Saturday, November 28, 2009

2009 Week 13 College Football Preview

Here is a preview of a few selected games for this week.  The computer has already gone 11-4 through games played thus far.  Last weeks highlighted games went a very good 4-1 against the spread basically nailing the Oregon/Arizona and Ohio St/Michigan margins, but also calling the Notre Dame and OU lines way too big.  The only miss was Stanford/Cal.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

Since this is a traditional rivalry weekend, I had trouble limiting myself to just 5 games, so this week you get 7.

In what should be one of the better games of the weekend, #11 Arkansas visits #13 LSU as 3.5 point underdogs while the computer picks LSU by 2.3.  The computer is 7-4 picking LSU ATS but only 6-5 for Arkansas so tough to say it is a strong pick.

#9 Georgia Tech hosts #40 Georgia hoping to keep their 1-loss season going and is picked by 7 but the computer likes them by much more at 12.4.  The computer is 6-4 picking GT games and they themselves are 7-3 ATS while Georgia is 3-8, making this seem a pretty good pick.

#26 USC hosts #42 UCLA trying to not end a disappointing season on yet another disappointing note.  Oddsmakers believe the good USC will show up with the line 13 but the computer picks them by only 7.3.  Neither team is good ATS this year but USC is bad (2-8) and the computer is 6-4 and 7-4 picking them this year, so another good pick.

In the game between closest ranked teams, #32 Utah visits #34 BYU as a 7.5 point dog but the computer has it only 2.9 points.  Nothing stands out in trends ATS, but the computer thinks Utah is actually better and it is only home field that gives BYU the straight up, so use that as you will.

In a game perhaps more important to #23 Oklahoma State, they visit #15 Oklahoma as 10 point underdogs.  Yes, the computer has OU ranked higher, but given the spread Vegas thinks so too.  All that said, 10 is too many, the computer having it at 4.7.  However, the computer is only 3-8 in Ok St. picks while it is 7-3 in OU picks ATS.

#45 Notre Dame visits #16 Stanford with Charlie Weis' job likely on the line.  The computer picks Stanford by 9.9 but the Notre Dame faithful have gotten the spread down to 7.5.  The computer is 8-3 picking Notre Dame games but only 5-6 on Stanford, but Notre Dame is only 3-8 ATS while Stanford is 8-3, so seems like a pretty strong pick, but the computer can't factor in emotion.

In a game where #3 Florida hopes they can at least win a close one like Alabama and Texas did, but would like to win easily for beauty points, they host #35 Florida State favored by an astonishing 24.5 while the computer has it at 16.  With Florida only 5-5 ATS this year it would seem like a strong pick, but Florida State is a worse 3-7.  It may depend on how FSU withstands early pressure from Florida to see if they can keep it close.

If you want more of the details behind the picks and which are the best picks and locks, take a look at and subscribe to my newsletter that is sent out weekly.

Enjoy the games.