Monday, November 26, 2012

USTA 2012 year end ratings are out - How did my Estimated Dynamic NTRP do?

It turns out that despite the lack of a notice on TennisLink, year-end ratings are in fact being published today and they have even done so well in advance of the traditional 5pm.  With that, TennisLink is now enduring its peak load for the year as we all check to see if we or our prospective teammates have been bumped up/down so we can know how to assemble our teams for 2013.

I've been generating Estimated Dynamic NTRP reports for anyone interested in a preview of what their year-end rating may be and the details behind it and with a number of reports done, it is now time to compare what I estimated with what year-end ratings ended up being.

Of all the reports I did, 79% estimated the player to be at the right level.  But I consider being within 0.05 to be an acceptable margin for error considering it is just an estimate and an additional 9% or 88% total fell within this range.  Of the remaining 12%, I had 3% estimated too high and 9% estimated too low.

All those I estimated too high were self-rates that went to playoffs, so since I don't attempt to estimate the benchmark part of the calculation, I don't feel too bad about missing here.  And I did correctly estimate a self-rate being bumped down so I don't think I have a general problem with overrating self-rated players.

Of those I estimated too low, one went to playoffs (benchmark calculation likely kicked in) and one was just 0.07 from being estimated to be bumped up and also went to playoffs (benchmark calculation kicked in), so I don't feel too bad about these.

So I'll take 88% accuracy where most of the misses have explanations that I actually commented on being possible in the report I generated.

Even though ratings are out, if you want to know why your rating is where it is, I am still generating reports so contact me if you are interested.

Update 12/20: More reports have been generated and the accuracy is now at 92%.