Sunday, November 11, 2012

College Football Week 11 Season Projections - Only 2 projected to be undefeated

The projected records for the regular season using results through week 11 are now available.  These projections now include projected conference championship games.

And then there were 2!  With Alabama's loss, and Notre Dame rating dropping a bit, just Oregon and Kansas State are projected to finish the season undefeated.  And both teams are definitely projected to do so at 82% and 79%.  This puts the chances of both occurring at 64% so a very good chance we have a match up of undefeated teams in the BCS Championship game.

Notre Dame still has a chance at a perfect season at 36%, but a 1-loss season is more likely at 64% due to having to visit USC.

Ohio State actually has a better shot at an undefeated season at 38%, but the computer still says 11-1 is more likely at 51%.

The teams with one or fewer losses below, full list on the site.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Oregon13-081.70.017.2
Kansas St12-078.70.020.0
Ohio State11-150.637.811.6
Notre Dame11-163.535.90.6
Alabama11-170.40.029.5
Florida10-157.90.042.1
Northern Illinois12-149.10.042.8