Sunday, November 8, 2009

2009 Week 10 College Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 10 (games played thru 31-Oct).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the Nevada at San Jose State game played this evening will be included in week 10 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

And we have a new #1, but very narrowly.  Alabama's win over LSU, aided as it may have been by the replay official, propelled them to #1 over Florida by less than 0.1 ratings points.  It really is a virtual tie and with 2 degrees of separation four different ways, the computer is pretty confident they are indeed this close.  Texas had the misfortune of hosting Central Florida, but also had prior opponents Oklahoma get beat and Wyoming completely throttled which didn't help their rating which dropped them to #3.  But they are still right there and, should they stay undefeated, move to #2 (or #1?) after Alabama and Florida play, if not sooner.

Behind the top-3, BCS buster contender TCU moves to #4 ahead of Cincinnati.  Oregon loses over 4 ratings points, the most of any team in the top-25, and drops 2 spots, but Boise State also drops over 3 ratings points and 1 spot after their narrower than expected win leaving them just behind Oregon.

Iowa is no longer among the unbeatens dropping 12 spots all the way to #26.  The computer didn't pick the upset, but never over ranked them like the human polls did.  And having to go to Ohio State next week likely means loss #2 especially with their QB apparently out.  That leaves 6 teams undefeated and all are projected to stay that way.

