19 |
San Diego |
81.021 |
2-3 |
82.884 |
+1, -0.037 |
| 20 |
Houston |
80.795 |
3-3 |
80.184 |
+2, +3.582 |
| 21 |
Seattle |
79.729 |
2-4 |
81.467 |
-2, -2.025 |
| 22 |
Jacksonville |
78.739 |
3-3 |
80.213 |
-1, -0.676 |
| 23 |
Buffalo |
78.713 |
2-4 |
82.391 |
+1, +2.910 |
| 24 |
Cleveland |
76.518 |
1-5 |
85.836 |
-1, -0.301 |
| 25 |
Oakland |
74.731 |
2-4 |
81.737 |
+4, +3.140 |
| 26 |
Tennessee |
74.215 |
0-6 |
85.518 |
+0, -0.267 |
| 27 |
Carolina |
72.713 |
2-3 |
78.104 |
+0, -0.273 |
| 28 |
Kansas City |
72.556 |
1-5 |
79.414 |
+2, +2.001 |
| 29 |
Detroit |
72.276 |
1-5 |
83.841 |
-4, -2.251 |
| 30 |
St Louis |
69.806 |
0-6 |
81.416 |
+1, +0.560 |
| 31 |
Washington |
69.306 |
2-4 |
73.126 |
-3, -3.015 |
| 32 |
Tampa Bay |
67.111 |
0-6 |
77.992 |
+0, -2.073 |
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Thoughts On The First BCS Rankings
The first BCS rankings came out today and naturally the first thing I did was compare them with my computer's rankings.
First, just looking at the BCS rankings themselves the top-5 isn't terribly out of whack with the same teams in both the BCS and my computer's top-5, just in a different order. After that, there is not nearly as much agreement. See below for a full table.
Overrated
My computer says Iowa is way overrated at #6 in the BCS as the computer has them #12. LSU is also overrated at #9 being #16 in the computer. Penn State too is overrated at #13, the computer having them #23. The largest overrating however is Oklahoma State at #15 when the computer says they are #40. Yes they are 5-1, but they haven't played anyone ranked above #39 (Houston) and haven't beaten anyone above #46 (Georgia). BYU is nearly as bad at #16 while the computer has them #33. And Houston is also nearly as bad as Oklahoma State at #17 while the computer has them #39. Also Ohio State at #19 while the computer has them #24. Going farther down the list just reveals more "mistakes".
Is my computer way off on these? Comparing with the BCS computers, there is some agreement on the overrated teams (Penn State a bit, Oklahoma State and BYU yes, and Ohio State more so than my computer!) but not all. What do you think, does Iowa, LSU, and the others above pass the smell test?
Underrated
So who has been hurt by the overrated teams above? Virginia Tech is underrated at #14 in the BCS, the computer having them at #7. The computer still likes Oklahoma (#11) while the BCS doesn't have them ranked. With 3 losses you'd think they'd be lower but when they are by a total of 5 points to teams with a combined 17-2 record, you can't knock them too much.
What do you think? The current poll as I write this is for the most overrated in the BCS so vote.
First, just looking at the BCS rankings themselves the top-5 isn't terribly out of whack with the same teams in both the BCS and my computer's top-5, just in a different order. After that, there is not nearly as much agreement. See below for a full table.
Overrated
My computer says Iowa is way overrated at #6 in the BCS as the computer has them #12. LSU is also overrated at #9 being #16 in the computer. Penn State too is overrated at #13, the computer having them #23. The largest overrating however is Oklahoma State at #15 when the computer says they are #40. Yes they are 5-1, but they haven't played anyone ranked above #39 (Houston) and haven't beaten anyone above #46 (Georgia). BYU is nearly as bad at #16 while the computer has them #33. And Houston is also nearly as bad as Oklahoma State at #17 while the computer has them #39. Also Ohio State at #19 while the computer has them #24. Going farther down the list just reveals more "mistakes".
Is my computer way off on these? Comparing with the BCS computers, there is some agreement on the overrated teams (Penn State a bit, Oklahoma State and BYU yes, and Ohio State more so than my computer!) but not all. What do you think, does Iowa, LSU, and the others above pass the smell test?
Underrated
So who has been hurt by the overrated teams above? Virginia Tech is underrated at #14 in the BCS, the computer having them at #7. The computer still likes Oklahoma (#11) while the BCS doesn't have them ranked. With 3 losses you'd think they'd be lower but when they are by a total of 5 points to teams with a combined 17-2 record, you can't knock them too much.
