2009 Week 10 College Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 10 (games played thru 31-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the Nevada at San Jose State game played this evening will be included in week 10 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

And we have a new #1, but very narrowly.  Alabama's win over LSU, aided as it may have been by the replay official, propelled them to #1 over Florida by less than 0.1 ratings points.  It really is a virtual tie and with 2 degrees of separation four different ways, the computer is pretty confident they are indeed this close.  Texas had the misfortune of hosting Central Florida, but also had prior opponents Oklahoma get beat and Wyoming completely throttled which didn't help their rating which dropped them to #3.  But they are still right there and, should they stay undefeated, move to #2 (or #1?) after Alabama and Florida play, if not sooner.

Behind the top-3, BCS buster contender TCU moves to #4 ahead of Cincinnati.  Oregon loses over 4 ratings points, the most of any team in the top-25, and drops 2 spots, but Boise State also drops over 3 ratings points and 1 spot after their narrower than expected win leaving them just behind Oregon.

Iowa is no longer among the unbeatens dropping 12 spots all the way to #26.  The computer didn't pick the upset, but never over ranked them like the human polls did.  And having to go to Ohio State next week likely means loss #2 especially with their QB apparently out.  That leaves 6 teams undefeated and all are projected to stay that way.

The computer had a second fantastic week in a row going 40-15 against the spread took it to Vegas going 41-14 picking winners against Vegas' 36-19.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	87.963	9-0	70.205	+2, -0.562
2	Florida	87.883	9-0	69.258	-1, -1.395
3	Texas	87.412	9-0	67.516	-1, -1.455
4	TCU	85.806	9-0	67.274	+3, -0.518
5	Cincinnati	85.027	9-0	67.020	+0, -2.230
6	Oregon	83.613	7-2	73.120	-2, -4.244
7	Boise St	83.407	9-0	65.073	-1, -3.252
8	Clemson	81.563	6-3	70.240	+5, +0.276
9	Virginia Tech	81.327	6-3	74.495	+1, -0.299
10	LSU	81.139	7-2	71.087	-1, -0.618
11	Georgia Tech	80.555	9-1	72.468	+0, -1.054
12	Oklahoma	80.351	5-4	69.436	-4, -2.007
13	Southern Cal	80.100	7-2	73.193	-1, -1.423
14	Ohio State	79.942	8-2	66.614	+8, +1.981
15	Pittsburgh	79.580	8-1	66.555	+1, -0.048
16	Miami FL	79.518	7-2	72.262	+4, +0.564
17	Stanford	79.487	6-3	71.496	+6, +1.612
18	Oregon St	79.075	6-3	71.784	+7, +1.689
19	Arizona	78.527	6-2	70.039	-1, -0.839
20	Tennessee	78.266	5-4	68.515	-3, -1.331
21	Texas Tech	77.754	6-3	65.354	-2, -1.412
22	Oklahoma St	77.723	7-2	66.692	+2, +0.325
23	Arkansas	77.532	5-4	71.265	+3, +0.237
24	Penn State	76.723	8-2	65.260	-9, -3.494
25	Nebraska	76.543	6-3	67.930	+3, +0.081
26	Iowa	75.839	9-1	68.412	-12, -4.926
27	Auburn	75.626	7-3	68.564	+2, -0.712
28	Mississippi	75.541	6-3	67.097	+3, -0.198
29	Boston College	75.465	6-3	68.658	+1, -0.612
30	Utah	75.173	8-1	63.432	-3, -1.825
31	California	74.915	6-3	70.223	-10, -3.481
32	South Florida	74.753	6-2	63.711	+0, -0.725
33	Connecticut	74.294	4-5	69.996	+14, +1.371
34	Brigham Young	74.192	7-2	66.811	+1, -0.066
35	Fresno St	73.603	6-3	66.156	+1, -0.643
36	Houston	73.443	8-1	64.502	-3, -1.582
37	Georgia	73.348	5-4	72.898	+1, -0.660
38	West Virginia	73.346	7-2	66.316	+1, -0.418
39	Wake Forest	73.336	4-6	72.342	+14, +1.150
40	Rutgers	73.071	6-2	60.005	+2, -0.480
