2009 Week 11 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 11 (games played thru 14-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the East Carolina at Tulsa game played this evening will be included in week 11 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

Alabama stays #1 as they have been nearly every week since week 3 and there is a bit of a shakeup behind them as Texas and TCU move up a spot each at the expense of Florida which drops to #4.  Florida drops in part due to only winning by 10 against a #51 South Carolina (while Alabama walloped a #49 Mississippi St. and Texas did the same to a #59 Baylor), but also due to prior opponent Tennessee losing badly to Ole Miss whom Florida has not played.  In any case, right now the computer would pick Alabama by 2.2 over Florida in the SEC championship game so it will be interesting to see what Vegas ultimately puts it at.

The surprise is probably TCU making the move into the top-3.  They came in to the week #4 and easily handled an 8-2 Utah team whose only other loss was on the road to Oregon, and couple that with TCU's win at 7-3 Clemson and 31 point win at 8-2 BYU says they move to #3.  Some may be surprise that Cincinnati drops a spot but a 3 point win at home over #36 West Virginia did not impress the computer.

We still have 6 undefeated teams and all are projected to stay that way with only Cincinnati projected in being in danger with a 45% chance of losing one game.
The computer had a good week against the spread after 2 fantastic ones going 32-27 and had about a push with Vegas going 48-11 picking winners against Vegas' 47-10.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Alabama	89.002	10-0	70.601	+0, +0.984
2	Texas	88.679	10-0	68.470	+1, +1.145
3	TCU	87.094	10-0	67.730	+1, +1.181
4	Florida	86.784	10-0	69.569	-2, -1.152
5	Oregon	83.470	8-2	71.989	+1, -0.090
6	Cincinnati	83.221	10-0	66.883	-1, -1.811
7	Boise St	82.988	10-0	63.873	+0, -0.317
8	Clemson	82.236	7-3	70.455	+0, +0.602
9	Virginia Tech	82.142	7-3	74.226	+0, +0.749
10	Georgia Tech	81.779	10-1	72.631	+1, +1.162
11	Oklahoma	81.519	6-4	69.410	+1, +1.072
12	Stanford	81.082	7-3	71.354	+5, +1.687
13	LSU	79.703	8-2	69.766	-3, -1.487
14	Oregon St	79.441	7-3	70.831	+4, +0.378
15	Pittsburgh	79.062	9-1	66.985	+0, -0.569
16	Miami FL	79.007	7-3	72.934	+0, -0.578
17	Arkansas	78.747	6-4	70.445	+6, +1.154
18	Ohio State	78.588	9-2	66.397	-4, -1.391
19	Oklahoma St	78.369	8-2	67.780	+3, +0.534
20	Mississippi	77.901	7-3	67.584	+8, +2.308
21	Nebraska	77.784	7-3	68.345	+4, +1.132
22	Southern Cal	77.342	7-3	72.875	-9, -2.684
23	Arizona	77.317	6-3	70.761	-4, -1.211
24	Texas Tech	76.758	6-4	67.150	-3, -1.086
25	Rutgers	75.894	7-2	60.089	+15, +2.780
26	Boston College	75.757	7-3	69.303	+3, +0.211
27	Iowa	75.662	9-2	68.827	-1, -0.217
28	Penn State	75.655	9-2	64.123	-4, -1.116
29	Tennessee	75.615	5-5	69.821	-9, -2.697
30	California	75.404	7-3	70.342	+1, +0.494
31	Auburn	75.219	7-4	69.837	-4, -0.480
32	North Carolina	75.170	7-3	68.831	+11, +2.380
33	Connecticut	74.963	4-5	70.179	+0, +0.620
34	Florida St	74.871	5-5	73.784	+7, +1.873
35	Utah	74.571	8-2	66.247	-5, -0.477
36	West Virginia	74.045	7-3	68.309	+0, +0.645
37	Brigham Young	73.752	8-2	66.141	-3, -0.579
38	Georgia	73.599	6-4	72.113	-2, +0.199
39	Air Force	73.219	7-4	63.011	+10, +1.017
40	Notre Dame	72.884	6-4	69.317	+2, -0.083
41	Missouri	72.691	6-4	69.409	+15, +2.642
