Sunday, November 1, 2009

2009 Week 9 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 9 (games played thru 31-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the Marshall at Central Florida game will be included in week 9 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

I posted a preview of the rankings last night and as expected not much changed with the remainder of the FCS games being included, so read that for a summary of what happened in the top-10.

The same 7 teams remain undefeated and the season projections forecast that 6 of them will finish that way, the line team to falter being Iowa.  But even they have a 46.5% chance of finishing unblemished.  Alabama's big test will come next week against LSU but many of the other teams don't have a big test remaining, thus the high percentage chances of staying perfect.

The computer had a great week going 34-19 against the spread and the one lock of the week, Oregon plus the points over USC came through big time.  The computer also picked more winners than Vegas going 40-13 vs the Vegas 38-15.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Florida
89.277
8-0
71.267
+1, +0.728
2
Texas
88.867
8-0
69.428
+4, +2.436
3
Alabama
88.527
8-0
70.367
-2, -2.193
4
Oregon
87.857
7-1
73.484
+3, +1.853
5
Cincinnati
87.257
8-0
66.471
-2, -0.305
6
Boise St
86.664
8-0
65.381
-2, -0.699
7
TCU
86.317
8-0
68.199
-2, -0.922
8
Oklahoma
82.347
5-3
67.984
+2, -1.507
9
LSU
81.756
7-1
68.873
+4, +0.264
10
Virginia Tech
81.633
5-3
75.485
-2, -3.224
11
Georgia Tech
81.597
8-1
72.878
+1, -0.554
12
Southern Cal
81.522
6-2
74.125
-3, -2.698
13
Clemson
81.272
5-3
70.510
+1, -0.037
14
Iowa
80.765
9-0
70.409
-3, -1.751
15
Penn State
80.215
8-1
64.576
+0, -0.775
16
Pittsburgh
79.621
7-1
67.599
+2, +0.528
17
Tennessee
79.597
4-4
71.409
+7, +1.324
18
Arizona
79.364
5-2
73.204
-2, -1.303
19
Texas Tech
79.167
6-3
66.143
+9, +2.541
20
Miami FL
78.910
6-2
73.582
-3, -1.528
21
California
78.395
6-2
70.911
-2, -0.499
22
Ohio State
77.959
7-2
65.580
-2, -0.683
23
Stanford
77.873
5-3
70.685
-1, -0.572
24
Oklahoma St
77.403
6-2
67.034
-1, -0.920
25
Oregon St
77.385
5-3
71.525
+0, -0.762
26
Arkansas
77.297
4-4
72.602
+0, -0.541
27
Utah
76.996
7-1
67.326
+0, -0.665
28
Nebraska
76.464
5-3
68.078
+2, +0.043
29
Auburn
76.340
6-3
71.552
+7, +1.306
30
Boston College
76.073
6-3
69.390
+9, +1.361
31
Mississippi
75.739
5-3
68.591
-10, -2.794
32
South Florida
75.483
6-2
63.824
+13, +1.781
33
Houston
75.020
7-1
64.988
+2, -0.118
34
Notre Dame
74.385
6-2
68.861
-1, -1.509
35
Brigham Young
74.255
6-2
68.283
+2, -0.729
36
Fresno St
74.246
5-3
67.365
-5, -2.091
37
UCLA
74.090
3-5
76.896
+4, -0.243
38
Georgia
74.006
4-4
76.754
+2, -0.686
39
West Virginia
73.797
6-2
66.924
-1, -1.070
40
Florida St
73.658
4-4
72.504
+3, -0.275
41
Texas A&M
73.607
5-3
67.781
+17, +2.836
42
Rutgers
73.549
6-2
60.507
+14, +2.230
43
Wisconsin
73.545
6-2
67.968
+6, +0.430
44
Mississippi St
73.484
4-5
70.949
+13, +2.203
45
Kentucky
73.333
4-4
71.894
-13, -2.787
46
Air Force
73.231
5-4
64.880
+5, +0.916
47
Connecticut
72.925
4-4
67.729
-5, -1.404
48
South Carolina
72.825
6-3
70.742
-14, -2.441
49
Washington