41	Florida St	72.927	4-5	73.670	-1, -0.740
42	Notre Dame	72.774	6-3	68.276	-8, -1.612
43	North Carolina	72.731	6-3	66.824	+8, +0.424
44	Mississippi St	72.586	4-5	70.238	+0, -0.903
45	UCLA	72.492	4-5	75.009	-8, -1.599
46	Wisconsin	72.476	7-2	67.671	-3, -1.070
47	Kentucky	72.410	5-4	68.755	-2, -0.924
48	Air Force	72.124	6-4	62.955	-2, -1.111
49	Navy	72.094	7-3	66.577	+8, +0.723
50	Washington	72.092	3-6	75.600	-1, -0.702
51	Central Michigan	71.963	7-2	62.623	-1, -0.729
52	Texas A&M	71.596	5-4	66.699	-11, -2.007
53	Michigan St	71.247	5-5	66.841	+5, -0.043
54	Arizona St	71.233	4-5	67.534	+1, -0.220
55	South Carolina	70.908	6-4	70.847	-7, -1.919
56	Missouri	69.796	5-4	68.009	-4, -2.430
57	Kansas St	69.412	6-4	66.443	+4, -0.732
58	Kansas	69.309	5-4	66.448	-2, -2.078
59	Duke	69.212	5-4	65.133	-5, -2.325
60	Minnesota	68.944	5-5	70.170	+0, -1.729
61	Iowa St	68.580	5-5	67.440	-2, -2.476
62	Virginia	68.509	3-6	72.105	+1, -1.630
63	Troy	68.271	7-2	61.621	+1, -1.797
64	Baylor	67.941	4-5	68.688	+10, +1.608
65	Marshall	67.774	5-4	66.656	+3, +0.510
66	Northern Illinois	67.768	6-3	58.319	+0, -0.123
67	Temple	67.623	7-2	61.253	-5, -2.520
68	Nevada	66.979	5-3	63.615	-3, -1.203
69	Purdue	66.953	4-6	69.321	+4, +0.590
70	East Carolina	66.695	5-4	66.024	+2, +0.129
71	North Carolina St	66.673	4-5	64.952	-4, -0.658
72	Southern Miss	66.664	5-4	61.365	-3, -0.315
73	Northwestern	65.806	6-4	62.987	+19, +2.785
74	Louisville	65.099	3-6	69.427	+3, -0.521
75	Michigan	65.096	5-5	63.277	-5, -1.522
76	SMU	65.039	5-4	65.542	-5, -1.577
77	Ohio U.	64.773	6-3	61.751	-1, -0.896
78	Bowling Green	64.700	4-5	67.085	-3, -1.404
79	Central Florida	64.667	5-4	64.657	+7, +0.677
80	Illinois	64.462	3-6	68.614	+8, +0.886
81	Middle Tennessee St	64.423	6-3	61.323	-2, -0.724
82	Indiana	64.309	4-6	66.059	+1, +0.272
83	Tulsa	64.117	4-5	62.414	+6, +0.549
84	Idaho	64.039	7-3	63.839	-6, -1.342
85	Louisiana Tech	63.845	3-6	64.018	-1, -0.176
86	Alabama-Birmingham	63.412	4-5	64.942	+7, +0.822
87	Maryland	63.351	2-7	70.102	-6, -1.116
88	Syracuse	63.050	3-6	68.936	+2, -0.515
89	San Diego St	62.698	4-5	64.851	-9, -1.859
90	UNLV	62.433	4-6	65.600	+12, +1.530
91	Louisiana-Monroe	61.850	5-4	64.198	+6, +0.022
92	Kent St	61.699	5-5	60.917	-7, -2.302
93	Colorado	61.666	3-6	68.552	+2, -0.329
94	Vanderbilt	61.596	2-8	68.754	+5, +0.160
95	Utah St	61.018	2-7	67.047	-13, -3.289
96	Buffalo	60.764	3-6	63.026	+2, -0.742
97	Hawaii	60.618	3-6	65.089	+7, +1.068
98	Western Michigan	60.533	4-6	63.999	-2, -1.461
99	Arkansas St	60.454	2-6	60.496	-12, -3.511
100	Colorado St	60.394	3-7	68.473	-9, -2.970
101	Wyoming	60.374	4-5	66.288	-7, -1.799
102	San Jose St	59.636	1-6	73.324	-1, -1.535
103	UTEP	59.461	3-6	64.223	-3, -1.830
104	Toledo	58.324	4-5	62.981	+1, -0.669
105	Florida Atlantic	57.775	2-6	64.211	-2, -2.628
106	Miami OH	57.092	1-9	69.637	+4, +0.829
107	Memphis	56.493	2-7	65.272	+2, +0.224
108	Washington St	56.456	1-8	74.367	-1, -0.601
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	56.393	5-4	60.081	+2, +0.553
110	Army	56.245	3-6	62.777	-4, -1.270
111	Akron	56.143	2-7	63.751	+2, +1.719
112	Tulane	55.300	3-6	65.493	+3, +1.507
113	North Texas	53.786	2-7	61.436	-5, -2.988
114	Florida Int'l	52.932	2-7	64.656	-2, -1.804
115	Ball St	52.321	1-8	61.069	-1, -1.618
116	New Mexico St	50.752	3-6	62.264	+0, -1.412
117	Rice	49.356	0-9	68.455	+2, +3.585
118	New Mexico	49.196	0-9	66.669	+0, -0.071
119	Eastern Michigan	48.169	0-9	65.450	-2, -1.803
120	Western Kentucky	42.152	0-9	63.549	+0, -0.379