What do you think? The current poll as I write this is for the most overrated in the BCS so vote.
| Team | BCS | Schmidt | BCS Computers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Alabama | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Texas | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Boise State | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Iowa | 6 | 12 | 3 |
| USC | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| TCU | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| LSU | 9 | 16 | 7 |
| Miami-Florida | 10 | 14 | 13 |
| Oregon | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Georgia Tech | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| Penn State | 13 | 23 | 17 |
| Virginia Tech | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| Oklahoma State | 15 | 40 | 21 |
| BYU | 16 | 33 | 25 |
| Houston | 17 | 39 | 18 |
| Utah | 18 | 22 | 14 |
| Ohio State | 19 | 24 | 32 |
| Pittsburgh | 20 | 35 | 20 |
| Wisconsin | 21 | 49 | 14 |
| Arizona | 22 | 17 | 14 |
| West Virginia | 23 | 36 | 24 |
| South Carolina | 24 | 31 | 22 |
| Kansas | 25 | 38 | 33 |
2009 Week 7 Conference Ratings/Rankings
With this many games played in the season, comparing conferences should how be useful so here is a quick comparison with each conferences average rating as well as the high and low.
The SEC leads the way but in what is perhaps a bit of a surprise the Pac-10 comes in ahead of the Big-12. There is a big drop after the top 6 conferences but the Mountain West and WAC do have their top teams rated above the top Big-Televen team.
The SEC leads the way but in what is perhaps a bit of a surprise the Pac-10 comes in ahead of the Big-12. There is a big drop after the top 6 conferences but the Mountain West and WAC do have their top teams rated above the top Big-Televen team.
| Rank | Conference | Average | High | Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | 78.623 | 95.206 | 60.653 |
| 2 | Pac-10 | 77.558 | 86.460 | 58.832 |
| 3 | Big-12 | 76.613 | 89.475 | 66.180 |
| 4 | ACC | 75.366 | 87.167 | 63.619 |
| 5 | Big-East | 75.336 | 90.521 | 64.406 |
| 6 | Big-Televen | 73.072 | 83.832 | 60.280 |
| 7 | Independent | 69.631 | 77.945 | 58.334 |
| 8 | Mountain-West | 69.288 | 85.970 | 48.126 |
| 9 | WAC | 68.126 | 89.488 | 52.548 |
| 10 | C-USA | 64.258 | 76.559 | 48.188 |
| 11 | MAC | 64.134 | 76.222 | 50.463 |
| 12 | Sun-Belt | 62.323 | 70.172 | 48.469 |
2009 Week 7 College Football Projected Records
Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 7
of the college football season. These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-projections.
Even though the ranks of the undefeated lost Kansas this week, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated went up from 4 to 6.
Boise State is projected at the top with 13 wins (they get an extra game this year), but Alabama stays slightly ahead on the chance to finish without a loss at 95.2% to 94.7%. Now close behind them is Cincinnati after getting past potentially their toughest game at South Florida at 88.2%. Florida actually lost a little ground in the likelihood race dropping from 77.1% to 70.8% and TCU stays on this list at 62.2% up a bit from last week. The addition other than Cincinnati to the list is Texas having gotten by Oklahoma at 52.9%.
Iowa is the only current undefeated not projected to finish that way with 1 loss most likely at 45.5% but 0 losses is very close at 43.9%.
With this many teams projected to finish unblemished, it is unlikely that a 1 loss team will find their way into the championship game, and only one of those, Georgia Tech, is projected to finish with 1 loss. All of the others, including USC, Oregon, Miami, LSU, and South Florida are projected to lose once more.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Even though the ranks of the undefeated lost Kansas this week, the number of teams projected to finish the regular season undefeated went up from 4 to 6.
Boise State is projected at the top with 13 wins (they get an extra game this year), but Alabama stays slightly ahead on the chance to finish without a loss at 95.2% to 94.7%. Now close behind them is Cincinnati after getting past potentially their toughest game at South Florida at 88.2%. Florida actually lost a little ground in the likelihood race dropping from 77.1% to 70.8% and TCU stays on this list at 62.2% up a bit from last week. The addition other than Cincinnati to the list is Texas having gotten by Oklahoma at 52.9%.
Iowa is the only current undefeated not projected to finish that way with 1 loss most likely at 45.5% but 0 losses is very close at 43.9%.
With this many teams projected to finish unblemished, it is unlikely that a 1 loss team will find their way into the championship game, and only one of those, Georgia Tech, is projected to finish with 1 loss. All of the others, including USC, Oregon, Miami, LSU, and South Florida are projected to lose once more.
Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Boise St | 13-0 | 94.7 | 0.0 | 5.2 |
| Alabama | 12-0 | 95.2 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
| Cincinnati | 12-0 | 88.2 | 0.0 | 11.7 |
| Florida | 12-0 | 70.8 | 0.0 | 25.8 |
| TCU | 12-0 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 34.6 |
| Texas | 12-0 | 52.9 | 0.0 | 36.4 |
| Iowa | 11-1 | 45.5 | 43.9 | 10.3 |
| Georgia Tech | 11-1 | 48.7 | 0.0 | 39.5 |
| Houston | 10-2 | 45.7 | 34.4 | 17.2 |
| Southern Cal | 10-2 | 42.0 | 18.6 | 28.8 |
| Central Michigan | 10-2 | 42.4 | 18.0 | 30.6 |
| Miami FL | 10-2 | 39.5 | 18.0 | 30.0 |
| Penn State | 10-2 | 37.5 | 14.4 | 34.1 |
| Brigham Young | 10-2 | 38.6 | 10.8 | 37.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 10-2 | 68.6 | 0.0 | 28.0 |
| Utah | 9-3 | 50.2 | 41.3 | 5.5 |
| Texas Tech | 9-3 | 42.3 | 39.4 | 15.7 |
| Ohio U. | 9-3 | 46.0 | 33.8 | 17.9 |
| Oregon | 9-3 | 33.4 | 32.1 | 17.2 |
| South Florida | 9-3 | 35.9 | 30.5 | 19.1 |
| LSU | 9-3 | 46.3 | 27.6 | 22.6 |
| Wisconsin | 9-3 | 42.4 | 25.7 | 24.6 |
| Nebraska | 9-3 | 35.9 | 15.3 | 31.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 38.2 | 14.9 | 34.9 |
| Idaho | 9-3 | 43.5 | 12.8 | 36.5 |
| Navy | 9-4 | 38.7 | 36.0 | 16.2 |
| Fresno St | 8-4 | 42.4 | 40.7 | 14.7 |
| West Virginia | 8-4 | 40.4 | 32.4 | 18.7 |
| Troy | 8-4 | 40.4 | 32.0 | 19.3 |
| Michigan | 8-4 | 37.7 | 29.4 | 20.3 |
| Ohio State | 8-4 | 40.6 | 28.3 | 21.7 |
| Tulsa | 8-4 | 35.3 | 27.9 | 21.3 |
| Notre Dame | 8-4 | 38.3 | 25.6 | 23.4 |
| Boston College | 8-4 | 37.1 | 22.1 | 26.9 |
| Kentucky | 8-4 | 44.3 | 21.2 | 27.9 |
| California | 8-4 | 33.5 | 20.1 | 27.8 |
| Mississippi | 8-4 | 33.2 | 17.9 | 29.9 |
| Oklahoma St | 8-4 | 34.5 | 16.1 | 32.3 |
| Arizona | 8-4 | 36.4 | 15.2 | 34.3 |
| Northern Illinois | 8-4 | 43.0 | 11.5 | 39.9 |
| Temple | 7-5 | 38.2 | 34.9 | 13.8 |
| Arkansas | 7-5 | 38.2 | 33.6 | 16.2 |
| Auburn | 7-5 | 44.2 | 32.8 | 16.6 |
| Marshall | 7-5 | 34.5 | 31.7 | 17.9 |
| Oregon St | 7-5 | 42.7 | 31.3 | 16.0 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | 7-5 | 36.7 | 30.2 | 19.0 |
| South Carolina | 7-5 | 42.4 | 29.4 | 19.7 |
| Colorado St | 7-5 | 45.0 | 28.3 | 22.2 |
| Clemson | 7-5 | 38.3 | 27.3 | 22.0 |
| Oklahoma | 7-5 | 38.1 | 27.3 | 21.9 |
| Kansas | 7-5 | 36.3 | 26.1 | 22.6 |
| Missouri | 7-5 | 34.3 | 23.0 | 25.3 |
| Middle Tennessee St | 7-5 | 36.9 | 21.4 | 27.8 |
| Rutgers | 7-5 | 40.5 | 21.0 | 27.8 |
| Connecticut | 7-5 | 43.3 | 18.5 | 32.9 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | 7-5 | 30.7 | 17.0 | 29.7 |
| Air Force | 7-5 | 42.4 | 13.6 | 37.2 |
| Bowling Green | 7-5 | 40.6 | 12.5 | 34.6 |
| Toledo | 7-5 | 38.3 | 12.4 | 36.9 |
