Sunday, November 29, 2009

2009 Week 13 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 13 (games played thru 28-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

With one week to go in the season, it couldn't have gotten much closer at the top!  Alabama remains #1 but by less than 0.6 points.  This means Alabama will be picked next week but it really is a virtual tie.  See this blog entry for more details on a head to head comparison and look for more here later in the week.

Behind the top two, the SEC cleaned up.  Buoyed by non-conference wins and upsets in two of the cases over FSU, @GT, and Clemson, nearly every SEC team improved their ratings, some 2 or 3 points leading to 8 teams in the top 24.  The bowl games will be interesting to see if this dominance is well deserved.

Naturally the ACC was hurt being the 3 opponents with their ratings doing just the opposite.  The championship game between Georgia Tech and Clemson doesn't look nearly as appealing now and GT just lost any chance they had of losing and still get a BCS bowl bid.  In fact, the computer says Virginia Tech is the best team in the ACC.

Other than Oklahoma pulling the "upset" (they were favored by Vegas and my computer though), the Big-12 didn't fare that well.  Texas was tested by A&M but moreso was just passed by Florida to drop to #3 and they will face a #23 Nebraska in their championship game.

Cincinnati eked by a bad Illinois team and justifiably dropped to #9 in the rankings and will barely be favored in their game against Pittsburgh next weekend.  If they win, they deserve the BCS bowl they'll get but if not, an undefeated Boise State should get the at-large pick over them.  See this blog entry for thoughts on the BCS at-large teams.

