Tuesday, November 17, 2009

2009 Week 10 NFL Projections

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 10 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

At the top, New Orleans is projected to finish with 1-loss but still has a 22% chance of finishing undefeated.  Between hosting New England and Dallas and having to visit Atlanta and Carolina, the computer says the most likely event is 1 loss.

Close behind them, Indianapolis, even after getting by New England, is projected to have 2 losses.  The next two weeks visiting Baltimore and Houston are the most likely spots, but they still have Jacksonville on the road too as well as Denver and the Jets if those teams get it back on track.  Indy does still have an 8% chance of going undefeated.

With 11 teams projected at 10-6 or better, someone is going to make the playoffs with a 9-7 record, and actually, with the strength of the AFC and 7 of those 11 being from the AFC, a 10-6 team could be left out of the playoffs.  Presently that will be one of Baltimore, San Diego, or Denver, which would all be 10-6 with the West and a Wildcard to be chosen from them.  Denver and San Diego have the best shot at getting to 11 wins but Baltimore has the tie-breaker over both should it come to that, so there is a good chance that this weeks Denver vs San Diego game will decide who wins the west and Baltimore will be the wildcard.  The other AFC playoff teams would be Indy, Cincy, New England, and Pittsburgh.  Houston appears to be the only team with a shot to join the wildcard battle with a 24% chance of getting to 10-6.

In the NFC there is less ambiguity as there are 6 teams that are separated from the rest but 2 of those are only 9-7.  The playoff teams would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, Atlanta, and Philly.  All of Green Bay, the Giants, and San Francisco have a better than 20% chance of getting to 9-7 as well though so it could be interesting.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
43.0
0.0
41.7
Indianapolis
13-3
28.1
26.5
18.3
Denver
13-3
34.4
24.0
24.1
Minnesota
13-3
32.0
22.3
24.7
Cincinnati
11-5
29.4
19.8
25.3
Dallas
11-5
31.1
19.6
26.6
Atlanta
10-6
31.0
27.6
19.1
Pittsburgh
10-6
28.5
25.7
18.9
Baltimore
10-6
28.8
24.5
20.6
New England
10-6
27.5
24.1
19.8
Philadelphia
10-6
26.9
18.9
24.5
Arizona
9-7
26.9
26.3
17.0
Houston
9-7
29.5
24.5
20.9
San Diego
9-7
29.8
23.9
21.6
Green Bay
9-7
28.4
22.0
22.4
NY Giants
9-7
29.3
20.4
24.9
San Francisco
9-7
28.0
19.8
24.2
NY Jets
9-7
30.4
19.3
26.5
Chicago
9-7
27.2
18.7
24.8
Miami
9-7
26.3
16.2
26.2
Jacksonville
6-10
26.6
25.6
17.0
Buffalo
6-10
28.7
24.3
20.4
Seattle
6-10
28.1
23.8
20.3
Carolina
5-11
33.1
29.6
16.7
Oakland
5-11
31.6
19.3
27.7
Tennessee
5-11
26.4
17.6
25.4
Cleveland
4-12
29.8
23.3
22.3
Kansas City
3-13
33.3
22.7
25.3
St Louis
3-13
32.4
20.8
27.4
Washington
2-14
43.2
40.6
0.0
Detroit
2-14
35.6
30.3
16.6
Tampa Bay
0-16
44.8
39.0
0.0