Monday, November 23, 2009

2009 Week 11 NFL Projections

Below are the projected end of regular season records after week 11 of the NFL season.  These can also be found regularly at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/nfl-projections.

At the top, New Orleans is projected to finish with 1-loss but still has a 27% chance of finishing undefeated.  Between hosting New England and Dallas and having to visit Atlanta and Carolina, the computer says the most likely event is 1 loss.  Close behind them, Indianapolis, after narrowly getting past Baltimore, is now projected to have 1 loss with a 19% chance of no losses.

The projected AFC playoff teams are presently Indy, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, with Pittsburgh and then one of Baltimore, Denver, or Jacksonville as wildcards at 9-7.  In the NFC the playoff teams would be New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona, and Dallas or Philly with Philly or Dallas and then one of the Giants, Green Bay, and Atlanta.

Format below is team, most likely record, chance of that record, chance of 1 game better, and chance of 1 game worse.

Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
Team
Record
% chance
% +1
% -1
New Orleans
16-0
43.0
0.0
41.7
Indianapolis
13-3
28.1
26.5
18.3
Denver
13-3
34.4
24.0
24.1
Minnesota
13-3
32.0
22.3
24.7
Cincinnati
11-5
29.4
19.8
25.3
Dallas
11-5
31.1
19.6
26.6
Atlanta
10-6
31.0
27.6
19.1
Pittsburgh
10-6
28.5
25.7
18.9
Baltimore
10-6
28.8
24.5
20.6
New England
10-6
27.5
24.1
19.8
Philadelphia
10-6
26.9
18.9
24.5
Arizona
9-7
26.9
26.3
17.0
Houston
9-7
29.5
24.5
20.9
San Diego
9-7
29.8
23.9
21.6
Green Bay
9-7
28.4
22.0
22.4
NY Giants
9-7
29.3
20.4
24.9
San Francisco
9-7
28.0
19.8
24.2
NY Jets
9-7
30.4
19.3
26.5
Chicago
9-7
27.2
18.7
24.8
Miami
9-7
26.3
16.2
26.2
Jacksonville
6-10
26.6
25.6
17.0
Buffalo
6-10
28.7
24.3
20.4
Seattle
6-10
28.1
23.8
20.3
Carolina
5-11
33.1
29.6
16.7
Oakland
5-11
31.6
19.3
27.7
Tennessee
5-11
26.4
17.6
25.4
Cleveland
4-12
29.8
23.3
22.3
Kansas City
3-13
33.3
22.7
25.3
St Louis
3-13
32.4
20.8
27.4
Washington
2-14
43.2
40.6
0.0
Detroit
2-14
35.6
30.3
16.6
Tampa Bay
0-16
44.8
39.0
0.0