Atlanta and Houston continue to lead the way as you might expect. But behind them, it is tight with Denver at 12-4 then five teams projected to finish 11-5.
In the NFC, Atlanta is projected to have a first round bye and the 49ers have the inside track to the 2nd one with Green Bay and Chicago close behind with the Packers getting the nod for the division based on current tie-breakers. The Giants would beat out the Cowboys, both 9-7, for the NFC East based on current tie-breakers and the Bears and Seahawks would pick up the wilcards. Seattle does have a 21% chance of being 9-7 and Tampa Bay and Dallas have decent shots at 10-6, so this could all certainly change and is not a lock by any stretch.
The AFC is a bit clearer with all four division winners alone at 11-5 or better but Pittsburgh is close at 10-6 but really would need some help to get the division given the current tie-breakers. The Colts, despite their bad loss, still hang on to the last wildcard and have only a 15% chance of 8-8, but the Bengals do have a 26% chance of 9-7 so this too isn't a lock.
I am also tracking the projected playoff teams by week so take a look at that to see how things change from week to week.
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | % chance | % +1 | % -1 |
| Houston | 14-2 | 33.9 | 12.7 | 33.1 |
| Atlanta | 13-3 | 33.3 | 23.1 | 24.8 |
| Denver | 12-4 | 45.7 | 31.1 | 19.5 |
| San Francisco | 11-4-1 | 32.2 | 18.4 | 28.4 |
| Baltimore | 11-5 | 30.4 | 28.5 | 18.0 |
| Green Bay | 11-5 | 35.2 | 28.2 | 20.9 |
| New England | 11-5 | 33.5 | 24.3 | 23.8 |
| Chicago | 11-5 | 29.7 | 15.8 | 29.5 |
| Seattle | 10-6 | 34.0 | 21.2 | 26.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 33.7 | 17.7 | 29.6 |
| NY Giants | 9-7 | 33.1 | 26.1 | 21.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 9-7 | 35.9 | 25.5 | 23.1 |
| Dallas | 9-7 | 32.8 | 18.8 | 28.4 |
| Indianapolis | 9-7 | 32.0 | 15.4 | 31.7 |
| Cincinnati | 8-8 | 32.5 | 26.2 | 21.2 |
| Minnesota | 8-8 | 34.0 | 24.4 | 23.9 |
| New Orleans | 8-8 | 31.0 | 16.9 | 30.0 |
| NY Jets | 7-9 | 31.3 | 26.9 | 20.0 |
| San Diego | 7-9 | 32.9 | 26.5 | 21.1 |
| Buffalo | 7-9 | 32.3 | 24.6 | 22.8 |
| Washington | 7-9 | 31.8 | 24.6 | 22.6 |
| Miami | 7-9 | 31.4 | 16.1 | 31.1 |
| Tennessee | 6-10 | 31.5 | 30.3 | 16.1 |
| Arizona | 6-10 | 32.6 | 30.1 | 16.9 |
| Detroit | 6-10 | 34.7 | 27.3 | 20.9 |
| St Louis | 5-10-1 | 33.2 | 25.4 | 22.4 |
| Carolina | 5-11 | 33.3 | 24.8 | 22.9 |
| Oakland | 5-11 | 36.7 | 23.9 | 24.9 |
| Philadelphia | 4-12 | 33.5 | 33.2 | 13.0 |
| Cleveland | 4-12 | 38.0 | 29.0 | 20.1 |
| Jacksonville | 3-13 | 33.6 | 22.1 | 26.4 |
| Kansas City | 2-14 | 40.1 | 27.5 | 22.1 |
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