With one week to go in the season, it couldn't have gotten much closer at the top! Alabama remains #1 but by less than 0.6 points. This means Alabama will be picked next week but it really is a virtual tie. See this blog entry for more details on a head to head comparison and look for more here later in the week.
Behind the top two, the SEC cleaned up. Buoyed by non-conference wins and upsets in two of the cases over FSU, @GT, and Clemson, nearly every SEC team improved their ratings, some 2 or 3 points leading to 8 teams in the top 24. The bowl games will be interesting to see if this dominance is well deserved.
Naturally the ACC was hurt being the 3 opponents with their ratings doing just the opposite. The championship game between Georgia Tech and Clemson doesn't look nearly as appealing now and GT just lost any chance they had of losing and still get a BCS bowl bid. In fact, the computer says Virginia Tech is the best team in the ACC.
Other than Oklahoma pulling the "upset" (they were favored by Vegas and my computer though), the Big-12 didn't fare that well. Texas was tested by A&M but moreso was just passed by Florida to drop to #3 and they will face a #23 Nebraska in their championship game.
Cincinnati eked by a bad Illinois team and justifiably dropped to #9 in the rankings and will barely be favored in their game against Pittsburgh next weekend. If they win, they deserve the BCS bowl they'll get but if not, an undefeated Boise State should get the at-large pick over them. See this blog entry for thoughts on the BCS at-large teams.
The computer had a blah week against the spread going 25-23-1 and also only went 36-13 picking winners. Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | Schedule | Change |
| 1 | Alabama | 89.492 | 12-0 | 70.589 | +0, +0.334 |
| 2 | Florida | 88.916 | 12-0 | 69.301 | +1, +2.272 |
| 3 | Texas | 87.675 | 12-0 | 68.647 | -1, -0.444 |
| 4 | TCU | 85.300 | 12-0 | 64.855 | +0, -1.251 |
| 5 | Oregon | 82.648 | 9-2 | 72.096 | +0, -0.181 |
| 6 | Boise St | 82.255 | 12-0 | 63.719 | +2, -0.206 |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | 82.027 | 9-3 | 72.175 | +0, -0.487 |
| 8 | Arkansas | 81.389 | 7-5 | 72.652 | +3, +1.428 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | 81.103 | 11-0 | 65.374 | -3, -1.476 |
| 10 | LSU | 80.668 | 9-3 | 72.094 | +3, +1.368 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 80.170 | 7-5 | 70.353 | +4, +1.327 |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | 79.313 | 10-2 | 71.846 | -3, -2.378 |
| 13 | Texas Tech | 79.026 | 8-4 | 67.958 | -1, -0.446 |
| 14 | Miami FL | 78.884 | 9-3 | 71.411 | +0, -0.218 |
| 15 | Oregon St | 78.387 | 8-3 | 68.806 | +2, -0.286 |
| 16 | Stanford | 78.368 | 8-4 | 70.574 | +0, -0.387 |
| 17 | Clemson | 78.243 | 8-4 | 69.708 | -7, -3.156 |
| 18 | Ohio State | 77.961 | 10-2 | 65.862 | +1, -0.443 |
| 19 | Tennessee | 77.529 | 7-5 | 70.619 | +11, +2.217 |
| 20 | Mississippi | 77.470 | 8-4 | 69.685 | +0, -0.574 |
