The 3 teams in question have the following chances of finishing perfect:
- Oregon - 81.7%
- Kansas State - 78.7%
- Notre Dame - 37.8%
It is safe to assume that any 2 undefeated results in them facing each other. It is also probably safe to assume that if Oregon and K-State do it, Notre Dame gets left out.
So, there is a 64.3% chance of Oregon and Kansas meeting as undefeated teams. But if one of them falters, Notre Dame could fill in. Running the different permutations results in a 75.7% chance of some combination of these teams facing each other as undefeated teams.
If you look at that number, there is a good gap between it and 100%. So what happens then? It is probable that should the SEC champ finish with 1-loss, they would be the choice if 2 of the aforementioned teams have a loss. So what are the chances of a 1-loss SEC champ?
Alabama has the best chance at 70.4%, but Georgia has a 27.5% chance too, and should Georgia falter and let Florida in the title game, they have a 20% chance. If we put these permutations together, we have a 99.2% chance of a 1-loss SEC champ.
That means that there is still a 24.1% chance of an SEC team making it to the BCS title game. Trust me, stranger things have happened.