NFL Week 11 "What If" Ratings, Rankings, and Projections - Giants could be the team left out

Below you will find my computer's ratings, rankings, and projections calculated using the week 3 Green Bay at Seattle game as a 12-7 win by Green Bay.  This is being done to see how things would be different if the officials had made the right call.  I've done this a few times this season for this case because I don't recall there ever being a single controversial call that was the clear deciding factor in the game, and this has clear playoff implications.

For the ratings and rankings, the change column is the difference from the actual week 11 ratings.  You'll see that Green Bay would be up 3 spots to #2 and Seattle would drop just one spot to #8.

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
Rank	Team	Rating	Record	Schedule	Change
1	Houston	89.448	9-1	80.050	+0, +0.110
2	Green Bay	87.992	8-2	81.772	+3, +0.844
3	New England	87.899	7-3	80.803	-1, -0.095
4	Denver	87.793	7-3	81.759	-1, -0.027
5	San Francisco	87.489	7-2-1	81.385	-1, -0.014
6	Atlanta	85.247	9-1	78.673	+0, -0.037
7	Chicago	85.044	7-3	81.268	+1, +0.085
8	Seattle	84.322	5-5	82.437	-1, -0.739
9	Baltimore	83.966	8-2	79.091	+0, -0.023
10	NY Giants	82.856	6-4	80.417	+0, -0.053
11	Tampa Bay	82.844	6-4	78.847	+0, -0.056
12	Pittsburgh	81.909	6-4	79.043	+0, -0.034
13	Minnesota	81.565	6-4	79.683	+0, -0.085
14	Dallas	81.382	5-5	82.204	+0, -0.104
15	New Orleans	81.126	5-5	80.080	+0, +0.010
16	NY Jets	80.533	4-6	82.566	+0, -0.086
17	Washington	80.143	4-6	80.775	+0, -0.045
18	Cincinnati	80.115	5-5	79.153	+0, -0.021
19	Detroit	80.083	4-6	81.730	+0, +0.001
20	San Diego	79.788	4-6	79.821	+0, -0.023
21	Arizona	79.501	4-6	82.577	+0, -0.021
22	St Louis	79.154	3-6-1	82.615	+0, -0.008
23	Miami	79.143	4-6	80.274	+0, -0.011
24	Buffalo	78.805	4-6	82.126	+1, -0.028
25	Carolina	78.775	2-8	82.760	-1, -0.107
26	Indianapolis	78.345	6-4	80.137	+0, +0.074
27	Tennessee	76.808	4-6	82.203	+0, -0.001
28	Cleveland	75.970	2-8	80.349	+0, -0.025
29	Philadelphia	74.156	3-7	81.218	+0, -0.035
30	Oakland	73.497	3-7	80.559	+0, -0.012
31	Jacksonville	73.208	1-9	82.388	+0, +0.074
32	Kansas City	70.568	1-9	80.709	+0, -0.022

And here are the projected records where you see Green Bay winning the division outright (in the current actual projections they are projected to win the tie-breaker with Chicago at 11-5), and Seattle would fall to 9-7 and be tied with Dallas or the Giants for the last wildcard rather than winning it outright.  Should they tie with Dallas, they have the advantage with a head to head win, but should it be with the Giants, they'd likely lose out on conference record.

So, depending on how the NFC East plays out, there may be no change in the playoffs teams and seedings due to the bad call, or the Giants could be the team that loses a playoff spot because of it.

Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Team	Record	% chance	% +1	% -1
Houston	14-2	34.4	13.2	32.8
Atlanta	13-3	33.3	23.1	24.8
Green Bay	12-4	34.6	31.2	18.2
Denver	12-4	45.7	31.1	19.5
San Francisco	11-4	32.3	18.8	28.1
Baltimore	11-5	30.4	28.5	17.9
New England	11-5	33.4	24.0	24.1
Chicago	11-5	29.9	16.1	29.3
Pittsburgh	10-6	33.7	17.7	29.6
NY Giants	9-7	33.2	25.6	22.2
Tampa Bay	9-7	35.9	25.4	23.3
Dallas	9-7	32.6	18.5	28.7
Seattle	9-7	32.8	18.4	28.7
Indianapolis	9-7	32.1	15.6	31.6
Cincinnati	8-8	32.5	26.3	21.2
Minnesota	8-8	34.2	23.1	25.4
New Orleans	8-8	31.1	17.2	29.8
NY Jets	7-9	31.3	26.7	20.2
San Diego	7-9	32.9	26.6	21.0
Buffalo	7-9	32.2	24.9	22.4
Washington	7-9	31.8	24.6	22.5
Miami	7-9	31.6	16.6	30.6
Arizona	6-10	32.3	30.2	16.6
Tennessee	6-10	31.8	30.2	16.4
Detroit	6-10	35.0	26.9	21.4
St Louis	5-10	33.0	25.7	21.9
Carolina	5-11	33.3	24.5	23.2
Oakland	5-11	36.7	23.9	24.8
Philadelphia	4-12	33.4	33.3	12.9
Cleveland	4-12	38.0	29.0	20.1
Jacksonville	3-13	33.6	22.4	26.1
Kansas City	2-14	40.1	27.5	22.1

I'll continue to calculate these each week so we can see how things would be different.