Tuesday, November 3, 2009

2009 Week 8 NFL Projected Records

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 8 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

New Orleans remains projected to finish undefeated but at a slightly lower chance than last week which is a bit odd.  This is due to most of their future opponents improving slightly this past week and Atlanta, who they have to play again on the road, showing they could play with them.  In fact, they are nearly projected to have 1-loss as that has a 41.7% chance and undefeated is at 43%.

There is now a pack behind them at 13-3, the surprise to me being that Indianapolis is listed there.  They are 7-0 now which means the computer projects a 6-3 finish for them.  But with New England, @Baltimore, @Houston, and Denver still on the schedule, you can see how one might reach that conclusion.  Note that 14-2 is only slightly behind 13-3 at 26.5% compared to 28%.

If the projections are correct, the AFC playoff teams would be Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, New England, along with wildcards Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  The NFC would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Dallas, and one of Arizona or San Francisco, along with wildcards being Atlanta and Philadelphia.

For reference, last year at this time in the AFC the projections included all 6 playoff teams as either in or tied for the last spot while in the NFC, 3 of the 6 playoff teams were picked at this point.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
43.0
0.0
41.7
Indianapolis
13-3
28.1
26.5
18.3
Denver
13-3
34.4
24.0
24.1
Minnesota
13-3
32.0
22.3
24.7
Cincinnati
11-5
29.4
19.8
25.3
Dallas
11-5
31.1
19.6
26.6
Atlanta
10-6
31.0
27.6
19.1
Pittsburgh
10-6
28.5
25.7
18.9
Baltimore
10-6
28.8
24.5
20.6
New England
10-6
27.5
24.1
19.8
Philadelphia
10-6
26.9
18.9
24.5
Arizona
9-7
26.9
26.3
17.0
Houston
9-7
29.5
24.5
20.9
San Diego
9-7
29.8
23.9
21.6
Green Bay
9-7
28.4
22.0
22.4
NY Giants
9-7
29.3
20.4
24.9
San Francisco
9-7
28.0
19.8
24.2
NY Jets
9-7
30.4
19.3
26.5
Chicago
9-7
27.2
18.7
24.8
Miami
9-7
26.3
16.2
26.2
Jacksonville
6-10
26.6
25.6
17.0
Buffalo
6-10
28.7
24.3
20.4
Seattle
6-10
28.1
23.8
20.3
Carolina
5-11
33.1
29.6
16.7
Oakland
5-11
31.6
19.3
27.7
Tennessee
5-11
26.4
17.6
25.4
Cleveland
4-12
29.8
23.3
22.3
Kansas City
3-13
33.3
22.7
25.3
St Louis
3-13
32.4
20.8
27.4
Washington
2-14
43.2
40.6
0.0
Detroit
2-14
35.6
30.3
16.6
Tampa Bay
0-16
44.8
39.0
0.0

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