The computer had a second fantastic week in a row going 40-15 against the spread took it to Vegas going 41-14 picking winners against Vegas' 36-19.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
87.963
9-0
70.205
+2, -0.562
2
Florida
87.883
9-0
69.258
-1, -1.395
3
Texas
87.412
9-0
67.516
-1, -1.455
4
TCU
85.806
9-0
67.274
+3, -0.518
5
Cincinnati
85.027
9-0
67.020
+0, -2.230
6
Oregon
83.613
7-2
73.120
-2, -4.244
7
Boise St
83.407
9-0
65.073
-1, -3.252
8
Clemson
81.563
6-3
70.240
+5, +0.276
9
Virginia Tech
81.327
6-3
74.495
+1, -0.299
10
LSU
81.139
7-2
71.087
-1, -0.618
11
Georgia Tech
80.555
9-1
72.468
+0, -1.054
12
Oklahoma
80.351
5-4
69.436
-4, -2.007
13
Southern Cal
80.100
7-2
73.193
-1, -1.423
14
Ohio State
79.942
8-2
66.614
+8, +1.981
15
Pittsburgh
79.580
8-1
66.555
+1, -0.048
16
Miami FL
79.518
7-2
72.262
+4, +0.564
17
Stanford
79.487
6-3
71.496
+6, +1.612
18
Oregon St
79.075
6-3
71.784
+7, +1.689
19
Arizona
78.527
6-2
70.039
-1, -0.839
20
Tennessee
78.266
5-4
68.515
-3, -1.331
21
Texas Tech
77.754
6-3
65.354
-2, -1.412
22
Oklahoma St
77.723
7-2
66.692
+2, +0.325
23
Arkansas
77.532
5-4
71.265
+3, +0.237
24
Penn State
76.723
8-2
65.260
-9, -3.494
25
Nebraska
76.543
6-3
67.930
+3, +0.081
26
Iowa
75.839
9-1
68.412
-12, -4.926
27
Auburn
75.626
7-3
68.564
+2, -0.712
28
Mississippi
75.541
6-3
67.097
+3, -0.198
29
Boston College
75.465
6-3
68.658
+1, -0.612
30
Utah
75.173
8-1
63.432
-3, -1.825
31
California
74.915
6-3
70.223
-10, -3.481
32
South Florida
74.753
6-2
63.711
+0, -0.725
33
Connecticut
74.294
4-5
69.996
+14, +1.371
34
Brigham Young
74.192
7-2
66.811
+1, -0.066
35
Fresno St
73.603
6-3
66.156
+1, -0.643
36
Houston
73.443
8-1
64.502
-3, -1.582
37
Georgia
73.348
5-4
72.898
+1, -0.660
38
West Virginia
73.346
7-2
66.316
+1, -0.418
39
Wake Forest
73.336
4-6
72.342
+14, +1.150
40
Rutgers
73.071
6-2
60.005
+2, -0.480
41
Florida St
72.927
4-5
73.670
-1, -0.740
42
Notre Dame
72.774
6-3
68.276
-8, -1.612
43
North Carolina
72.731
6-3
66.824
+8, +0.424
44
Mississippi St
72.586
4-5
70.238
+0, -0.903
45
UCLA
72.492
4-5
75.009
-8, -1.599
46
Wisconsin
72.476
7-2
67.671
-3, -1.070
47
Kentucky
72.410
5-4
68.755
-2, -0.924
48
Air Force
72.124
6-4
62.955
-2, -1.111
49
Navy
72.094
7-3
66.577
+8, +0.723
50
Washington
72.092
3-6
75.600
-1, -0.702
51
Central Michigan
71.963
7-2
62.623
-1, -0.729
52
Texas A&M
71.596
5-4
66.699
-11, -2.007
53
Michigan St
71.247
5-5
66.841
+5, -0.043
54
Arizona St
71.233
4-5
67.534
+1, -0.220
55
South Carolina
70.908
6-4
70.847
-7, -1.919
56
Missouri
69.796
5-4
68.009
-4, -2.430
57
Kansas St
69.412
6-4
66.443
+4, -0.732
58
Kansas
69.309
5-4
66.448
-2, -2.078
59
Duke
69.212
5-4
65.133
-5, -2.325
60
Minnesota
68.944
5-5
70.170
+0, -1.729
61
Iowa St
68.580
5-5
67.440
-2, -2.476
62
Virginia
68.509
3-6
72.105
+1, -1.630
63
Troy
68.271
7-2
61.621
+1, -1.797
64
Baylor
67.941
4-5
68.688
+10, +1.608
65
Marshall
67.774
5-4
66.656
+3, +0.510
66
Northern Illinois
67.768
6-3
58.319
+0, -0.123
67
Temple
67.623
7-2
61.253
-5, -2.520
68
Nevada
66.979
5-3
63.615
-3, -1.203
69
Purdue
66.953
4-6
69.321
+4, +0.590
70
East Carolina
66.695
5-4
66.024
+2, +0.129
71
North Carolina St
66.673
4-5
64.952
-4, -0.658
72
Southern Miss
66.664
5-4
61.365
-3, -0.315
73
Northwestern
65.806
6-4
62.987
+19, +2.785
74
Louisville
65.099
3-6
69.427
+3, -0.521
75
Michigan
65.096
5-5
63.277
-5, -1.522
76
SMU
65.039
5-4
65.542
-5, -1.577
77
Ohio U.
64.773
6-3
61.751
-1, -0.896
78
Bowling Green
64.700
4-5
67.085
-3, -1.404
79
Central Florida
64.667
5-4
64.657
+7, +0.677
80
Illinois
64.462
3-6
68.614
+8, +0.886
81
Middle Tennessee St
64.423
6-3
61.323
-2, -0.724
82
Indiana
64.309
4-6
66.059
+1, +0.272
83
Tulsa
64.117
4-5
62.414
+6, +0.549
84
Idaho
64.039
7-3
63.839
-6, -1.342
85
Louisiana Tech
63.845
3-6
64.018
-1, -0.176
86
Alabama-Birmingham
63.412
4-5
64.942
+7, +0.822
87
Maryland
63.351
2-7
70.102
-6, -1.116
88
Syracuse
63.050
3-6
68.936
+2, -0.515
89
San Diego St
62.698
4-5
64.851
-9, -1.859
90
UNLV
62.433
4-6
65.600
+12, +1.530
91
Louisiana-Monroe
61.850
5-4
64.198
+6, +0.022
92
Kent St
61.699
5-5
60.917
-7, -2.302
93
Colorado
61.666
3-6
68.552
+2, -0.329
94
Vanderbilt
61.596
2-8
68.754
+5, +0.160
95
Utah St
61.018
2-7
67.047
-13, -3.289
96
Buffalo
60.764
3-6
63.026
+2, -0.742
97
Hawaii
60.618
3-6
65.089
+7, +1.068
98
Western Michigan
60.533
4-6
63.999
-2, -1.461
99
Arkansas St
60.454
2-6
60.496
-12, -3.511
100
Colorado St
60.394
3-7
68.473
-9, -2.970
101
Wyoming
60.374
4-5
66.288
-7, -1.799
102
San Jose St
59.636
1-6
73.324
-1, -1.535
103
UTEP
59.461
3-6
64.223
-3, -1.830
104
Toledo
58.324
4-5
62.981
+1, -0.669
105
Florida Atlantic
57.775
2-6
64.211
-2, -2.628
106
Miami OH
57.092
1-9
69.637
+4, +0.829
107
Memphis
56.493
2-7
65.272
+2, +0.224
108
Washington St
56.456
1-8
74.367
-1, -0.601
109
Louisiana-Lafayette
56.393
5-4
60.081
+2, +0.553
110
Army
56.245
3-6
62.777
-4, -1.270
111
Akron
56.143
2-7
63.751
+2, +1.719
112
Tulane
55.300
3-6
65.493
+3, +1.507
113
North Texas
53.786
2-7
61.436
-5, -2.988
114
Florida Int'l
52.932
2-7
64.656
-2, -1.804
115
Ball St
52.321
1-8
61.069
-1, -1.618
116
New Mexico St
50.752
3-6
62.264
+0, -1.412
117
Rice
49.356
0-9
68.455
+2, +3.585
118
New Mexico
49.196
0-9
66.669
+0, -0.071
119
Eastern Michigan
48.169
0-9
65.450
-2, -1.803
120
Western Kentucky
42.152
0-9
63.549
+0, -0.379