| 21 | Southern Cal | 77.361 | 8-3 | 71.561 | +5, +0.847 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | 77.247 | 9-2 | 67.006 | -4, -1.209 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 77.124 | 9-3 | 67.308 | -2, -0.246 |
| 24 | Auburn | 76.906 | 7-5 | 72.461 | +5, +1.590 |
| 25 | Penn State | 76.529 | 10-2 | 63.982 | -3, -0.740 |
| 26 | Arizona | 76.367 | 7-4 | 70.963 | -1, -0.486 |
| 27 | California | 76.060 | 8-3 | 70.601 | +0, -0.400 |
| 28 | Oklahoma St | 75.946 | 9-3 | 68.832 | -5, -1.235 |
| 29 | North Carolina | 75.206 | 8-4 | 68.874 | -5, -1.894 |
| 30 | Georgia | 75.184 | 7-5 | 73.870 | +10, +2.919 |
| 31 | Connecticut | 74.976 | 6-5 | 68.847 | +0, +0.254 |
| 32 | Iowa | 74.921 | 10-2 | 67.383 | -4, -0.494 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 74.904 | 7-5 | 73.325 | +18, +3.661 |
| 34 | Brigham Young | 74.233 | 10-2 | 66.076 | +0, -0.227 |
| 35 | Utah | 74.138 | 9-3 | 65.699 | -3, -0.436 |
| 36 | West Virginia | 74.135 | 8-3 | 68.427 | -3, -0.401 |
| 37 | Kentucky | 74.131 | 7-5 | 69.253 | -1, +0.752 |
| 38 | Mississippi St | 73.955 | 5-7 | 73.092 | +11, +2.625 |
| 39 | Houston | 72.955 | 10-2 | 62.818 | +0, +0.549 |
| 40 | Florida St | 72.401 | 6-6 | 73.016 | -5, -1.263 |
| 41 | Texas A&M | 72.276 | 6-6 | 69.787 | +2, +0.296 |
| 42 | Missouri | 72.272 | 8-4 | 68.670 | -4, -0.301 |
| 43 | Boston College | 72.142 | 8-4 | 68.286 | -6, -1.193 |
| 44 | Central Michigan | 71.793 | 10-2 | 60.189 | +2, +0.138 |
| 45 | Rutgers | 71.715 | 8-3 | 60.856 | +2, +0.173 |
| 46 | Notre Dame | 71.638 | 6-6 | 69.582 | -1, -0.172 |
| 47 | Wake Forest | 71.317 | 5-7 | 70.837 | +5, +0.201 |
| 48 | UCLA | 71.274 | 6-6 | 72.359 | -6, -0.932 |
| 49 | Air Force | 70.906 | 7-5 | 63.849 | -1, -0.531 |
| 50 | Wisconsin | 70.851 | 8-3 | 65.612 | +0, -0.424 |
| 51 | Nevada | 70.847 | 8-4 | 64.615 | +3, +0.452 |
| 52 | Navy | 69.999 | 8-4 | 65.572 | -11, -2.240 |
| 53 | South Florida | 69.932 | 7-4 | 65.634 | -9, -1.973 |
| 54 | Washington | 69.926 | 4-7 | 72.715 | +1, +0.215 |
| 55 | East Carolina | 69.702 | 8-4 | 66.178 | -2, -0.739 |
| 56 | Arizona St | 69.152 | 4-8 | 69.381 | +2, +0.103 |
| 57 | Michigan St | 69.111 | 6-6 | 66.605 | -1, -0.511 |
| 58 | Fresno St | 69.053 | 7-4 | 65.464 | +2, +0.267 |
| 59 | Kansas | 68.437 | 5-7 | 69.484 | +2, +0.164 |
| 60 | Central Florida | 68.179 | 8-4 | 64.788 | +5, +0.450 |
| 61 | Troy | 68.165 | 9-3 | 62.178 | +5, +0.605 |
| 62 | Minnesota | 67.602 | 6-6 | 69.362 | +0, -0.555 |
| 63 | Southern Miss | 67.497 | 7-5 | 62.213 | +0, -0.601 |
| 64 | Iowa St | 67.285 | 6-6 | 66.532 | +3, -0.188 |
| 65 | Virginia | 67.280 | 3-9 | 72.848 | -6, -1.512 |
| 66 | Kansas St | 67.241 | 6-6 | 67.388 | +2, -0.095 |
| 67 | Temple | 66.698 | 9-3 | 60.406 | -10, -2.704 |
| 68 | Ohio U. | 66.540 | 9-3 | 61.327 | +12, +2.038 |
| 69 | Baylor | 66.456 | 4-8 | 71.049 | +3, +0.380 |
| 70 | Purdue | 66.418 | 5-7 | 67.408 | +0, -0.432 |
