Thursday, November 26, 2009

Turkey Day Football Preview

Thanksgiving is always something I look forward to for many reasons, two of which are the food and watching football.  I'll likely do too much of the former today, but what is in store for us for the latter?  Full picks for college and the NFL are available, but I'll highlight the 4 key games today below.

The day gets started with Green Bay at Detroit.  The game would likely be more interesting with Stafford playing, but hopefully Culpepper will not be the same dropoff for Detroit that Simms was for Denver.  Assuming the teams play according to the ratings, the computer likes Green Bay by 8.1 which is less than the 11 point spread.  The teams rating charts below.


In the afternoon we have Oakland at Dallas which is perhaps even a less compelling game with Vegas having Dallas as a 2 touchdown favorite while the computer picks them by 12.  But with Dallas' last 2 games, even with one being a win, being two of their worst games of the season and Oakland coming off arguably their best, we can hope for a competitive game.

The evening NFL game is the Giants at Denver.  While neither team is highly ranked currently, it does have the makings of a great game as both teams are trying to turn around what looked like good seasons early but have gone downhill the past few weeks, and stay in the playoff race in their divisions.  As can be seen in the chart below, Denver has had two completely different seasons, oddly the bye week was when things changed, and the Giants were in the same boat but seem to have righted the ship last week.  The computer still gives Denver some credit, especially with them playing at home and picks them by 2.2 while Vegas has the Giants by 7.  Which teams will show up?

And not to be overlooked, in college, Texas visits Texas A&M hoping to keep their BCS championship game hopes alive where they are the Vegas pick by 22 while the computer likes them by only 13.1.  Texas has been pretty consistent but Texas A&M hasn't so the result of this game will hinge on what Texas A&M team shows up.


If you like the charts above and want to see more, or are just interested in seeing detailed picks against the spread for all of the college and NFL games, take a look at the newsletter subscription now available at half price for the remainder of the season.