Sunday, November 15, 2009

2009 Week 11 College Football Ratings/Rankings and Summary

Ratings through week 11 (games played thru 14-Nov).  These are also at http://sites.google.com/site/computerratings/ncaa-football/ncaa-ratings.  Note that the East Carolina at Tulsa game played this evening will be included in week 11 and the ratings at the link above updated at its conclusion.

Alabama stays #1 as they have been nearly every week since week 3 and there is a bit of a shakeup behind them as Texas and TCU move up a spot each at the expense of Florida which drops to #4.  Florida drops in part due to only winning by 10 against a #51 South Carolina (while Alabama walloped a #49 Mississippi St. and Texas did the same to a #59 Baylor), but also due to prior opponent Tennessee losing badly to Ole Miss whom Florida has not played.  In any case, right now the computer would pick Alabama by 2.2 over Florida in the SEC championship game so it will be interesting to see what Vegas ultimately puts it at.

The surprise is probably TCU making the move into the top-3.  They came in to the week #4 and easily handled an 8-2 Utah team whose only other loss was on the road to Oregon, and couple that with TCU's win at 7-3 Clemson and 31 point win at 8-2 BYU says they move to #3.  Some may be surprise that Cincinnati drops a spot but a 3 point win at home over #36 West Virginia did not impress the computer.

We still have 6 undefeated teams and all are projected to stay that way with only Cincinnati projected in being in danger with a 45% chance of losing one game.
The computer had a good week against the spread after 2 fantastic ones going 32-27 and had about a push with Vegas going 48-11 picking winners against Vegas' 47-10.  Full prediction performance here and if you are interested in a newsletter with additional details on picks against the spread, best picks, and locks, see this.

Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
Rank
Team
Rating
Record
Schedule
Change
1
Alabama
89.002
10-0
70.601
+0, +0.984
2
Texas
88.679
10-0
68.470
+1, +1.145
3
TCU
87.094
10-0
67.730
+1, +1.181
4
Florida
86.784
10-0
69.569
-2, -1.152
5
Oregon
83.470
8-2
71.989
+1, -0.090
6
Cincinnati
83.221
10-0
66.883
-1, -1.811
7
Boise St
82.988
10-0
63.873
+0, -0.317
8
Clemson
82.236
7-3
70.455
+0, +0.602
9
Virginia Tech
82.142
7-3
74.226
+0, +0.749
10
Georgia Tech
81.779
10-1
72.631
+1, +1.162
11
Oklahoma
81.519
6-4
69.410
+1, +1.072
12
Stanford
81.082
7-3
71.354
+5, +1.687
13
LSU
79.703
8-2
69.766
-3, -1.487
14
Oregon St
79.441
7-3
70.831
+4, +0.378
15
Pittsburgh
79.062
9-1
66.985
+0, -0.569
16
Miami FL
79.007
7-3
72.934
+0, -0.578
17
Arkansas
78.747
6-4
70.445
+6, +1.154
18
Ohio State
78.588
9-2
66.397
-4, -1.391
19
Oklahoma St
78.369
8-2
67.780
+3, +0.534
20
Mississippi
77.901
7-3
67.584
+8, +2.308
21
Nebraska
77.784
7-3
68.345
+4, +1.132
22
Southern Cal
77.342
7-3
72.875
-9, -2.684
23
Arizona
77.317
6-3
70.761
-4, -1.211
24
Texas Tech
76.758
6-4
67.150
-3, -1.086
25
Rutgers
75.894
7-2
60.089
+15, +2.780
26
Boston College
75.757
7-3
69.303
+3, +0.211
27
Iowa
75.662
9-2
68.827
-1, -0.217
28
Penn State
75.655
9-2
64.123
-4, -1.116
29
Tennessee
75.615
5-5
69.821
-9, -2.697
30
California
75.404
7-3
70.342
+1, +0.494
31
Auburn
75.219
7-4
69.837
-4, -0.480
32
North Carolina
75.170
7-3
68.831
+11, +2.380
33
Connecticut
74.963
4-5
70.179
+0, +0.620
34
Florida St
74.871
5-5
73.784
+7, +1.873
35
Utah
74.571
8-2
66.247
-5, -0.477
36
West Virginia
74.045
7-3
68.309
+0, +0.645
37
Brigham Young
73.752
8-2
66.141
-3, -0.579
38
Georgia
73.599
6-4
72.113
-2, +0.199
39
Air Force
73.219
7-4
63.011
+10, +1.017
40
Notre Dame
72.884
6-4
69.317
+2, -0.083
41
Missouri
72.691
6-4
69.409
+15, +2.642
42
Navy
72.520
8-3
66.203
+6, +0.316
43
South Florida
72.405
6-3
66.152
-11, -2.393
44
Wisconsin
72.247
8-2
66.231
+2, -0.247
45
Central Michigan
72.230
8-2
61.072
+6, +0.215
46
Houston
72.176
8-2
64.888
-11, -1.342
47
Kentucky
72.144
6-4
67.224
+0, -0.317
48
UCLA
72.143
5-5
72.723
-3, -0.355
49
Mississippi St
72.029
4-6
71.316
-5, -0.618
50
Wake Forest
71.944
4-7
72.638
-11, -1.447
51
South Carolina
71.263
6-5
72.179
+4, +0.304
52
Michigan St
71.011
6-5
66.753
+1, -0.293
53
Nevada
70.830
7-3
64.017
+10, +2.479
54
Texas A&M
70.588
5-5
68.711
-2, -1.105
55
Washington
70.540
3-7
75.699
-5, -1.554
56
Arizona St
70.278
4-6
69.189
-2, -0.949
57
Fresno St
69.895
6-4
66.201
-19, -3.501
58
Virginia
68.859
3-7
72.552
+4, +0.292
59
Baylor
68.391
4-6
70.716
+6, +0.347
60
Duke
68.343
5-5
66.763
-1, -0.929
60
Kansas
68.343
5-5
67.176
-2, -1.044
62
Minnesota
68.172
6-5
69.004
-2, -0.818
63
Temple
68.116
8-2
60.346
+5, +0.433
64
Iowa St
68.052
6-5
66.334
-3, -0.609
65
Southern Miss
67.955
6-4
61.719
+7, +1.233
66
East Carolina
67.818
5-4
67.417
+4, +1.066
67
Kansas St
67.124
6-5
66.084
-10, -2.363
68
Marshall
67.045
5-5
66.909
-2, -0.781
69
Troy
66.953
7-3
63.210
-5, -1.371
70
Central Florida
66.635
6-4
65.973
+9, +1.909
71
North Carolina St
66.281
4-6
65.909
+0, -0.448
72
Northwestern
65.983
7-4
62.640
+1, +0.131
73
Purdue
65.974
4-7
68.493
-4, -1.040
74
Northern Illinois
65.850
7-3
56.683
-7, -1.954
75
Bowling Green
65.530
5-5
66.260
+3, +0.777
76
Louisiana Tech
65.337
3-7
66.343
+8, +1.172
77
SMU
64.911
6-4
65.330
-1, -0.198
78
Middle Tennessee St
64.770
7-3
60.448
+3, +0.292
79
Ohio U.
64.508
7-3
61.332
-2, -0.277
80
Tulsa
64.501
4-5
62.944
+3, +0.322
81
Alabama-Birmingham
64.341
5-5
64.822
+5, +0.865
82
Louisville
64.121
4-6
67.941
-7, -1.006
83
Indiana
63.855
4-7
66.147
-1, -0.502
84
Michigan
63.569
5-6
63.608
-10, -1.597
85
Maryland
63.553
2-8
71.265
+2, +0.153
86
Idaho
63.332
7-4
65.266
-1, -0.693
87
Illinois
63.167
3-7
67.493
-7, -1.367
88
Syracuse
62.885
3-7
68.099
+0, -0.206
89
UNLV
62.724
4-7
67.468
+1, +0.023
90
Wyoming
62.173
5-5
66.930
+11, +1.695
91
Colorado
62.059
3-7
69.021
+1, +0.268
92
Vanderbilt
61.824
2-9
69.501
+2, +0.172
93
Utah St
61.794
3-7
65.396
+2, +0.502
94
San Diego St
61.672
4-6
64.461
-5, -1.107
95
Kent St
61.213
5-5
60.451
-2, -0.539
96
Colorado St
61.035
3-7
69.123
+2, +0.400
97
Hawaii
60.982
4-6
63.245
-1, +0.121
98
Buffalo
60.675
3-7
63.078
-1, -0.140
99
Western Michigan
60.164
5-6
61.976
+0, -0.418
100
UTEP
59.594
3-7
64.406
+2, +0.064
101
Louisiana-Monroe
59.509
6-4
61.083
-10, -2.387
102
Florida Atlantic
59.297
3-6
63.111
+2, +1.459
103
Toledo
57.477
4-6
63.685
+0, -0.903
104
Arkansas St
57.111
2-7
59.740
-4, -3.396
105
Memphis
55.952
2-8
64.898
+2, -0.596
106
Washington St
55.571
1-9
73.581
+2, -0.968
107
San Jose St
55.492
1-8
70.929
-1, -1.597
108
Miami OH
55.365
1-10
68.472
-3, -1.768
109
Louisiana-Lafayette
55.150
5-5
60.243
+0, -1.298
110
Army
55.043
4-6
60.393
+0, -1.261
111
Akron
54.604
2-8
63.283
+0, -1.578
112
Tulane
54.178
3-7
64.287
+0, -1.183
113
Ball St
52.931
1-9
61.563
+2, +0.562
114
North Texas
52.900
2-8
60.853
-1, -0.934
115
Florida Int'l
52.570
3-7
62.861
-1, -0.413
116
Rice
52.019
1-9
67.186
+1, +2.600
117
New Mexico
51.349
0-10
67.026
+1, +2.033
118
New Mexico St
50.302
3-7
62.110
-2, -0.557
119
Eastern Michigan
46.638
0-10
64.385
+0, -1.584
120
Western Kentucky
43.840
0-10
62.507
+0, +1.645