72.793
3-5
76.698
-2, -0.775
50
Central Michigan
72.689
7-2
63.181
-21, -3.843
51
North Carolina
72.301
5-3
67.830
+12, +2.851
52
Missouri
72.229
5-3
68.795
+7, +1.557
53
Wake Forest
72.175
4-5
70.853
+2, +0.505
54
Duke
71.533
5-3
64.952
+8, +1.821
55
Arizona St
71.451
4-4
66.220
-1, -0.488
56
Kansas
71.379
5-3
67.035
-10, -2.263
57
Navy
71.361
6-3
65.440
-4, -0.699
58
Michigan St
71.289
4-5
68.638
-10, -2.215
59
Iowa St
71.057
5-4
67.949
-15, -2.764
60
Minnesota
70.672
5-4
71.621
+0, +0.411
61
Kansas St
70.144
5-4
67.559
+0, +0.141
62
Temple
70.133
6-2
63.409
+3, +0.915
63
Virginia
70.128
3-5
71.596
-11, -2.091
64
Troy
70.074
6-2
65.059
+2, +1.229
65
Nevada
68.181
5-3
64.766
+2, -0.277
66
Northern Illinois
67.889
5-3
60.259
-2, -1.437
67
Marshall
67.479
5-3
66.095
+3, -0.367
68
North Carolina St
67.325
3-5
65.842
+9, +1.293
69
Southern Miss
66.937
5-4
61.600
+3, -0.197
70
Michigan
66.616
5-4
64.719
-20, -5.817
71
SMU
66.612
4-4
68.289
+14, +2.335
72
East Carolina
66.548
5-3
64.021
+11, +1.919
73
Purdue
66.362
3-6
69.877
-5, -1.850
74
Baylor
66.333
3-5
68.947
-3, -1.318
75
Bowling Green
66.134
3-5
69.094
+0, -0.455
76
Ohio U.
65.674
6-3
62.765
-3, -1.321
77
Louisville
65.610
3-5
69.504
+2, +0.216
78
Idaho
65.380
7-2
64.076
-4, -1.508
79
Middle Tennessee St
65.142
5-3
63.905
+11, +1.377
80
San Diego St
64.556
4-4
64.201
-4, -1.887
81
Maryland
64.460
2-6
71.251
+8, +0.679
82
Utah St
64.306
2-6
68.916
+15, +1.686
83
Indiana
64.033
4-5
65.836
-2, -0.800
84
Louisiana Tech
64.019
3-5
62.438
+9, +0.878
85
Kent St
64.004
5-4
61.766
+6, +0.264
86
Arkansas St
63.965
2-5
62.752
-6, -1.368
87
Central Florida
63.651
4-3
60.119
-3, -0.683
88
Illinois
63.576
2-6
68.731
+16, +3.657
89
Syracuse
63.570
3-5
67.897
+6, +0.501
90
Tulsa
63.558
4-4
61.924
-21, -4.341
91
Colorado St
63.362
3-6
69.818
-13, -2.305
92
Northwestern
63.020
5-4
61.921
+0, -0.688
93
Alabama-Birmingham
62.612
3-5
66.675
+9, +1.836
94
Wyoming
62.172
4-4
66.513
+5, +0.183
95
Colorado
61.997
2-6
70.118
-9, -2.242
96
Western Michigan
61.986
4-5
63.485
-14, -2.837
97
Louisiana-Monroe
61.829
4-4
66.669
-9, -2.047
98
Buffalo
61.453
3-5
63.741
-4, -1.620
99
Vanderbilt
61.422
2-7
66.604
+1, -0.264
100
UTEP
61.279
3-5
65.661
-13, -2.857
101
San Jose St
61.170
1-6
74.786
-5, -1.547
102
UNLV
60.902
3-6
66.823
+1, +0.392
103
Florida Atlantic
60.402
2-5
64.864
-5, -1.800
104
Hawaii
59.549
2-6
66.829
+1, -0.286
105
Toledo
58.991
4-5
63.474
-4, -2.056
106
Army
57.515
3-5
62.428
+1, +0.258
107
Washington St
57.055
1-7
74.706
+1, -0.042
108
North Texas
56.775
2-6
62.767
+1, +0.025
109
Miami OH
56.262
1-8
70.535
+2, +0.321
110
Memphis
56.239
2-6
63.105
-4, -1.966
111
Louisiana-Lafayette
55.841
4-4
60.673
-1, -0.727
112
Florida Int'l
54.737
2-6
65.163
+0, -0.713
113
Akron
54.417
1-7
65.235
+0, -0.953
114
Ball St
53.944
1-8
62.707
+1, +0.440
115
Tulane
53.818
2-6
66.906
-1, -0.484
116
New Mexico St
52.161
3-6
63.271
+0, +0.110
117
Eastern Michigan
49.972
0-8
65.652
+0, -0.077
118
New Mexico
49.264
0-8
66.169
+0, +2.258
119
Rice
45.677
0-8
68.215
+0, -0.466
120
Western Kentucky
42.533
0-8
64.266
+0, -1.044

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