As a reminder, the simulations use the top-10 average for each team using my estimated ratings, and then account for some variation in play by each team and run through a million iterations to see what the most common result might be.
Next, we'll look at the 18 & Over 5.0+ men that is coming up this weekend in Orlando, FL. Here is the link to the earlier simulation write-up.
The most likely teams to make the semis are:
- Intermountain - 99%
- Pacific Northwest - 97%
- Northern California - 66%
- Midwest - 60%
Note that the top-2 percentages are really very high. I am perhaps not allowing for enough variability in my simulations, but I'm going with this and we'll see how well it predicts. Those top teams really are separated and happen to have easier schedules to boot.
Note also that these are not the top-4 rated teams, as schedule strengths are a factor and one of the above teams slips in to the semis without being one of the highest rated 4 due to an easier schedule.
The chances of these teams advancing is very close for the top-2, so tie-breakers will come into play for the seeding in all likelihood, but if they are seeded as I list them, in the semis, Intermountain would be favored over Midwest and PNW over Northern Cal. In the final Intermountain would be the narrow pick.
Should one of the above teams falter, Florida and Texas are not far back, Southern Cal is also dark horse along with Caribbean to find their way in if the stars align.
If you are on one of the teams, or any team going to Nationals, it is not too late to get more details from my simulation or a flight report to scout opponents and plan your line-ups. While the above is what the simulation says, the ratings aren't perfect between sections, players have good and bad days, not everyone will make the trip or players other than the top-10 will play, so some smart captaining can still go a long way and my reports can really help. Contact me if interested in any reports.
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