Saturday, November 14, 2009

2009 Week 11 College Football Preview

Week 11 has already started and the computer is doing great going 5-2 against the spread in the games thus far picking the Ohio U. upset and going a perfect 7-0 picking winners.  Last weeks highlighted games went a 3-2 against the spread, although a couple of lines moved such that I could claim a perfect 5-0 if those were used.  In any case, here are some of the interesting games of the weekend.  Rankings listed are from my computer rankings.

I don't usually highlight games between FBS and FCS teams, but with 3 degrees of separation between Minnesota (#64 5-5) and South Dakota St. (#92 7-2) and the line being 18.5 while the computer predicts only 8.4, I'll throw it out there as an interesting one to watch.

Iowa visits Ohio State for likely the Big Televen crown and is a 17 point underdog but the computer has them only 7.1 point dogs.  The caveat is that the computer cannot take into account Iowa's injuries, other than how they affected last weeks games, so while it looks appealing, perhaps not a great pick, but it is a big game so I had to highlight it.

So, I could be throwing a couple of questionable, yet interesting, picks out there, how about a good one?  Utah visits TCU with TCU trying to stay undefeated and in the BCS mix.  Vegas has them strong 20 point favorites but Utah is 8-1 and #30 and the computer says 20 is far too much having the prediction at 13.9.  With Utah's one loss being on the road to what appears to be a pretty good Oregon team by only 7, and with 3 ways to get 2 degrees of separation through UNLV, Colorado St., and Air Force.

Given the situation, I yet again have to highlight a Notre Dame game.  While the computer didn't pick the upset last week, Navy plus the points was one of the strong picks of the week and again fans of the Golden Domers have put the line in such a position that the foe, Pitt, is a fairly strong pick (9.7) this time minus the points (6.5).  With 2 degrees of separation through Navy (whom Pitt beat by 13) this seems a reasonable pick.

Last, we go to the Pac-10 where USC looks to avenge the upset from a few years ago at the hands of Stanford, but also keep faint BCS bowl hopes alive against a Stanford team (#17 computer) that at 6-3 is playing well.  USC has been up and down and Vegas figures they will be up at home favoring them by 11.5 but the computer has them by only 3.6.  Separated by 2 games 6 ways at this point in the conference schedule, appears to be a pretty strong pick.

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Enjoy the games.