42	Navy	72.520	8-3	66.203	+6, +0.316
43	South Florida	72.405	6-3	66.152	-11, -2.393
44	Wisconsin	72.247	8-2	66.231	+2, -0.247
45	Central Michigan	72.230	8-2	61.072	+6, +0.215
46	Houston	72.176	8-2	64.888	-11, -1.342
47	Kentucky	72.144	6-4	67.224	+0, -0.317
48	UCLA	72.143	5-5	72.723	-3, -0.355
49	Mississippi St	72.029	4-6	71.316	-5, -0.618
50	Wake Forest	71.944	4-7	72.638	-11, -1.447
51	South Carolina	71.263	6-5	72.179	+4, +0.304
52	Michigan St	71.011	6-5	66.753	+1, -0.293
53	Nevada	70.830	7-3	64.017	+10, +2.479
54	Texas A&M	70.588	5-5	68.711	-2, -1.105
55	Washington	70.540	3-7	75.699	-5, -1.554
56	Arizona St	70.278	4-6	69.189	-2, -0.949
57	Fresno St	69.895	6-4	66.201	-19, -3.501
58	Virginia	68.859	3-7	72.552	+4, +0.292
59	Baylor	68.391	4-6	70.716	+6, +0.347
60	Duke	68.343	5-5	66.763	-1, -0.929
60	Kansas	68.343	5-5	67.176	-2, -1.044
62	Minnesota	68.172	6-5	69.004	-2, -0.818
63	Temple	68.116	8-2	60.346	+5, +0.433
64	Iowa St	68.052	6-5	66.334	-3, -0.609
65	Southern Miss	67.955	6-4	61.719	+7, +1.233
66	East Carolina	67.818	5-4	67.417	+4, +1.066
67	Kansas St	67.124	6-5	66.084	-10, -2.363
68	Marshall	67.045	5-5	66.909	-2, -0.781
69	Troy	66.953	7-3	63.210	-5, -1.371
70	Central Florida	66.635	6-4	65.973	+9, +1.909
71	North Carolina St	66.281	4-6	65.909	+0, -0.448
72	Northwestern	65.983	7-4	62.640	+1, +0.131
73	Purdue	65.974	4-7	68.493	-4, -1.040
74	Northern Illinois	65.850	7-3	56.683	-7, -1.954
75	Bowling Green	65.530	5-5	66.260	+3, +0.777
76	Louisiana Tech	65.337	3-7	66.343	+8, +1.172
77	SMU	64.911	6-4	65.330	-1, -0.198
78	Middle Tennessee St	64.770	7-3	60.448	+3, +0.292
79	Ohio U.	64.508	7-3	61.332	-2, -0.277
80	Tulsa	64.501	4-5	62.944	+3, +0.322
81	Alabama-Birmingham	64.341	5-5	64.822	+5, +0.865
82	Louisville	64.121	4-6	67.941	-7, -1.006
83	Indiana	63.855	4-7	66.147	-1, -0.502
84	Michigan	63.569	5-6	63.608	-10, -1.597
85	Maryland	63.553	2-8	71.265	+2, +0.153
86	Idaho	63.332	7-4	65.266	-1, -0.693
87	Illinois	63.167	3-7	67.493	-7, -1.367
88	Syracuse	62.885	3-7	68.099	+0, -0.206
89	UNLV	62.724	4-7	67.468	+1, +0.023
90	Wyoming	62.173	5-5	66.930	+11, +1.695
91	Colorado	62.059	3-7	69.021	+1, +0.268
92	Vanderbilt	61.824	2-9	69.501	+2, +0.172
93	Utah St	61.794	3-7	65.396	+2, +0.502
94	San Diego St	61.672	4-6	64.461	-5, -1.107
95	Kent St	61.213	5-5	60.451	-2, -0.539
96	Colorado St	61.035	3-7	69.123	+2, +0.400
97	Hawaii	60.982	4-6	63.245	-1, +0.121
98	Buffalo	60.675	3-7	63.078	-1, -0.140
99	Western Michigan	60.164	5-6	61.976	+0, -0.418
100	UTEP	59.594	3-7	64.406	+2, +0.064
101	Louisiana-Monroe	59.509	6-4	61.083	-10, -2.387
102	Florida Atlantic	59.297	3-6	63.111	+2, +1.459
103	Toledo	57.477	4-6	63.685	+0, -0.903
104	Arkansas St	57.111	2-7	59.740	-4, -3.396
105	Memphis	55.952	2-8	64.898	+2, -0.596
106	Washington St	55.571	1-9	73.581	+2, -0.968
107	San Jose St	55.492	1-8	70.929	-1, -1.597
108	Miami OH	55.365	1-10	68.472	-3, -1.768
109	Louisiana-Lafayette	55.150	5-5	60.243	+0, -1.298
110	Army	55.043	4-6	60.393	+0, -1.261
111	Akron	54.604	2-8	63.283	+0, -1.578
112	Tulane	54.178	3-7	64.287	+0, -1.183
113	Ball St	52.931	1-9	61.563	+2, +0.562
114	North Texas	52.900	2-8	60.853	-1, -0.934
115	Florida Int'l	52.570	3-7	62.861	-1, -0.413
116	Rice	52.019	1-9	67.186	+1, +2.600
117	New Mexico	51.349	0-10	67.026	+1, +2.033
118	New Mexico St	50.302	3-7	62.110	-2, -0.557
119	Eastern Michigan	46.638	0-10	64.385	+0, -1.584
120	Western Kentucky	43.840	0-10	62.507	+0, +1.645