| Minnesota | 7-5 | 46.3 | 7.4 | 40.3 |
| Western Michigan | 6-6 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 12.8 |
| Tennessee | 6-6 | 40.0 | 35.0 | 14.3 |
| Stanford | 6-6 | 35.0 | 33.8 | 14.9 |
| Iowa St | 6-6 | 36.0 | 33.6 | 15.2 |
| Michigan St | 6-6 | 34.4 | 32.9 | 15.1 |
| Georgia | 6-6 | 44.4 | 31.8 | 18.0 |
| Southern Miss | 6-6 | 37.5 | 31.1 | 17.7 |
| East Carolina | 6-6 | 40.2 | 30.6 | 19.6 |
| SMU | 6-6 | 46.9 | 26.6 | 19.7 |
| Arkansas St | 6-6 | 35.8 | 25.2 | 23.7 |
| Nevada | 6-6 | 38.1 | 23.0 | 26.3 |
| North Carolina | 6-6 | 37.1 | 22.5 | 26.8 |
| Central Florida | 6-6 | 43.4 | 22.0 | 28.0 |
| Kansas St | 6-6 | 38.4 | 21.8 | 27.8 |
| UCLA | 6-6 | 39.0 | 10.3 | 37.8 |
| Northwestern | 6-6 | 39.4 | 10.0 | 38.7 |
| Florida St | 5-7 | 38.3 | 34.2 | 15.9 |
| Arizona St | 5-7 | 33.2 | 32.7 | 13.3 |
| Duke | 5-7 | 36.7 | 32.5 | 15.3 |
| Wake Forest | 5-7 | 38.1 | 31.3 | 17.2 |
| Washington | 5-7 | 39.3 | 31.0 | 17.9 |
| UTEP | 5-7 | 33.0 | 27.8 | 19.8 |
| Indiana | 5-7 | 43.4 | 27.1 | 23.0 |
| Virginia | 5-7 | 37.0 | 24.8 | 23.7 |
| Buffalo | 5-7 | 36.4 | 20.8 | 28.8 |
| Kent St | 5-7 | 38.4 | 16.6 | 33.3 |
| San Diego St | 4-8 | 43.6 | 38.7 | 11.8 |
| Wyoming | 4-8 | 54.0 | 37.8 | 0.0 |
| North Carolina St | 4-8 | 38.2 | 37.2 | 10.7 |
| Texas A&M | 4-8 | 37.3 | 32.8 | 15.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | 4-8 | 42.9 | 31.7 | 17.4 |
| Baylor | 4-8 | 37.9 | 31.6 | 16.3 |
| Purdue | 4-8 | 39.9 | 31.3 | 17.7 |
| Alabama-Birmingham | 4-8 | 30.8 | 30.4 | 15.7 |
| Florida Atlantic | 4-8 | 31.6 | 27.8 | 18.8 |
| San Jose St | 4-8 | 37.5 | 26.2 | 23.4 |
| Army | 4-8 | 73.1 | 25.4 | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 4-8 | 35.8 | 21.1 | 28.1 |
| Louisville | 4-8 | 45.1 | 19.6 | 29.5 |
| UNLV | 4-8 | 42.1 | 15.7 | 34.6 |
| Hawaii | 4-9 | 40.8 | 28.8 | 18.9 |
| Mississippi St | 3-9 | 45.4 | 42.1 | 0.0 |
| North Texas | 3-9 | 38.5 | 36.7 | 9.4 |
| Tulane | 3-9 | 44.7 | 34.5 | 11.9 |
| Syracuse | 3-9 | 54.0 | 34.2 | 5.9 |
| Florida Int'l | 3-9 | 40.5 | 20.9 | 29.0 |
| Memphis | 3-9 | 46.9 | 20.0 | 30.6 |
| Akron | 3-9 | 42.6 | 15.9 | 34.8 |
| Utah St | 3-9 | 37.1 | 13.2 | 36.8 |
| New Mexico St | 3-10 | 67.9 | 28.1 | 0.0 |
| Maryland | 2-10 | 43.5 | 41.6 | 0.0 |
| Vanderbilt | 2-10 | 91.7 | 8.1 | 0.0 |
| Illinois | 1-11 | 46.1 | 42.6 | 0.0 |
| Miami OH | 1-11 | 43.5 | 19.5 | 33.1 |
| Washington St | 1-11 | 86.7 | 12.6 | 0.0 |
| Ball St | 1-11 | 60.5 | 3.7 | 35.8 |
| Eastern Michigan | 0-12 | 45.2 | 42.8 | 0.0 |
| Rice | 0-12 | 58.4 | 35.5 | 0.0 |
| Western Kentucky | 0-12 | 74.0 | 22.9 | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 0-12 | 79.1 | 20.3 | 0.0 |
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