Tuesday, November 20, 2012

NFL Week 11 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - Giants could be the team left out

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.  I've done this a few times this season for this case because I don't recall there ever being a single controversial call that was the clear deciding factor in the game, and this has clear playoff implications.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 11 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would be up 3 spots to #2 and Seattle would drop just one spot to #8.

RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
RankTeamRatingRecordScheduleChange
1Houston89.4489-180.050+0, +0.110
2Green Bay87.9928-281.772+3, +0.844
3New England87.8997-380.803-1, -0.095
4Denver87.7937-381.759-1, -0.027
5San Francisco87.4897-2-181.385-1, -0.014
6Atlanta85.2479-178.673+0, -0.037
7Chicago85.0447-381.268+1, +0.085
8Seattle84.3225-582.437-1, -0.739
9Baltimore83.9668-279.091+0, -0.023
10NY Giants82.8566-480.417+0, -0.053
11Tampa Bay82.8446-478.847+0, -0.056
12Pittsburgh81.9096-479.043+0, -0.034
13Minnesota81.5656-479.683+0, -0.085
14Dallas81.3825-582.204+0, -0.104
15New Orleans81.1265-580.080+0, +0.010
16NY Jets80.5334-682.566+0, -0.086
17Washington80.1434-680.775+0, -0.045
18Cincinnati80.1155-579.153+0, -0.021
19Detroit80.0834-681.730+0, +0.001
20San Diego79.7884-679.821+0, -0.023
21Arizona79.5014-682.577+0, -0.021
22St Louis79.1543-6-182.615+0, -0.008
23Miami79.1434-680.274+0, -0.011
24Buffalo78.8054-682.126+1, -0.028
25Carolina78.7752-882.760-1, -0.107
26Indianapolis78.3456-480.137+0, +0.074
27Tennessee76.8084-682.203+0, -0.001
28Cleveland75.9702-880.349+0, -0.025
29Philadelphia74.1563-781.218+0, -0.035
30Oakland73.4973-780.559+0, -0.012
31Jacksonville73.2081-982.388+0, +0.074
32Kansas City70.5681-980.709+0, -0.022

And here are the projected records where you see Green Bay winning the division outright (in the current actual projections they are projected to win the tie-breaker with Chicago at 11-5), and Seattle would fall to 9-7 and be tied with Dallas or the Giants for the last wildcard rather than winning it outright.  Should they tie with Dallas, they have the advantage with a head to head win, but should it be with the Giants, they'd likely lose out on conference record.

So, depending on how the NFC East plays out, there may be no change in the playoffs teams and seedings due to the bad call, or the Giants could be the team that loses a playoff spot because of it.

TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
TeamRecord% chance% +1% -1
Houston14-234.413.232.8
Atlanta13-333.323.124.8
Green Bay12-434.631.218.2
Denver12-445.731.119.5
San Francisco11-432.318.828.1
Baltimore11-530.428.517.9
New England11-533.424.024.1
Chicago11-529.916.129.3
Pittsburgh10-633.717.729.6
NY Giants9-733.225.622.2
Tampa Bay9-735.925.423.3
Dallas9-732.618.528.7
Seattle9-732.818.428.7
Indianapolis9-732.115.631.6
Cincinnati8-832.526.321.2
Minnesota8-834.223.125.4
New Orleans8-831.117.229.8
NY Jets7-931.326.720.2
San Diego7-932.926.621.0
Buffalo7-932.224.922.4
Washington7-931.824.622.5
Miami7-931.616.630.6
Arizona6-1032.330.216.6
Tennessee6-1031.830.216.4
Detroit6-1035.026.921.4
St Louis5-1033.025.721.9
Carolina5-1133.324.523.2
Oakland5-1136.723.924.8
Philadelphia4-1233.433.312.9
Cleveland4-1238.029.020.1
Jacksonville3-1333.622.426.1
Kansas City2-1440.127.522.1


I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.