Sunday, November 22, 2009

2009 Week 12 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 12 (games played thru 21-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.

Alabama remains #1, in fact increasing their margin over #2 Texas by just over half a ratings point making it right at 1 point now.  Behind them Florida and TCU swap places but are still in a virtual tie just a point and a half behind Texas.  It is interesting to note that in comparing Texas and TCU, they've now played a common opponent, Wyoming, both at Wyoming, with TCU winning by 35 and Texas by 31.  The computer doesn't single out specific games like this but looks at the entire season, but still interesting to see how close they are.

Behind the top teams there isn't much movement until #11 where Arkansas moves up 6 spots to #11 replacing OU who drops 4 to #16.  Texas Tech was the reason OU dropped and they leap 12 spots to #12.  Stanford also drops 4 spots after their loss to #16.

I have added 3 championship games to the schedule for projecting games and that means only 5 are projected to finish undefeated with Alabama beating Florida.

The computer had a good week against the spread going 28-23-1 and had a push with Vegas going 40-12 picking winners.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
89.158
11-0
68.684
+0, +0.119
2
Texas
88.119
11-0
67.892
+0, -0.490
3
Florida
86.644
11-0
67.766
+1, -0.130
4
TCU
86.551
11-0
67.033
-1, -0.488
5
Oregon
82.829
9-2
72.343
+0, -0.567
6
Cincinnati
82.579
10-0
66.504
+0, -0.699
7
Virginia Tech
82.514
8-3
73.320
+1, +0.097
8
Boise St
82.461
11-0
63.140
-1, -0.277
9
Georgia Tech
81.691
10-1
72.457
+1, -0.191
10
Clemson
81.399
8-3
69.505
-1, -0.892
11
Arkansas
79.961
7-4
70.400
+6, +1.220
12
Texas Tech
79.472
7-4
67.975
+12, +2.820
13
LSU
79.300
8-3
70.532
+0, -0.381
14
Miami FL
79.102
8-3
72.198
+1, -0.016
15
Oklahoma
78.843
6-5
70.327
-4, -2.506
16
Stanford
78.755
7-4
70.893
-4, -2.290
17
Oregon St
78.673
8-3
69.196
-3, -0.738
18
Pittsburgh
78.456
9-1
66.692
-2, -0.646
19
Ohio State
78.404
10-2
66.247
-1, -0.161
20
Mississippi
78.044
8-3
68.091
+0, +0.133
21
Nebraska
77.370
8-3
67.531
+0, -0.367
22
Penn State
77.269
10-2
64.755
+5, +1.625
23
Oklahoma St
77.181
9-2
67.191
-4, -1.102
24
North Carolina
77.100
8-3
69.718
+6, +1.652
25
Arizona
76.853
6-4
71.248
-2, -0.430
26
Southern Cal
76.514
7-3
72.110
-4, -0.787
27
California
76.460
8-3
71.057
+4, +1.091
28
Iowa
75.415
10-2
67.883
+0, -0.226
29
Auburn
75.316
7-4
69.999
+3, +0.080
30
Tennessee
75.312
6-5
68.729
-1, -0.311
31
Connecticut
74.722
5-5
69.998
+2, -0.339
32
Utah
74.574
9-2
65.028
+3, +0.096
33
West Virginia
74.536
7-3
68.670
+3, +0.235
34
Brigham Young
74.460
9-2
65.716
+3, +0.820
35
Florida St
73.664
6-5
72.303
-1, -1.286
36
Kentucky
73.379
7-4
67.796
+10, +1.238
37
Boston College
73.335
7-4
69.157
-11, -2.481
38
Missouri
72.573
7-4
68.779
+3, -0.074
39
Houston
72.406
9-2
63.716
+11, +0.522
40
Georgia
72.265
6-5
71.938
-2, -1.319
41
Navy
72.239
8-3
65.969
+2, -0.233
42
UCLA
72.206
6-5
71.641
+5, +0.110
43
Texas A&M
71.980
6-5
68.283
+11, +1.475
44
South Florida
71.905
7-3
65.221
-2, -0.596
45
Notre Dame
71.810
6-5
68.952
-5, -1.049
46
Central Michigan
71.655
9-2
