Sunday, November 4, 2012

College Football Week 10 Ratings and Rankings - Oregon moves to #1

This week's ratings and rankings are now posted.

We have a new #1 in Oregon, moving up nearly a full rating point and 2 spots.  They are now ahead of Alabama, still #2, and K-State which drops to #3.  Notre Dame's unimpressive win at home over a now 4-5 and #66 Pitt drops them 2 spots to #6 allowing Oklahoma and Florida to move up.  LSU slots in at #7 moving up 2 spots despite the loss to Alabama.

Why these moves?  Oregon  moves up primarily due to beating a tough quality opponent on the road by 11 points (a bit more than expected).  Their prior opponents were a mix of up and down and more or less a wash.

Alabama actually lost a just over 0.3 ratings points despite beating LSU on the road.  The LSU game was a good result for them, but winning by just 4 was actually a bit less than expected so not the boost you might expect.  Additionally, Mississippi State, their best result of the year, lost big so that hurt their rating and correspondingly Alabama's win over them doesn't look quite so good.

Kansas State won and had a good rating from the game, but again like Alabama, it was just a bit less than expected.  Couple that with WVU and TTU losing making those good results not quite as strong and you have the slight drop.

And Notre Dame wins by just 3 at home against a not very good Pitt team.  Yes, Notre Dame beat OU convincingly a few weeks ago, but they've had some stinkers (Pitt and Purdue) that the other contenders have not had.

You can see the BCS compatible algorithm ratings and rankings as well where Notre Dame has moved to #1 and Alabama up to #3.  Note that Notre Dame's move is more due to K-State dropping (WVU and TTU losses hurting them) more than their win.  This algorithm ignores the margin of victory so Alabama and Notre Dame winning close ones just looks like any other win.

The top-25 is below, full ratings on the site.

1Oregon97.5769-070.707+2, +0.992
2Alabama96.4629-075.630+0, -0.335
3Kansas St95.8409-073.978-2, -1.172
4Oklahoma90.0696-274.201+1, +0.182
5Florida89.9038-178.628+1, +1.225
6Notre Dame88.6819-075.900-2, -1.402
7LSU87.2347-274.560+2, +2.592
8Texas A&M86.9937-274.026+5, +3.125
9Oregon St86.7207-178.327-1, +2.002
10Georgia86.7198-173.810+4, +2.989
11South Carolina86.4077-276.040+0, +2.084
12Southern Cal85.0456-374.986-2, +0.457
13Florida St84.5728-162.883+2, +1.473
14Ohio State83.81210-069.455+4, +1.927
15Stanford83.2107-275.046+1, +0.231
16Texas83.0557-275.739+3, +2.013
17Oklahoma St82.9945-371.835+0, +0.524
18Clemson82.7558-168.513+6, +3.537
19Texas Tech82.4946-375.494-12, -2.889
20Utah St82.3328-267.270+0, +1.380
21Arizona St82.3095-475.555+2, +2.146
22Arizona82.0575-478.046-10, -2.237
23UCLA81.4047-274.023+11, +4.874
24Nebraska80.7597-270.925+6, +2.993
25Brigham Young80.6205-472.450+0, +1.494