Monday, November 16, 2009

Yet another BCS comparison

It is that time again for a BCS comparison.  Below is a table listing the overall BCS ranking, my computer's ranking for the same team, and where the BCS computers have the team ranked on average.

The top-7 is actually pretty close with no egregious errors, although my computer says LSU, Pittsburgh, and Ohio St. are a bit high but after that things start to get more interesting.

The polls and BCS computers seem to like Iowa at #13 and #12, but my computer has them all the way down at #28.  They seem to be forgetting narrow wins over Norther Iowa (FCS, 1 point), Arkansas St (2-7, 3 points, and Michigan (5-6, 2 points) all at home, and 2 losses in a row at this point.  Yes, they lost their quarterback, but if he is that crucial and they don't have him, #13 and #12 is too high.

Penn State is also too high at #14 and #21, my computer having them at #27.  Yes they are 9-2 but their schedule strength is #88 among FBS schools.  They lost to the only two teams they've played ranked above #63.

On the other hand Virginia Tech should be higher than the #15/#13 the polls and computers have them at.  My computer has them #8 based on a #2 schedule strength including wins over #15 Miami, #21 Nebraska, and #26 Boston College.

Continuing the trend of Big-Televen schools being overrated, Wisconsin at #16/#19 is way to high, the computer having them at #44.  Their schedule strength is #71 and their only compelling wins are over losing teams (Purdue and Michigan) and they've lost to the only teams they've played ranked above #52.

While the Big-Televen is certainly where the most bias is in overrating teams, they aren't alone.  The polls and computers also give too much weight to great records with no substance in ranking Utah #21/#20 (my computer has them #35) and BYU #22/#27 (my computer has them #37).  Their schedules are #75 and #78 respectively and they've lost to the only good teams they've played.  And Houston shouldn't even be considered, my computer having them at #50, as their schedule is #85 and they've lost to 3-7 and #102 UTEP and 6-4 and #70 Central Florida.  They also eked out a 1 point win against #89 and 4-6 Tulsa.

Thoughts?

Team BCS Schmidt BCS Computers
Florida 1 4 1
Alabama 2 1 2
Texas 3 2 4
TCU 4 3 5
Cincinnati 5 6 3
Boise St 6 7 7
Georgia Tech 7 10 6
LSU 8 13 8
Pittsburgh 9 16 10
Ohio St 10 18 11
Oregon 11 5 9
Oklahoma St 12 19 15
Iowa 13 28 12
Penn St 14 27 21
Virginia Tech 15 8 13
Wisconsin 16 44 19
Stanford 17 12 17
USC 18 22 14
Oregon St 19 14 16
Miami (FL) 20 15 18
Utah 21 35 20
BYU 22 37 27
Clemson 23 9 23
Houston 24 50 26
California 25 31 21