60.312
-1, -0.570
47
Rutgers
71.542
7-3
61.021
-22, -4.419
48
Air Force
71.437
7-5
64.345
-9, -1.684
49
Mississippi St
71.330
4-7
72.300
-1, -0.676
50
Wisconsin
71.275
8-3
65.990
-6, -0.951
51
South Carolina
71.243
6-5
72.116
+0, -0.021
52
Wake Forest
71.116
4-7
71.857
-3, -0.873
53
East Carolina
70.441
7-4
66.988
+5, +0.879
54
Nevada
70.395
8-3
62.496
-1, -0.347
55
Washington
69.711
3-7
74.866
+0, -0.784
56
Michigan St
69.622
6-6
67.122
-4, -1.370
57
Temple
69.402
9-2
59.831
+7, +1.307
58
Arizona St
69.049
4-7
69.103
-2, -1.188
59
Virginia
68.792
3-8
73.402
+0, -0.139
60
Fresno St
68.786
7-4
65.306
-3, -1.010
61
Kansas
68.273
5-6
69.301
+1, +0.001
62
Minnesota
68.157
6-6
69.940
+1, +0.004
63
Southern Miss
68.098
7-4
61.784
+3, +0.128
64
Duke
68.070
5-6
68.356
-4, -0.345
65
Central Florida
67.729
7-4
64.895
+5, +0.897
66
Troy
67.560
8-3
62.207
+3, +0.617
67
Iowa St
67.473
6-6
66.717
-2, -0.526
68
Kansas St
67.336
6-6
67.452
+0, +0.271
69
Marshall
66.951
6-5
66.564
-2, -0.335
70
Purdue
66.850
5-7
67.806
+3, +0.896
71
Northwestern
66.691
8-4
62.983
+1, +0.716
72
Baylor
66.076
4-7
70.408
-11, -2.280
73
Syracuse
65.940
4-7
68.327
+14, +3.005
74
Louisiana Tech
65.687
3-8
66.948
+2, +0.446
75
North Carolina St
65.455
4-7
67.113
-4, -0.875
76
Bowling Green
65.343
6-5
64.559
-1, -0.181
77
Middle Tennessee St
65.238
8-3
59.486
+0, +0.454
78
SMU
64.966
6-5
65.532
+0, +0.221
79
Northern Illinois
64.703
7-4
57.096
-5, -1.118
80
Ohio U.
64.502
8-3
60.779
-1, -0.000
81
Louisville
64.323
4-7
68.705
+0, +0.159
82
Maryland
63.842
2-9
71.257
+1, +0.229
83
Alabama-Birmingham
63.768
5-6
65.688
-3, -0.550
84
Michigan
63.296
5-7
64.157
+0, -0.256
85
Colorado
63.215
3-8
70.017
+6, +1.207
86
Illinois
63.085
3-7
67.487
+0, -0.066
87
Idaho
62.667
7-4
64.588
-2, -0.565
88
Tulsa
62.465
4-7
63.826
+1, +0.038
89
UNLV
62.460
4-7
67.220
-1, -0.136
90
Wyoming
62.258
5-6
68.335
+0, +0.199
91
Indiana
62.190
4-8
66.043
-9, -1.660
92
Vanderbilt
62.013
2-10
70.289
+0, +0.216
93
Buffalo
61.835
4-7
62.387
+5, +1.183
94
Utah St
61.481
3-8
66.478
-1, -0.212
95
Hawaii
61.009
5-6
62.374
+2, +0.139
96
San Diego St
60.737
4-7
65.285
-2, -0.819
97
Colorado St
59.845
3-8
67.682
-1, -1.095
98
Western Michigan
59.499
5-6
61.301
+1, -0.650
99
Kent St
59.453
5-6
60.578
-4, -1.747
100
UTEP
58.744
3-8
63.349
+2, -0.507
101
Louisiana-Monroe
58.443
6-5
60.622
-1, -1.048
102
Florida Atlantic
58.126
3-7
63.499
-1, -1.147
103
Toledo
57.612
5-6
61.528
+0, +0.157
104
Memphis
55.941
2-9
66.215
+1, -0.220
105
Arkansas St
55.765
2-8
60.677
-1, -1.333
106
Louisiana-Lafayette
55.396
6-5
59.574
+3, +0.266
107
Washington St
55.336
1-10
73.284
-1, -0.160
108
Army
54.845
5-6
59.028
+2, -0.142
109
Akron
54.441
2-9
64.058
+2, -0.157
110
San Jose St
54.076
1-9
68.873
-3, -1.332
111
Miami OH
53.517
1-11
67.538
-3, -1.832
112
Tulane
53.292
3-8
64.639
+0, -0.558
113
Rice
52.712
2-9
66.301
+3, +0.906
114
Florida Int'l
52.352
3-8
64.727
+1, -0.202
115
New Mexico
52.305
1-10
66.068
+2, +1.372
116
Ball St
52.199
1-10
61.842
-3, -0.714
117
North Texas
51.955
2-9
59.864
-3, -0.930
118
New Mexico St
50.061
3-8
62.522
+0, -0.071
119
Eastern Michigan
45.006
0-11
63.847
+0, -1.607
120
Western Kentucky
43.684
0-10
62.310
+0, -0.132