The computer had a blah week against the spread going 25-23-1 and also only went 36-13 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
89.492
12-0
70.589
+0, +0.334
2
Florida
88.916
12-0
69.301
+1, +2.272
3
Texas
87.675
12-0
68.647
-1, -0.444
4
TCU
85.300
12-0
64.855
+0, -1.251
5
Oregon
82.648
9-2
72.096
+0, -0.181
6
Boise St
82.255
12-0
63.719
+2, -0.206
7
Virginia Tech
82.027
9-3
72.175
+0, -0.487
8
Arkansas
81.389
7-5
72.652
+3, +1.428
9
Cincinnati
81.103
11-0
65.374
-3, -1.476
10
LSU
80.668
9-3
72.094
+3, +1.368
11
Oklahoma
80.170
7-5
70.353
+4, +1.327
12
Georgia Tech
79.313
10-2
71.846
-3, -2.378
13
Texas Tech
79.026
8-4
67.958
-1, -0.446
14
Miami FL
78.884
9-3
71.411
+0, -0.218
15
Oregon St
78.387
8-3
68.806
+2, -0.286
16
Stanford
78.368
8-4
70.574
+0, -0.387
17
Clemson
78.243
8-4
69.708
-7, -3.156
18
Ohio State
77.961
10-2
65.862
+1, -0.443
19
Tennessee
77.529
7-5
70.619
+11, +2.217
20
Mississippi
77.470
8-4
69.685
+0, -0.574
21
Southern Cal
77.361
8-3
71.561
+5, +0.847
22
Pittsburgh
77.247
9-2
67.006
-4, -1.209
23
Nebraska
77.124
9-3
67.308
-2, -0.246
24
Auburn
76.906
7-5
72.461
+5, +1.590
25
Penn State
76.529
10-2
63.982
-3, -0.740
26
Arizona
76.367
7-4
70.963
-1, -0.486
27
California
76.060
8-3
70.601
+0, -0.400
28
Oklahoma St
75.946
9-3
68.832
-5, -1.235
29
North Carolina
75.206
8-4
68.874
-5, -1.894
30
Georgia
75.184
7-5
73.870
+10, +2.919
31
Connecticut
74.976
6-5
68.847
+0, +0.254
32
Iowa
74.921
10-2
67.383
-4, -0.494
33
South Carolina
74.904
7-5
73.325
+18, +3.661
34
Brigham Young
74.233
10-2
66.076
+0, -0.227
35
Utah
74.138
9-3
65.699
-3, -0.436
36
West Virginia
74.135
8-3
68.427
-3, -0.401
37
Kentucky
74.131
7-5
69.253
-1, +0.752
38
Mississippi St
73.955
5-7
73.092
+11, +2.625
39
Houston
72.955
10-2
62.818
+0, +0.549
40
Florida St
72.401
6-6
73.016
-5, -1.263
41
Texas A&M
72.276
6-6
69.787
+2, +0.296
42
Missouri
72.272
8-4
68.670
-4, -0.301
43
Boston College
72.142
8-4
68.286
-6, -1.193
44
Central Michigan
71.793
10-2
60.189
+2, +0.138
45
Rutgers
71.715
8-3
60.856
+2, +0.173
46
Notre Dame
71.638
6-6
69.582
-1, -0.172
47
Wake Forest
71.317
5-7
70.837
+5, +0.201
48
UCLA
71.274
6-6
72.359
-6, -0.932
49
Air Force
70.906
7-5
63.849
-1, -0.531
50
Wisconsin
70.851
8-3
65.612
+0, -0.424
51
Nevada
70.847
8-4
64.615
+3, +0.452
52
Navy
69.999
8-4
65.572
-11, -2.240
53
South Florida
69.932
7-4
65.634
-9, -1.973
54
Washington
69.926
4-7
72.715
+1, +0.215
55
East Carolina
69.702
8-4
66.178
-2, -0.739
56
Arizona St
69.152
4-8
69.381
+2, +0.103
57
Michigan St
69.111
6-6
66.605
-1, -0.511
58
Fresno St
69.053
7-4
65.464
+2, +0.267
59
Kansas
68.437
5-7
69.484
+2, +0.164
60
Central Florida
68.179
8-4
64.788
+5, +0.450
61
Troy
68.165
9-3
62.178
+5, +0.605
62
Minnesota
67.602
6-6
69.362
+0, -0.555
63
Southern Miss
67.497
7-5
62.213
+0, -0.601
64
Iowa St
67.285
6-6
66.532
+3, -0.188
65
Virginia
67.280
3-9
72.848
-6, -1.512
66
Kansas St
67.241
6-6
67.388
+2, -0.095
67
Temple
66.698
9-3
60.406
-10, -2.704
68
Ohio U.
66.540
9-3
61.327
+12, +2.038
69
Baylor
66.456
4-8
71.049
+3, +0.380
70
Purdue
66.418
5-7
67.408
+0, -0.432
71
Middle Tennessee St
66.339
9-3
59.615
+6, +1.101
72
Duke
66.205
5-7
67.762
-8, -1.865
73
Northwestern
66.156
8-4
62.590
-2, -0.535
74
Louisiana Tech
66.048
3-8
67.341
+0, +0.361
75
North Carolina St
65.928
5-7
67.071
+0, +0.473
76
Bowling Green
65.653
7-5
63.736
+0, +0.310
77
Syracuse
64.497
4-8
68.335
-4, -1.443
78
Northern Illinois
64.311
7-5
58.597
+1, -0.392
79
Marshall
64.224
6-6
66.175
-10, -2.727
80
SMU
63.778
7-5
63.969
-2, -1.188
81
Maryland
63.600
2-10
70.521
+1, -0.242
82
Colorado
63.283
3-9
70.075
+3, +0.068
83
Illinois
63.028
3-8
68.545
+3, -0.057
84
Alabama-Birmingham
63.019
5-7
65.451
-1, -0.749
85
Vanderbilt
62.975
2-10
71.387
+7, +0.962
86
Michigan
62.854
5-7
63.773
-2, -0.442
87
Utah St
62.623
4-8
66.605
+7, +1.142
88
Hawaii
62.589
6-6
62.859
+7, +1.580
89
Idaho
62.270
7-5
64.382
-2, -0.397
90
Louisville
62.243
4-8
68.110
-9, -2.080
91
UNLV
62.225
5-7
66.217
-2, -0.235
92
Buffalo
62.159
5-7
62.290
+1, +0.324
93
Tulsa
62.063
5-7
63.167
-5, -0.402
94
Wyoming
61.985
6-6
67.360
-4, -0.273
95
Indiana
61.556
4-8
65.399
-4, -0.634
96
UTEP
61.344
4-8
63.222
+4, +2.600
97
San Diego St
60.528
4-8
64.962
-1, -0.209
98
Colorado St
59.344
3-9
66.582
-1, -0.501
99
Kent St
58.797
5-7
60.198
+0, -0.656
100
Western Michigan
57.980
5-7
60.297
-2, -1.519
101
Florida Atlantic
57.426
4-7
61.776
+1, -0.700
102
Louisiana-Monroe
57.389
6-6
60.896
-1, -1.054
103
Toledo
57.175
5-7
61.892
+0, -0.437
104
Memphis
56.595
2-10
66.219
+0, +0.654
105
Arkansas St
55.155
3-8
59.304
+0, -0.610
106
Army
55.009
5-6
59.032
+2, +0.164
107
Louisiana-Lafayette
54.915
6-6
60.054
-1, -0.481
108
Washington St
54.736
1-11
73.129
-1, -0.600
109
Ball St
54.457
2-10
62.081
+7, +2.258
110
San Jose St
54.017
2-9
67.219
+0, -0.059
111
Tulane
53.958
3-9
64.814
+1, +0.666
112
Akron
53.625
3-9
61.971
-3, -0.816
113
Miami OH
53.364
1-11
67.163
-2, -0.153
114
Rice
52.756
2-10
66.912
-1, +0.044
115
North Texas
52.498
2-10
60.194
+2, +0.543
116
Florida Int'l
52.397
3-8
65.073
-2, +0.045
117
New Mexico
52.335
1-11
67.756
-2, +0.030
118
New Mexico St
51.047
3-9
62.486
+0, +0.986
119
Eastern Michigan
45.388
0-12
63.020
+0, +0.382
120
Western Kentucky
45.040
0-11
61.979
+0, +1.356

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