Sunday, November 11, 2012

New chart for showing projected records

I had an aha moment today with an idea of how to visually display the projected record my computer has for NFL teams.  For each team, I calculate the chances of each possible record, and then list the most likely record as the projected record along with the chance of finishing one game better or worse.

But that doesn't tell the whole story.  If you graph an individual teams possible projected records, you get something of a bell curve with the most likely record in the middle.  But it would be a pain to have 32 different charts to have to look at, so I've come up with a way to display all for a given conference on a single chart.

It is a little overwhelming at first, but take a look at this and let me know what you think.

What this is showing is a segment for each team for each possible win total indicating the likelihood of that record.  The size of the segment indicates a higher likelihood.

So for example, Atlanta in blue has a small chance of going 15-1 and a smaller chance of 10-6, the most likely record in between being 13-3.  Then Chicago is in red, the 49ers in orange/yellow, etc.

I used a stack bar chart to be able to fit it all on a single chart so it is a little complex, but I think it is somewhat useful.  Let me know what you think.

Oh, and the above is showing the current projected records after the Sunday night game.