| 71 | Middle Tennessee St | 66.339 | 9-3 | 59.615 | +6, +1.101 |
| 72 | Duke | 66.205 | 5-7 | 67.762 | -8, -1.865 |
| 73 | Northwestern | 66.156 | 8-4 | 62.590 | -2, -0.535 |
| 74 | Louisiana Tech | 66.048 | 3-8 | 67.341 | +0, +0.361 |
| 75 | North Carolina St | 65.928 | 5-7 | 67.071 | +0, +0.473 |
| 76 | Bowling Green | 65.653 | 7-5 | 63.736 | +0, +0.310 |
| 77 | Syracuse | 64.497 | 4-8 | 68.335 | -4, -1.443 |
| 78 | Northern Illinois | 64.311 | 7-5 | 58.597 | +1, -0.392 |
| 79 | Marshall | 64.224 | 6-6 | 66.175 | -10, -2.727 |
| 80 | SMU | 63.778 | 7-5 | 63.969 | -2, -1.188 |
| 81 | Maryland | 63.600 | 2-10 | 70.521 | +1, -0.242 |
| 82 | Colorado | 63.283 | 3-9 | 70.075 | +3, +0.068 |
| 83 | Illinois | 63.028 | 3-8 | 68.545 | +3, -0.057 |
| 84 | Alabama-Birmingham | 63.019 | 5-7 | 65.451 | -1, -0.749 |
| 85 | Vanderbilt | 62.975 | 2-10 | 71.387 | +7, +0.962 |
| 86 | Michigan | 62.854 | 5-7 | 63.773 | -2, -0.442 |
| 87 | Utah St | 62.623 | 4-8 | 66.605 | +7, +1.142 |
| 88 | Hawaii | 62.589 | 6-6 | 62.859 | +7, +1.580 |
| 89 | Idaho | 62.270 | 7-5 | 64.382 | -2, -0.397 |
| 90 | Louisville | 62.243 | 4-8 | 68.110 | -9, -2.080 |
| 91 | UNLV | 62.225 | 5-7 | 66.217 | -2, -0.235 |
| 92 | Buffalo | 62.159 | 5-7 | 62.290 | +1, +0.324 |
| 93 | Tulsa | 62.063 | 5-7 | 63.167 | -5, -0.402 |
| 94 | Wyoming | 61.985 | 6-6 | 67.360 | -4, -0.273 |
| 95 | Indiana | 61.556 | 4-8 | 65.399 | -4, -0.634 |
| 96 | UTEP | 61.344 | 4-8 | 63.222 | +4, +2.600 |
| 97 | San Diego St | 60.528 | 4-8 | 64.962 | -1, -0.209 |
| 98 | Colorado St | 59.344 | 3-9 | 66.582 | -1, -0.501 |
| 99 | Kent St | 58.797 | 5-7 | 60.198 | +0, -0.656 |
| 100 | Western Michigan | 57.980 | 5-7 | 60.297 | -2, -1.519 |
| 101 | Florida Atlantic | 57.426 | 4-7 | 61.776 | +1, -0.700 |
| 102 | Louisiana-Monroe | 57.389 | 6-6 | 60.896 | -1, -1.054 |
| 103 | Toledo | 57.175 | 5-7 | 61.892 | +0, -0.437 |
| 104 | Memphis | 56.595 | 2-10 | 66.219 | +0, +0.654 |
| 105 | Arkansas St | 55.155 | 3-8 | 59.304 | +0, -0.610 |
| 106 | Army | 55.009 | 5-6 | 59.032 | +2, +0.164 |
| 107 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 54.915 | 6-6 | 60.054 | -1, -0.481 |
| 108 | Washington St | 54.736 | 1-11 | 73.129 | -1, -0.600 |
| 109 | Ball St | 54.457 | 2-10 | 62.081 | +7, +2.258 |
| 110 | San Jose St | 54.017 | 2-9 | 67.219 | +0, -0.059 |
| 111 | Tulane | 53.958 | 3-9 | 64.814 | +1, +0.666 |
| 112 | Akron | 53.625 | 3-9 | 61.971 | -3, -0.816 |
| 113 | Miami OH | 53.364 | 1-11 | 67.163 | -2, -0.153 |
| 114 | Rice | 52.756 | 2-10 | 66.912 | -1, +0.044 |
| 115 | North Texas | 52.498 | 2-10 | 60.194 | +2, +0.543 |
| 116 | Florida Int'l | 52.397 | 3-8 | 65.073 | -2, +0.045 |
| 117 | New Mexico | 52.335 | 1-11 | 67.756 | -2, +0.030 |
| 118 | New Mexico St | 51.047 | 3-9 | 62.486 | +0, +0.986 |
| 119 | Eastern Michigan | 45.388 | 0-12 | 63.020 | +0, +0.382 |
| 120 | Western Kentucky | 45.040 | 0-11 | 61.979 | +0, +1.356 |
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